NFL Predictions For Week Four: Picks Against the Spread For Every Game
There seems to be a common theme with my picks this season, as I finished another week at exactly .500. After the Monday night win and cover by the Chicago Bears I ended Week 3 with a record of 8-8. My record for the year stands at 23-23-1 against the spread (ATS).
My shocker of the week has yet to cash in as it stands at 0-3 straight up and against the spread, but on a positive note I am 4-0 ATS on Monday night football. Week 4 is the first week that teams will have a bye week. The teams that get the week off are Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay.
Let’s see if I can break my streak of mediocrity and finish above .500 for the first time this year.
Here are the picks for every game in week 4.
(Bye: Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa Bay)
San Francisco at Atlanta
1 of 14
San Francisco at Atlanta, 1:00 PM, FOX, Georgia Dome
The NFL Odds makers at JustBet posted the line for this game and they have the Falcons as 6.5 point favorites over the 49ers.
What is wrong with the San Francisco 49ers? The super bowl sweetheart pick is off to a horrendous start and are currently 0-3. After looking miserable against the Seahawks, the 49ers seemed to play up to their potential in a close loss to the New Orleans Saints.
That may have been a mirage as they went to Kansas City and fell flat yet again. They were dominated in every facet of the game and now the 49ers and the fans are wondering if the season is already over. Things don’t look to get better anytime soon as they travel to the East Coast to take on the surging Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons are coming off of a huge divisional victory against the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons needed a little luck as the Saints field goal kicker Garrett Hartley missed a chip shot in overtime that would have won it for the Saints. The Falcons are now in the driver’s seat in the NFC South as they head into Week 4. With the short week and the big win, this is a perfect letdown spot for the Dirty Birds.
They may be 0-3 straight up, but against the spread the 49ers are on a decent run. They are are 13-7-4 against the spread (ATS) during their last 24 games, and 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
The 49ers are 9-3-2 ATS against a team with a winning record and 14-3-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss of more than 14 points. They may be traveling to the East Coast, but the 49ers are desperate for a win and get it in Atlanta.
49ers +6.5
Cincinnati at Cleveland
2 of 14
Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 PM, CBS, Cleveland Browns Stadium
The NFL Odds makers at Diamond Sports International posted the line for this game and they have the Bengals as three-point favorites over the Browns.
The Bengals are 2-1 on the season and are winning ugly. Quarterback Carson Palmer has struggled and the heavily hyped offense has yet to put up big numbers. Last week, the Bengals won against a pathetic Carolina Panthers team starting a rookie quarterback, but were not able to pull away until late in the game.
Now they travel to the dog pound in Cleveland to try and win a divisional game.
The Browns have still yet to win a game on the season, but it’s not for a lack of trying. The Browns have been competitive in every game they have played, but can’t put a complete game together. On offense the Browns looked pretty good as running Peyton Hillis ran for a career-high 144 yards against a tough Baltimore defense. The running game set up the passing game and Seneca Wallace took advantage and completed on 18 of 24 passes.
Ultimately it was the defense that let the Browns down in this game, but if they can get an improved effort this could be a close game.
Cleveland is in one of my favorite betting angles this week as they are a divisional underdog.
It also helps that the Bengals play down to their level of competition as evident by the fact they are 1-6 ATS against a team with a losing record. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win and a bankroll busting 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite.
The Browns may not have an impressive record straight up but they flourish against the spread. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a winning road record, 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Browns play tough at home and are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
Take the Browns and the points and don’t be surprised if they win outright.
Browns +3
NY Jets at Buffalo Bills
3 of 14
NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 PM, CBS, Ralph Wilson Stadium
The NFL Odds makers at Brobury Sports posted the line for this game and they have the Jets as 4.5 point favorites over the Bills.
The Jets overcame the off-the-field controversy and defeated the Miami Dolphins on the road in a pivotal AFC East battle. Wide receiver Braylon Edwards was arrested earlier in the week and at the center of media frenzy all week long, but that did not seem to bother him on the field. He was on the receiving end of a 67-yard touchdown catch that helped the Jets beat the Dolphins and move them in a tie in the division.
If the Jets beat Buffalo this week they would own a victory over every team in the AFC East.
The Buffalo Bills put up a valiant effort but came up just short in their game against the Patriots. Ryan Fitzpatrick was named starting quarterback and he did not disappoint. Fitzpatrick finished the day 20-28, with 247 yards and two touchdowns, but a late interception sealed the victory for the Patriots.
Fitzpatrick’s play on the field was so impressive that the Bills placed backup quarterback Trent Edwards on waivers the following day. Fitzpatrick will get a true test this week, going up against the tough defense of the New York Jets that may have the services of cornerback Darrelle Revis.
Another home divisional dog, the problem is it’s another bad team. The Bills offense and C.J. Spiller look much better with Fitzpatrick calling the shots. The Jets offense performed well against Miami, but I don’t look for a cover here as they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and will play much better defense at home. I am not ready to give them the straight up win, but I am taking the points and the Bills.
Buffalo +4.5
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Seattle at St. Louis
4 of 14
Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 PM, FOX, Edward Jones Dome
The NFL Odds makers at Bet Jamaica posted the line for this game and they have the Seahawks as one-point favorites over the Rams.
