Buffalo Bills Vs. Chicago Bears: Week 9 Preview and Keys to the Game
This Sunday, the Buffalo Bills and the Chicago Bears will cross over the border to play in Toronto. This is officially known as a home game for the Bills, who are hoping to win a regular season game anywhere, at home, on a neutral site or on the road. The Bills are still the only NFL team seeking their first win this year.
This is the third straight contest since coming out of their bye week, where the Bills are facing a team that is battling for first place in their division. The Bears are sitting at 4-3 in the NFC North and are a half game behind the Green Bay Packers.
The Bills are coming off two consecutive overtime road losses—first place teams Baltimore and Kansas City—so they are hopeful their improved play of late will increase their chances of capturing their first win of the season. The Bears had dropped two close contests of their own, losing at home to both Seattle and Washington by a field goal. They had a bye week last week, so you know they will be ready and rested to play the Bills.
Check out the rest of the slide show to learn more about the key matchups for this contest.
Top Performers Featured in this Game
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You won't find many players from either team gracing the top 10 category lists of the NFL because that is just not how these teams are built.
The players that are having a noteable start to their year are:
For the Bills:
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is the No. 9 ranked QB Passer Rating in the NFL with 91.1 Jay Cutler is at 84.1
WR Steve Johnson is tied for No. 6 in the NFL in TD Receptions with six.
RB C.J. Spiller is No. 2 in the NFL with 763 yards in kickoff returns.
Safety Donte Whitner is tied for 10th in the NFL with 65 tackles, which leads the Bills.
For the Bears:
They do not have anyone ranked in the top 10 in any offensive category. But on defense, they have:
CB D.J. Moore who is tied for eighth in the NFL with three interceptions
LB Brian Urlacher is tied for fourth in the NFL with two fumble recoveries
CB Chris Tillman is tied for fourth in the NFL with three forced fumbles so far.
The oddest stat for both teams: Bills kicker Rian Lindell is tied at two for the team lead in forcing fumbles with LB Akin Ayodele. You just don't expect that from your kicker,
How Do These Teams Stack Up on Paper?
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This figures to be an interesting contest because there are some clear issues with both teams that will either be exploited or will prove to be things that are in the process of being fixed.
For the Bills, they are dead last in the NFL in the following areas:
Most points allowed per game average: 30.1
Most rushing yards allowed per game average: 188
Largest margin of point differential: minus-80
And of course, the elephant in the room, zero wins for the year.
For the Bears, they are not alone, as they are dead last in the NFL in:
Sacks allowed: 31...by comparison; the Bills have allowed 18
Converting third downs: a paltry 17.9 percent,
Expect some of these figure to change, as the Bears are only averaging 88 yards per game on the ground, so the Bills anemic rush defense will catch a break for one week.
Looking at the Bears Weapons
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On offense, the Bears have Jay Cutler as their starting QB, and he is backed up by a name familiar to Bills fans—Todd Collins. Collins was originally drafted by the Bills and served as a backup to Jim Kelly once upon a time. It would be good news for the Bills if Collins was forced in to the game, noting the skills that have declined over the years.
Cutler was recently guilty of throwing four interceptions in one game to the same player—DeAngelo Hall of the Washington Redskins. Imagine after picks two and three, that he figured he could still keep challenging him. Some people never learn.
The Bears offer other talent on offense, ranging from running backs Matt Forte and Chester Taylor, tight end Greg Olsen and wide receivers Johnny Knox and Devin Hester.
On defense, the Bears should get Lance Briggs back, to go along with their best known player on defense, linebacker Brian Urlacher. The Bears leading sacker is defensive tackle Israel Idonije. Their cornerbacks D.J. Moore and Charles Tillman have contributed five interceptions on the year, while the Bills secondary has come up with none.
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What Are the Keys for the Bills?
