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EDEN PRAIRIE, MN - OCTOBER 7:  Wide receiver Randy Moss #84 of the Minnesota Vikings takes his first practice after re-joining the Vikings at Winter Park on October 7, 2010 in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.  (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
EDEN PRAIRIE, MN - OCTOBER 7: Wide receiver Randy Moss #84 of the Minnesota Vikings takes his first practice after re-joining the Vikings at Winter Park on October 7, 2010 in Eden Prairie, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

Fantasy Football Week 5: Randy Moss, Marshawn Lynch, And Big Week 5 Matchups

Erik FrenzOct 8, 2010

Week 5 fantasy football advice, as well as good sleepers and sit 'em start 'em advice, will probably be a big search topic on Friday morning into the weekend.

Fans want to know who they should sit and who they should start, as well as to get some analysis on the big trades of Randy Moss and Marshawn Lynch over the week.

There's a lot to cover, so let's get right to it.

Kyle Orton Will Lay An Egg Vs. Stout Ravens Defense

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DENVER - SEPTEMBER 26:  Quarterback Kyle Orton #8 of the Denver Broncos delivers a pass against the Indianapolis Colts at INVESCO Field at Mile High on September 26, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. Orton passed for 476 yards as the Colts defeated the Broncos 27
DENVER - SEPTEMBER 26: Quarterback Kyle Orton #8 of the Denver Broncos delivers a pass against the Indianapolis Colts at INVESCO Field at Mile High on September 26, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. Orton passed for 476 yards as the Colts defeated the Broncos 27

We're only four weeks into the season, and people are already talking about Kyle Orton being a candidate for his first Pro Bowl appearance. Remember when Brett Favre went to the Pro Bowl even though he tanked it in the last five weeks as a Jet?

I'm not predicting Orton will suddenly lay eggs like it's Easter, but this week's matchup against the Ravens certainly isn't doing him any favors.

Through four weeks, the Ravens are the top-ranked pass defense in the league. Even Josh McDaniels' pass-happy system can't put up big enough numbers to overcome that kind of production, and even though the Ravens may have a depleted secondary, the Broncos simply lack a dynamic threat in the passing game.

Prediction: 20-for-40, 278 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions

Ryan Torain Will Run Through The Green Terrain

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PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 03:  Ryan Torain #46 of the Washington Redskins runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles on October 3, 2010 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Redskins defeated the Eagles 17-12.  (Photo by Jim McIsaa
PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 03: Ryan Torain #46 of the Washington Redskins runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles on October 3, 2010 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Redskins defeated the Eagles 17-12. (Photo by Jim McIsaa

There must be something about Ryan Torain that head coach Mike Shanahan likes.

I can tell you at least one thing about him you should like this week: he faces the Green Bay Packers, who have given up 5.2 yards per carry, second most of any defense, and have allowed five touchdowns through their first four games.

He was moderately effective last week against the Eagles, although they've also been generous to opposing backs this season. Still, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to expect another productive week from another Shanahan gem.

Prediction: 17 carries, 72 yards, one touchdown

Marshawn Lynch Won't Go Into "Beast Mode" Vs. Chicago Bears

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GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 19: Nick Barnett #56 of the Green Bay Packers tackles Marshawn Lynch #23 of the Buffalo Bills at Lambeau Field on September 19, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Bills 34-7. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Im
GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 19: Nick Barnett #56 of the Green Bay Packers tackles Marshawn Lynch #23 of the Buffalo Bills at Lambeau Field on September 19, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Bills 34-7. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Im

Anytime a trade happens in the season, the fantasy world immediately reacts in knee-jerk fashion, finding any and every stat to support whatever their hypothesis may be on what to expect from that player in the future.

For Lynch, here are some numbers to look at: Chicago's defense ranks sixth against the run, and only gives up 3.5 yards per carry. The Seahawks only run the ball 41 percent of the time, and with 88 run plays they have the fifth-lowest total in the league.

