NFL Picks Week 4: 10 Shockers You'll Never See Coming
Week 4 of the NFL season is loaded with trap games for teams with hopes of reaching the postseason. There are several teams primed for an upset, but which ones are they?
Using Las Vegas' lines to determine who the favorites are in each game, we're here to tell you. We're ranking this week's games by the likelihood of an upset. The more likely it is that the favorite will get knocked off, the more Gussies we'll award. Gussies are named after excitable CBS announcer Gus Johnson, and the likelihood that if he were calling the game he'd be having a heart attack.
So, without further ado, let's get to the picks.
14. Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
1 of 14
Why Green Bay Could Win: The Packers are still the class of the NFC North, last week's loss aside. Detroit doesn't have a prayer of stopping their offense, and their defense will eat Shaun Hill for brunch.
Why Detroit Could Win: Maybe Aaron Rodgers gets lost on his way to the stadium. In all honesty, without Matt Stafford, Detroit's in trouble in this one.
Gussies: Two. One-sided affair here.
Final Score: Green Bay 35, Detroit 17.
13. New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
2 of 14
Why Buffalo Could Pull an Upset: The Bills' offense clicked for the first time all season last week against New England, scoring 30 points in the loss. Their defense isn't terrible, and they're playing at home. The Jets' pass defense is missing lockdown corner Darelle Revis, and it remains to be seen whether Antonio Cromartie can do the job in his stead.
Why New York Will Win in the End: The Jets have been fantastic in Buffalo, winning their last three contests at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Their offense is finally clicking behind Mark Sanchez, and their run defense is as good as ever. The Bills will find a much more formidable opponent in New York than they did in Foxboro.
Gussies: Two Gussies. The Bills could pull the upset, but it's highly unlikely.
Final Score: New York 21, Buffalo 14
12. Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
3 of 14
Why Oakland Could Win: The Raiders looked much better last week with Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, and their pass defense is still one of the league's better units. The run game is excellent behind Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Network Associates Coliseum is an incredibly tough place to play, and the Texans haven't exactly impressed away from home.
Why Houston Could Win: The Texans have the best, most consistent running game they've ever had, to go along with their excellent passing game. The Raiders' run defense is lackluster at best, flat out awful at worst. Houston's defense has talent, they just haven't jelled yet. If they do, they could give Oakland fits.
Gussies: Four. This one should be exciting, if for no other reason than watching the Texans offense work is always fun.
Final Score: Houston 28, Oakland 21.
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11. Arizona Cardinals @ San Diego Chargers
4 of 14
Why San Diego Could Win: The Chargers are listed as the favorites in this one, and with good reason. Their offense is excellent, the Cardinals defense is terrible, and San Diego is great at home. Arizona is vulnerable over the top, and Rivers has the arm to punish them. The Cardinals can't stop Antonio Gates either.
Why Arizona Could Win: The Cards offensive weapons gives them a puncher's chance every game. Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston are excellent receivers, while Beanie Wells gives Arizona a good run game.
Gussies: Four. Shouldn't be close, but lots of scoring.
Final Score: San Diego 35, Arizona 21.
10. Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
5 of 14
Why Carolina Could Win: The Panthers can do one thing well offensively: run the football. Guess what the Saints defense is weak against?
Why New Orleans Could Win: The Panthers can't throw the football with any regularity, leaving the Saints defense free to focus on containing DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Superdome is an incredibly difficult place to play, and Carolina's defense hasn't been stellar, which they'll have to be to pull the stunner.
Gussies: 4.5. Carolina's run game keeps this one closer than it should be, given the talent levels on either side.
Final Score: New Orleans 24, Carolina 21.
9. Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
6 of 14
Why Jacksonville Could Win: Indy's defense stinks against the run, and Maurice Jones-Drew loves running against the Colts.
Why Indianapolis Could Win: Other than that one weakness, the Colts outclass the Jags in every single important area. If you don't think Peyton Manning is going to try to throw for 500 yards against this secondary, you haven't been paying attention.
Gussies: 4.5. Jones-Drew is the wild card in this one.
Final Score: Indianapolis 21, Jacksonville 17.
8. Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
7 of 14
Why Cleveland Could Win: The Browns' offense showed signs of life last week against Baltimore, and the Bengals defense isn't impenetrable. Cleveland's defense has been relatively solid as well, keeping the Browns in every game this season. On top of that, crazy things tend to happen when these two teams square off.
Why Cincinnati Could Win: The Bengals are clearly the better team. Better quarterback, better run game, better defense. They're riding an eight-game AFC North winning streak, and don't look to be slowing down any time soon.
Gussies: 5. Cleveland has to win sooner or later, right? This could be the week it happens.
