NFL Picks Week 4: The Top Underdogs Who Can Win Outright
Everyone loves an underdog, and there are plenty to root for in Week 4 of the NFL season.
The betting lines this week have some pretty interesting lines if you're betting and even if you're just a fan of the game, they might be head scratchers. I think there are some chances for an underdog to not only cover but win the game outright.
Inside you'll see each game broken down by the chance the underdog to win and why. If you agree or disagree, leave it in the comments along with who you think has the best chance to win this week.
No. 14: Carolina at New Orleans
1 of 14
Line
New Orleans -13.5
Upset Probability
1-10 (Not happening)
Why New Orleans Will Win
The Saints are coming off a tough divisional loss to Atlanta and New Orleans has looked sloppy and uninspired in its first three games.
I think the loss in overtime was enough to snap the Saints out of their funk. It doesn't help that Carolina has no quarterback and simply cannot run the ball, even with two running backs. The Panthers are a mess and the Saints are going to roll them.
Prediction
New Orleans 41, Carolina 10
No. 13: Detroit at Green Bay
2 of 14
Line
Green Bay -14.5
Upset Probablity
1-10 (Not happening)
Why Green Bay Will Win
The Packers killed themselves last week and had Green Bay eliminated some of the mistakes on Monday night, it probably would have won the game against Chicago and remained undefeated.
Green Bay can't run the ball, but it won't matter as Aaron Rodgers will rip Detroit's secondary apart. The Lions will be without Matthew Stafford again and no offense to Shawn Hill, but he's just not good enough to get it done.
Prediction
Green Bay 38, Detroit 13
No. 12: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
3 of 14
Line
Indianapolis -7.5
Upset Probability
3-10 (Not likely)
Why Indianapolis Will Win
The Colts are just rolling on offense right now after torching the Giants and Broncos in back-to-back weeks, not to mention the aerial assault Indianapolis put on Houston in Week 1. Peyton Manning has thrown nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Jacksonville just can't stop teams who pass on them and the Colts will do it with great success all day.
Prediction
Indianapolis 31, Jacksonville 17
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No. 11: Arizona at San Diego
4 of 14
Line
San Diego -8
Upset Probability
4-10 (Not Likely)
Why San Diego Will Win
The Chargers let another game slip through their fingers and I think San Diego knows it has to win to stay in the hunt in the AFC West. Not that the division is that good but 1-3 is when teams start to really panic at this point in the season and the Chargers just can't have that, especially with losses to Kansas City, Seattle and possibly Arizona. Those are all winnable games and three losses would just be devestating.
Prediction
San Diego 30, Arizona 10
No. 10: San Francisco at Atlanta
5 of 14
Line
Atlanta -7
Upset Probability
4-10 (Not Likely)
Why Atlanta Will Win
After Week 1, we all thought the Falcons looked terrible for not beating Pittsburgh who was playing its first game without Ben Roethlisberger. Now, after three weeks, it looks like the Falcons are better than we thought for hanging as tough with the Steelers as they did. Atlanta is on a roll and the 49ers are just in total disarray. It's a mess and the Falcons will take advantage.
Prediction
Atlanta 28, San Francisco 16
No. 9: NY Jets at Buffalo
6 of 14
Line
New York -5.5
Upset Probability
5-10 (Low)
Why New York Will Win
The Jets have won back-to-back division games against New England and Miami and now get to face Buffalo for the trifecta. New York's defense will suffocate Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills' offense and Mark Sanchez will make enough plays in the passing game to put together a solid lead against Buffalo. The Bills are a bad team while the Jets are playoff contenders. It's a no brainer.
Prediction
New York 24, Buffalo 7
No. 8: Houston at Oakland
7 of 14
Line
Houston -3
Upset Probablity
5-10 (Low)
Why Houston Will Win
This is a big game for the Texans. Houston is coming off of its first loss and I think the Texans need a win to solidify their position as an AFC contender. In the past, these are the types of games the Texans would lose and would cost them in the long run. A win here, and a convincing one will quiet some of the whispers about Houston.
Prediction
Houston 35, Oakland 24
No. 7: Cincinnati at Cleveland
8 of 14
Line
Cincinnati -3
Upset Probablity
6-10 (Could Happen)
Why Cincinnati Should Win
The Bengals just have too much talent at skill positions for the Browns to keep up with. Even with Carson Palmer's struggles, Cincinnati should be able to just pull away with ease after a couple of big passing plays. I think this is the week Chad Ochocinco gets back on track and the Bengals get a needed division win to keep pace with Baltimore and stay in hot pursuit of Pittsburgh.
Prediction
Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 13
No. 6: Denver at Tennessee
9 of 14
Line
Tennessee -6
Upset Probability
7-10 (Could Happen)
Why Tennessee Should Win
Denver's defense hasn't looked great against the pass but with Chris Johnson drawing the defense's attention, it should open up things for Vince Young in the passing game, if the coaches decide to trust him this week. Johnson will find room to run and it should do good things for the Titans' balance on offense. Also, Tennessee's defensive line is tough and will get to Kyle Orton in this game.
Prediction
Tennessee 28, Denver 24
No. 5: Washington at Philadelphia
10 of 14
Line
Philadelphia -6
Upset Probability
7-10 (Could Happen)
Why Philadelphia Should Win
The Eagles have an explosive offense and the Redskins just have not looked good this season and it culminated in a loss to St. Louis last week. Washington just looks like a team that hasn't adopted well to Mike Shanahan's system just yet. Michael Vick has shown to be a great fit for the Eagles and he's opened up that offense for the Eagles.
Prediction
Philadelphia 34, Washington 30
No. 4: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
11 of 14
Line
Pittsburgh -1
Upset Probability
8-10 (Good Chance of Happening)
Why Baltimore Should Pull the Upset
This is going to be a battle of defenses and I think Baltimore has enough offensive weapons to make this a matchup in the Ravens' favor. Pittsburgh's defense has been the most dominant in football this year but I think that Baltimore will eliminated the Steelers' running game and take advantage when they go back to pass, making it a game of field position the Ravens could win. However it's hard to pick against the Steelers' defense
Prediction
Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 14
No. 3: New England at Miami
12 of 14
Line
New England -1
Upset Probability
9-10 (Probably Gonna Happen)
Why Miami Should Pull the Upset
The Dolphins looked great against the Jets, even if it was without Darrelle Revis and probably should have won that game.
Miami has kind of flown under the radar and I think that with how shaky the Patriots have looked, the Dolphins are in prime position to take this game at home.
Prediction
Miami 24, New England 17
No. 2: Seattle at St. Louis
13 of 14
Line
Seattle -1
Upset Probability
10-10 (It's Gonna Happen)
Why St. Louis Should Pull The Upset
While Seattle has pulled two impressive upsets off at home, the Seahawks were blasted in their only road contest, and I like the Rams chance of pulling the upset at home.
St. Louis is a scrappy team with a lot of heart, and I think that Sam Bradford can lead the Rams to victory on Sunday.
Prediction
St. Louis 24, Seattle 17
No. 1: Chicago at NY Giants
14 of 14
Line
New York -4
Upset Probability
10-10 (It's Gonna Happen)
Why Chicago Should Pull the Upset
I'm not sure why the Bears, who are undefeated, are underdogs other than a short week after a divisional game, but the Giants are in a much worse position than Chicago right now.
New York just imploded mentally a week after getting beat down on national TV. Tom Coughlin is losing his team right now, and I'm not sure it's going to get any better. Coughlin's been on the hot seat before and he's working his way on it again.
I love the Bears in this matchup.
Prediction
Chicago 30, New York 20
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