Don't forget, Lynch was traded to a team that already features a good back in Justin Forsett, and the two will likely be forced into the fantasy owners worst nightmare, a time share.

Icing on the cake? Yummy...oh, um, Lynch has yet to score a touchdown and his stats may be slightly skewed by a 79-yard performance on only 13 carries against the Patriots. In a road game against this Bears defense, I'd expect the "Beast" to be quite tame.

Prediction: 10 carries, 42 yards

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Beanie Wells Set To Go Off Against Saints

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GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 02:  Runningback Beanie Wells #26 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football against Chris Wilson #95 and Kevin Barnes #25 of the Washington Redskins during the first quarter of the preseason NFL game at the University of Phoeni
GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 02: Runningback Beanie Wells #26 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football against Chris Wilson #95 and Kevin Barnes #25 of the Washington Redskins during the first quarter of the preseason NFL game at the University of Phoeni

The Cardinals are shrouded in uncertainty through the first four weeks. One fact remains fairly certain: They don't have an aerial attack minus Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. So what does that mean? More touches for the running backs.

Tim Hightower had the lone touchdown in last weekend's 41-10 romping at the hands of the San Diego Chargers. The Cardinals still air it out more than they grind it out, but the balance is close at around 60-40, and that should be enough to get Wells some points against a pitiful Saints rush defense that currently ranks 29th.

Prediction: 15 carries, 73 yards, one touchdown

Greg Olsen's Big Day

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CHICAGO - SEPTEMBER 27:  Greg Olsen #82 of the Chicago Bears runs for yards after the catch against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on September 27, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO - SEPTEMBER 27: Greg Olsen #82 of the Chicago Bears runs for yards after the catch against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on September 27, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The Panthers defense has been bad this year. Really bad. But they're almost the worst defense in the league at defending tight ends, as they rank 31st against the men in the middle through four games.

Olsen currently has 15 receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns, and figures to only add to those numbers against a Panthers defense that not only can't defend tight ends, but can't get the type of pressure on Jay Cutler that the Giants got last week.

Prediction: seven receptions, 87 yards, one touchdown

Bench All Your Eagles

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CINCINNATI - AUGUST 20:  Jeremy Maclin #18 of the Philadelphia Eagles is pictured during the NFL preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on August 20, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI - AUGUST 20: Jeremy Maclin #18 of the Philadelphia Eagles is pictured during the NFL preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on August 20, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The 49ers haven't done anything to convince people that they're a defense capable of making stops this year.

But Kevin Kolb hasn't done anything to prove that he's capable of utilizing the multiple weapons he's been surrounded with. Yes, we have a very small sample size to work with, but if there was ever a time for the 49ers to finally click, it might be at home in a game they desperately need to win.

Dwayne Bowe Won't Play As Well As You May Think

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ATLANTA - AUGUST 13:  Dwayne Bowe #82 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on during the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on August 13, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA - AUGUST 13: Dwayne Bowe #82 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on during the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on August 13, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Fantasy owners who have been patient with Bowe could be rewarded over the coming weeks with his baby-soft schedule of awful pass defenses (Texans, Jaguars, Bills, Raiders) coming up.

Matt Cassel and the Chiefs aren't exactly the most high-powered offenses, but three of those teams (minus the Texans) rank in the bottom half of the league against No. 1 receivers.

While the Colts may rank fairly low against the pass (in the 20s in nearly every category), they rank second in the league against the No. 1 option, giving up only 23 yards per game to such receivers.

Although Cassel could be a viable option, I'd bench Bowe if you have better options.

Prediction: four receptions, 38 yards

"Get Out Your No. 84 Jerseys"

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EDEN PRAIRIE, MN - OCTOBER 7:  Wide receiver Randy Moss #84 of the Minnesota Vikings takes his first practice after re-joining the Vikings at Winter Park on October 7, 2010 in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.  (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
EDEN PRAIRIE, MN - OCTOBER 7: Wide receiver Randy Moss #84 of the Minnesota Vikings takes his first practice after re-joining the Vikings at Winter Park on October 7, 2010 in Eden Prairie, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

From one team with Super Bowl dreams that stretch into 2014, to a team with Super Bowl dreams that start and end in Dallas.