Final Score: Cleveland 21, Cincinnati 20.
7. San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
8 of 14
Why Atlanta Could Win: The Falcons are the heavy favorites in this one, thanks to an offense that's firing on all cylinders and a defense that has improved noticeably from last season. Matt Ryan looks the part of an NFL star in his third season at the helm, and the Falcons should contend for the NFC South title. Plus, the Georgia Dome is an incredibly tough place to play.
Why San Francisco Could Win: While the Niners have looked awful through three weeks, they think they've found and removed the problem. If they have, this offense has the weapons to be fantastic, and the defense is more talented than it's shown, as well.
Gussies: 5.5. San Fran will keep it closer than people think, and could easily pull the upset.
Final Score: San Francisco 21, Atlanta 20.
6. New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
9 of 14
Why New England Could Win: The Patriots are listed as pick'em favorites, or one-point favorites, so this one will be close. Tom Brady can throw the ball with the best of them, and the Dolphins' secondary was exposed in Week 3. Their run defense should stuff a cork in Miami's offense, forcing them to beat them through the air.
Why Miami Could Win: The Dolphins' offense showed signs of life against a good Jets' defense in Week 3, and if Brandon Marshall and Chad Henne have a connection, New England doesn't have the secondary to contain them. Plus, the Dolphins aren't phased by elite run defenses, using their two-headed backfield to get the yards they need.
Gussies: Six. Should be close all game long.
Final Score: Miami 27, New England 24.
5. Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
10 of 14
Why St. Louis Could Win: The Rams are riding high off their first win last week, and they're getting better each game. The passing game doesn't completely stink, and Steven Jackson is one of the NFL's most talented runners. The defense has a couple of budding stars too, and has looked decent through three weeks. Plus, Seattle has yet to win on the road.
Why Seattle Could Win: The Seahawks looked good once more in beating the Chargers last week. Their offense is improving, and their defense looks pretty good. Leon Washington and Justin Forsett give Seattle their best running game since the Shaun Alexander era.
Gussies: Seven. This one smells like an upset to me.
Final Score: St. Louis 24, Seattle 17
4. Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans
11 of 14
Why Tennessee Could Win: Denver's defense stinks, and the Titans can run on anybody. Tennessee's defense has been looking better by the week, and they're playing at home.
Why Denver Could Win: The Broncos have a more high-octane offense than you think. Kyle Orton's been flinging the ball all over the field this year, and their pass defense is capable of locking down one receiver, which is more than enough against Tennessee.
Gussies: Seven. The Titans are the favorites, which means there's an upset brewing in Nashville.
Final Score: Denver 24, Tennessee 21.
3. Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
12 of 14
Why Washington Could Win: The Redskins' passing game has looked much better with Donovan McNabb at quarterback in 2010, and they'll be eager to show the Eagles what they're missing. The Eagles' defense isn't exactly a force to be reckoned with, and they'll struggle to contain Washington's offense.
Why Philadelphia Could Win: The Eagles have the most exciting player in the NFL in quarterback Michael Vick. Teams are never quite sure how to contain the dynamic playmaker, and Washington's defense hasn't exactly inspired all that much confidence thus far. Plus, the game's in Philly, so you can expect McNabb to get a nice, warm welcome from the Eagles' fans.
Gussies: Eight. This one will be a good one, and with Philly as the favorite, an upset is highly possible.
Final Score: Washington 24, Philadelphia 20.
2. Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
13 of 14
Why Baltimore Could Win: The Ravens' defense looks as good as ever, and the offense is rounding into form. Sure, Pittsburgh's defense is formidable, but Flacco's got the arm and Rice has the legs to give Baltimore an unprecedented balance on the offensive side the football. Plus, Charlie Batch is the quarterback in Pittsburgh. Do I need to say more?
Why Pittsburgh Could Win: The Steelers have been underdogs every week, and people are starting to come around on them. Their defense is more than good enough to win games for them, and Rashard Mendenhall is an excellent running back. Batch blew up Tampa's defense last week, and could do the same to Baltimore, if they give him the chance.
Gussies: 8.5. A classic clash, but Baltimore could easily pull the upset over the undefeated Steelers.
Final Score: Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 21.
1. Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
14 of 14
Why New York Could Win: Listed as four-point favorites, the Giants are a completely different team at home. They're tougher, and more efficient. Last week was on the road, they'll rebound and play well against Chicago this week.
Why Chicago Could Win: The Bears are used to having the odds against them, like last week. Their offense is running at a high level, the defense has looked revived, and while they may be a little overrated right now, they're still a darned good football team.
Gussies: 10. With the Giants as the favorite, an upset is all but assured in one of the most puzzling lines of the week
Final Score: Chicago 28, New York 14.
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