NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 6: Best Bet vs. New York Jets

SpreadSHREDDER Week 5 Record: 2-1

Overall Record: 9-5-1


Last week, the SpreadSHREDDER was a late pick-six away from going 3-0, and unbeaten for the second time this year (thanks Brett).  With their cover win on Monday night, the New York Jets got the better of the SpredSHREDDER for the second straight week, which brings us to our next point...

DENVER (+3) OVER NEW YORK JETS {Bodog}

We called the Jets out as being somewhat overrated early in the season, although we still like them to make the playoffs.  Three times, we've picked against Gang Green, and we've gone 1-2 ATS in those games.  The SpreadSHREDDER's best bet (the pick that leads the SpreadSHREDDER) is 5-0 ATS this season, so with the New York Jets firmly in the cross hairs of this week's best bet in the SpreadSHREDDER, something has got to give.

The Jets will be coming off an emotional win on national television against the Minnesota Vikings, a win that was phony in that Mark Sanchez' yards per attempt (a microscopic 3.76 YPA) were fewer than that of Brett Favre's (6.32 YPA), who was the losing quarterback despite such a disparity. 

Traveling across two time zones to play their third road game in four weeks, and with limited rest, expect the New York Jets to come out flat against the Denver Broncos who will be coming off of a phony loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Don't believe all the hype when it comes to the Jets defense.  While they are dominant as a unit, their pass defense can be had as evidenced by Favre and the Vikings moving the ball at will against them in the second half.  Chad Henne of the Miami Dolphins experienced similar success against what we're being told is the best defense in the league.

Now, this fatigued defense is going to have to cope with the second-leading passer in the NFL on the road, and we simply don't like their chances.  The Bronos have immense value as a home underdog in this one. 

DENVER, 24-21.

JACKSONVILLE (+3) OVER TENNESSEE {Bodog}

The Titans will be coming off of a phony win, influenced by turnovers, penalties and despite Vince Young registering 5.82 yards per attempt compared to Tony Romo's 7.12.  Beating the Cowboys is similar in emotional value to winning a big game on national television as the Cowboys are widely considered "America's team".

Coming off an emotional victory and playing their third road game in four weeks against the Jaguars, who will be seeking revenge for a loss to the Titans last season, makes the Titans an inflated favorite.

The Jaguars' emotional edge will be strengthened as a home underdog on a nationally televised game, as this team will figure to play over their heads in hopes of showing a mass viewing audience what they are capable of.

Despite scoring 30+ points in back to back games, a statistic usually indicative of becoming a favorite in the subsequent game, the Jaguars still went off as a home underdog.  Expect such a sign of disrespect by the odds-makers to further aid the Jaguars emotionally in a rare Monday night showcase for this suddenly surging team. 

JACKSONVILLE, 26-21.

NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) OVER BALTIMORE {Sportsbook.com}

The New England Patriots will be coming off of a bye to seek revenge against the team that embarrassed them in the playoffs last season, handing them their first home loss of the Belichik/Brady regime.

Enjoying a distinct advantage of having an elite coach and quarterback with two weeks to prepare for an opponent, the Patriots are 3-1 ATS coming off of a bye week in the last four seasons. The Ravens will be coming off of an unassumingly phony win against the Denver Broncos, facilitated by a rather pedestrian performance by Joe Flacco.

The departure of Randy Moss will be sure to take its toll on the Patriots in the long term, but always remember that elite coaching has lead this team to an 11-5 record in the past without its hall of fame quarterback.  Furthermore, the Patriots have had an extra week to adjust to life without Moss, and Tom Brady will be more than motivated to prove that he can still put up impressive statistics without his former go-to guy.

Expect the Patriots to get their revenge in a pivotal game at home. 

NEW ENGLAND, 27-14.

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