Liver's Thursday and Saturday Week 16 NFL Picks

I had a true Michael Corleone moment over this God-awful weekend—and unfortunately, I mean a Godfather III moment.

Just when I thought the season (picks wise) couldn’t get any worse, last weekend pulled me back down to reality and bit me in the ass like an eight-in-the-morning hangover.  

A topic for conversation…apparently Bill Parcells is seriously considering taking the VP of Football Operations job for the Atlanta Falcons. Is there ANYONE who really thinks that this is going to work?

The Falcons are worse off than the Cowboys were when Parcells took over. I saw a tired, beaten down coach last season who's team mimicked him. While he wouldn’t be coaching in Atlantam, this is a nonetheless a rebuilding job that could wipe him out.

Is Bill Parcells the type who can sit on the phone and chat up other GMs? Make draft picks?

As a Cowboys fan, he definitely hit on some picks (DeMarcus Ware) but misfired more often than not (Marcus Spears, Jacob Rogers, and Julius Jones, just to name a few).

Do you want him hiring one of his cronies as head coach? Do you want to see him bring in some more of his old QBs? 
 
The man is a coach. It’s in his blood. And he’s supposed to come in and fix arguably the worst franchise in the NFL right now?

No, I don’t think Miami is the worst. Miami has a new stadium and doesn’t have the PR nightmares that the Falcons have.  (Any thoughts on the matter are welcome).

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Bobby Petrino, Bud Selig, Roger Clemens, ALL college presidents and BCS conference commissioners, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week against the spread: 4-12

2007 record against the spread: 98-116-10
 

Thursday, December 20th
 
Pittsburgh at St. Louis (+7 1⁄2)

Pittsburgh needs to get their war face on—and quick.

This is the wrong time for a two and potentially three game losing streak. Pittsburgh finds themselves now TIED with CLEVELAND for first in their division.

New England and Jacksonville had their way with Pittsburgh’s run defense, and the Steelers could be on a downslide. Even though they are locked into a wildcard game, they need to win this game to get some confidence going into the playoffs.

Pick: St. Louis
 

Saturday, December 22nd
 
Dallas at Carolina (+13)

Last week's loss against Filthy could be an aberration. Or, like previous Decembers, could be the beginning of the end for Dallas.

Seeing such a listless, gutless performance by the supposedly unstoppable offense has to give Cowboys fans some pause. In my case, it flat out stopped the movie. 

Now if Dallas wins their last two and gets home field, last weekend's performance will be washed away. If however the team loses another game in December and give up home field, then the ghosts of December's past will definitely become a factor.

No Andre Gurode, no Roy Williams, and no Pat Watkins this week—which means that the Cowboys will be weak at center and safety, excluding Ken Hamlin. Romo needs to have a good game and put to rest any lingering doubts about his throwing thumb.

Carolina, led by Cowboys training camp cut QB Matt Moore, comes off a shocking 13-10 upset of Seattle which may have left this team a little drained emotionally. Moore isn’t going to beat anyone by himself, which means the Panthers front four needs to pressure Romo and third-year lineman Cory Procter, who is set to make his first NFL start at center. 

Look for some false starts and maybe a bad snap or two early from the Cowboys.  Dallas needs to show that they can win convincingly in December before I lay any big number on them again.

Pick: Carolina