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For the Bills, they need to follow up on the momentum of the Chiefs game and have the defense show improvement for another week. The Bears already have trouble converting on third down, so it is up to the Bills to make sure that continues. The Bears have lots of trouble protecting Jay Cutler, so the Bills should be able to generate some pressure for once, so predicting that the Bills will get their first secondary interception of the year is not that far-fetched.
The true test will come when the Bills have the ball, because the Bears boast a tough defense. The Bears defense is ranked No. 5 overall, allowing only 305 yards per game. They are the hardest team in the NFL to convert against on third down, as they are only allowing 29.6 percent first down conversions. So, for the Bills to win the time of possession battle, they will need to eliminate the negative plays on first and second downs.
The Bears have the No. 5 hardest defense to run against in the league, allowing only 89 yards per game. Their pass defense is not as stout, as they give up 210 yards a game, good for 15th. The Bills will have to take care of the ball this week and not give any crazy turnovers, which cost them dearly in both of the overtime games.
The Bills are expecting their top cornerback to return Sunday, as Terrence McGee is due to be back to the fold. Like the Bears have missed Lance Briggs, the Bills have missed McGee.
Bills Will Need To Contain Johnny Knox
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Johnny Knox has been the most productive weapon for Jay Cutler in the Bears offense. So far this year, Knox has caught 24 passes, good for 478 yards. The thing that stood out to me, is that he is averaging a whopping 19.9 yards per catch, which is huge. Of his 24 catches, 20 have gone for a first down, so when they need a big play, they look to Knox. You can bet the Bills are aware of this, as he has already been targeted 47 times this season, meaning he is only catching every other ball thrown his way.
Good week for Terrence McGee to be back to health.
Will the Bills Use Their First Slot To Claim Any Waived Players?
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Randy Moss hit the waiver wire this week, as did San Diego linebacker Shawne Merriman. My favorite Moss play this year was when he allowed Jairus Bryd to strip him of a fumble recovery in the Patriots game earlier this year (see picture).
As the worst team in the league by the current standings, the Bills have the first right at claiming either player this week off the waiver wire. Once they have cleared waivers, the players will probably be looking to negotiate a new contract to play out the rest of the year?
Should the Bills bother to put a claim in on either player? Rest assured that Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey have discussed both scenarios, and Nix is the one that knows Merriman best. The Bills seldom put any pressure on the passer, but does Merriman have anything left to give or is his best days behind him?
Moss has been a thorn in the Bills side for a long time. He would probably refuse to play for the Bills as his prima dona attitude has continued to be demonstrated this year. The Bills aren't looking for more problems, so my best guess is that they will pass on him. If Nix thinks that Merriman has something left, that could be a different story.
(Editor note) After this story was written, the Bills did in fact claim Shawne Merriman off of waivers. Aaron Maybin was spared for now, as the Bills placed starting tackle (and currently injured) Cornell Green on the I.R. list. Merriman will probably not play in the Bears game, but hopes to dial up the Bills pass rush at least one notch or two.
What Are the Chances for Bills Earning Their First Win?
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Chan Gailey has to know that the Bears had the luxury of two weeks of preparation for this game, so it will be up to Gailey to add some new things to the arsenal on offense and defense for this game.
The Bills have handed the ball off to Fred Jackson at least 20 times in each of the last two games, and it is no accident that the Bills were in each game to the end. That has to continue for the Bills to have a chance. Even if they don't crank out big yards each play, they have to stay committed to the ground game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the offense had a hiccup against the Chiefs athletic defense last week. The offense will need to come back to the way they produced against the Ravens, but the Bears defense will not be a pushover by any stretch of the imagination.
Shawn Nelson was not involved at all last week, so it will be curious to see if he sees more action this week. The Toronto crowd has been disappointed for the last two years, so hopefully they liked what they saw from the Bills in the last two weeks and will come out in numbers and give the Bills a feeling of playing in a home game.
Steve Johnson has now caught a TD pass in five straight games, tying the all-time Bills franchise mark set by Elbert Dubenion, Lee Evans and Eric Moulds. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown a TD pass in eight straight starts, so continuing those streaks would be a good thing this Sunday.
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