The only difference that this trade makes to Moss owners is that they don't have to find a replacement for him in the bye week. The only problem is, I don't see him being highly productive against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

Do you think that just because he's not wearing a Patriots uniform, that he's suddenly a different receiver than the guy who had 9 fantasy points in week two against the very same team? Do you think it matters that Darrelle Revis could sit out this game, considering the fact that Antonio Cromartie blanked Moss in the second half of that game when Revis went out?

In case you couldn't tell, I don't. And for that matter, I wouldn't start Moss this week even though he's not on a bye. Favre will want to test out his new toy, but will it matter?

Prediction: four receptions, 54 yards

If You Were Even Thinking of Grabbing a New England Patriots Receiver...

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FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 26:  Drayton Florence #29 of the Buffalo Bills strips the ball from Brandon Tate #19 of the New England Patriots during on September 26, 2010 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 26: Drayton Florence #29 of the Buffalo Bills strips the ball from Brandon Tate #19 of the New England Patriots during on September 26, 2010 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Don't.

Remember that "spread the wealth" attack that the Patriots employed when they won three Super Bowls in the earlier part of the decade? They're likely going back to a similar strategy. With many good threats and only one truly great threat (Wes Welker), there likely won't be a clear-cut No. 1 and No. 2 as there have been for the past three years in New England.

Those of you who thought Brandon Tate could be a nice addition can put those thoughts to rest now. He won't be the second coming of Moss, I don't care how much blazing speed he's shown in the return game. You just can't duplicate the kind of production Moss gives you with one guy.

I could be wrong by season's end, but right now, there's plenty of time to wait and see before making a rash move.

Waiver Wire Wonder: Steve Johnson

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ORCHARD PARK, NY - OCTOBER 03: Jim Leonard #36  of the New York Jets strips the ball from Steve Johnson #13 of  the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on October 3, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. The Jets won 38-14. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images
ORCHARD PARK, NY - OCTOBER 03: Jim Leonard #36 of the New York Jets strips the ball from Steve Johnson #13 of the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on October 3, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. The Jets won 38-14. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images

You must be wondering if this is some kind of joke. Stop wondering, it's not.

Johnson has touchdown receptions in each of the past two games (@ Patriots, vs. Jets) and has reeled in 12 catches for 168 yards through four games.

While he won't be a fantastic option down the stretch, owners of Wes Welker could possibly plug in Johnson for his week five game against the Gags...I mean Jags, at home. In case you were wondering, Jacksonville's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in nearly every passing statistic.

Although it may not be saying much for Steve Johnson to have worked his way up the depth chart for the Bills, it could mean a surprising "stop gap" option.

Prediction: four receptions, 68 yards, one touchdown

The Chase For 2,500 Is Over: Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys

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NASHVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 03:  Chris Johnson #28 of the Tennessee Titans stretches for extra yards against the Denver Broncos at LP Field on October 3, 2010 in Nashville, Tennessee. Denver won 26-20.  (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 03: Chris Johnson #28 of the Tennessee Titans stretches for extra yards against the Denver Broncos at LP Field on October 3, 2010 in Nashville, Tennessee. Denver won 26-20. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Everyone's favorite No. 1 fantasy draft choice has had his dreams derailed by two less-than-amazing performances which came against two stout run defenses, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos.

Chris Johnson could mysteriously disappear for about three hours as he's sucked into the space ship in Dallas, only to magically reappear before his fantasy owners will be any wiser.

It's often a struggle, deciding to bench the guy you spent the No. 1 pick on, but such a decision may be prudent this week. Proceed with extreme caution, Johnson owners.

Prediction: 20 carries, 73 yards, touchdown, fumble

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