NFL Week 9 Picks: Chiefs v. Raiders and Colts v. Eagles

This week marks the exact halfway point of the 17-week NFL season.

To say it has been a strange season would be an understatement.

Teams that were supposed to be good are lousy, while others that seemed hopeless are sitting in first place.

With these Week 9 NFL picks and odds, I’ll try to bring some order to the chaos.

There are two games that offer some nice value this week—an unlikely battle that will have a big impact on the top of the AFC West; and an inter-conference contest between public teams.

Oakland -2.5 vs. Kansas City (Sunday, November 7, 4:15 pm ET)

The Chiefs have been a good story this year, but I’m not that impressed by their last month. They are 2-2 over that stretch, but their wins were an overtime game against Buffalo and a win against Jacksonville. 

Before that, their wins came against a lousy San Francisco team, a lousy Cleveland team, and a struggling San Diego team. These guys have benefited as much from their schedule as anything.

Now they find themselves on the road where they aren’t comfortable, and are up against an Oakland team that is playing better football than anyone in the league the last two weeks. Winning their last two games by a combined 92-17, they are confident offensively, and disciplined and effective on defense.

They'll carry that momentum forward another week against a hated rival, in front of a fired up home crowd excited to finally see some decent football after years of suffering.

Oakland has solid edges on both sides of the ball at home against Kansas City.

Being able to take the Raiders and be on the right side of the key number of three is an attractive option in my eyes.

Indianapolis +3 at Philadelphia (Sunday, November 7, 4:15 pm ET)

I don’t typically pay a lot of attention to ATS trends, but two jump out when looking at this game—the Colts are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, and Philadelphia has covered just three times in their last 10 games.

Both things point convincingly to the Colts.

Indy has won five of their last six, and in recent weeks, they have rounded into solid form, looking more like the Colts of old. The offense has been clicking along despite injuries, and the defense is finding its way in recent weeks—Dwight Freeney was particularly impressive last week.

Philadelphia has had issues with cornerbacks and is struggling to find an answer. There is no one more capable of exploiting that than Peyton Manning. Philadelphia has had some strong QB play at times, but it hasn’t been consistent—largely because of the changes between the two players. That inconsistency makes it hard for me to trust the Eagles when the opponents are so stable at the position.

Part of the reason the NFL odds are what they are is that Indy is coming off a short week, while Philly is coming off a bye. I don’t see the significance. Indy bounces back well from short weeks traditionally, while the benefits of bye weeks are often overstated by the betting public.

We get the Colts and the key number of three, and that’s good enough for me.