The Seattle Seahawks upset the San Diego Chargers to move to 2-0 at home, but now they will have to see if they can win on the road. The Seahawks were fueled by two kick returns by Leon Washington as he put up more points than the Seahawks offense in the victory. The last time the Birds hit the road they were dominated by the Denver Broncos.
The Rams got their first win of the season as they beat the Redskins as 3.5-point home dogs. The Rams jumped out to a 14-point lead but looked as though they were going to lose after allowing the Redskins to come back to a 16-14 lead. It was the Rams defense that stood up in the second half and kept the Redskins out of the end zone securing the victory.
I can’t understand how Seattle can be justified as a road favorite, since they have floundered on the road, failing to cover in 10 of their last 12 and nine of the last 10.The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
The offense has been erratic at best and the Rams defense is coming together. Sam Bradford and the Rams win two in a row.
St. Louis +1
Denver at Tennessee
5 of 14
Denver at Tennessee, 1:00 PM, CBS, LP Field
The NFL Odds makers at Bet Jamaica posted the line for this game and they have the Titans as 6.5-point favorites over the Broncos.
The Titans rebounded from the worst loss of the season and went to New York and dominated the Giants. The Titans won outright as five-point underdogs and controlled the game from the start. Chris Johnson rushed for over 100 yards and a week after committing seven turnovers the Titans did not have one against the G-Men.
Bronco’s quarterback Kyle Orton is off to a great start, but unfortunately it is not translating into victories. The Broncos played admirably against the Colts, but turned the ball over twice on downs in the red zone. The Broncos offense will be challenged again this week facing one of the best defenses in the NFL.
They have been flying under the radar but the Titans are slowly becoming a big threat in the NFL and they fall into abetting angle I like this week. Bet a home team coming off a win as an underdog on the road. I like it better when the team is a home dog, but I will back the Titans here.
The Broncos are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following after failing to cover the spread. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Titans are 10-4 ATS against a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. Chris Johnson should have a big day against this defense and the Titans win big.
Titans -6.5
Detroit at Green Bay
6 of 14
Detroit at Green Bay, 1:00 PM, FOX, Lambeau Field
The NFL Odds makers at JustBet posted the line for this game and they have the Packers as a 14.5-point favorites over the Lions.
The Detroit Lions are still winless on the season, but not for lack of trying. They played tough early against the Vikings and even held the lead at one point. They faltered late under the pressure of trying to contain running back Adrian Peterson and failed to cover as 11.5 point dogs.
The Packers played badly enough to lose the game on Monday night against the Bears. The Packers controlled the time of possession, moved the ball well on offense, but still lost the game. Penalties were the big problem as the Packers were flagged 18 times, the most in one game in 50 years by the Packers. A visit by the Lions should make things better.
This is more chalk than I usually like to give and I now the Packers will be a popular pick, but for good reason. The Packers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against the NFC North and 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings and the home team is 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings.
The short week doesn’t bother me because the Packers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game and they will lay it on the Lions this week.
Green Bay -14.5
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
7 of 14
Baltimore at Pittsburgh 1:00 PM CBS Heinz Field
The NFL Odds makers at Brobury Sports posted the line for this game and they have the Steelers as one point favorites over the Ravens.
The Ravens may have been looking past the Browns to this divisional match up with the undefeated Steelers. They had to hold off the Brows for the victory and did not come close to covering the double digit spread. Anquan Boldin emerged as a favorite target for Joe Flacco, grabbing three touchdowns to lead the Birds to the win.
The Steelers are doing just fine without Ben Roethlisberger. They are undefeated and the offense put up big numbers with the superstar quarterback on the sideline. Quarterback Charlie Batch managed the offense and wide receiver Mike Wallace pulled in two touchdowns in the romp of the previously undefeated Buccaneers. It would be a huge success if the Steelers were to beat the Ravens and start the season 4-0 without Big Ben.
The Steelers are winning games with defense, but they are facing a team with a defense that can match their level of play. The Ravens relish the underdog role and are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Steelers are the opposite and are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Steelers struggle in division of late at 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against the AFC North, and will come up short in a defensive battle. I am taking the Ravens to get the win.
Ravens +1
Carolina at New Orleans
8 of 14
Carolina at New Orleans 1:00 PM FOX Superdome
The NFL Odds makers at JustBet posted the line for this game and they have the Saints as a 13.5-point favorite over the Panthers.
Rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen started his first game with the Panthers that resulted in a loss to the Bengals. Hopefully, expectations are not set too high as the team faces off against the New Orleans Saints this week.
The Saints should be grumpy after an overtime loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints seemingly had the game in hand in overtime, but field goal kicker Garrett Hartley shanked a gimme and the Saints lost outright as three point home favorites.
The Saints are the much better team and I got in trouble by backing a rookie quarterback last time, but I like the way the Panthers opened it up in the second half of last game. I know the Saints are 2-1 but they have not lived up to the reputation of a year ago.
Not to mention the Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 NFC games and are 1-8 ATS in the last nine NFC South Division matchups. The Cats are 7-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, 5-1 ATS in their last six against the NFC South, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. I am going to take the points in this game.
Panthers +13.5
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
9 of 14
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM, CBS, EverBank Field
The NFL Odds makers at Brobury Sports posted the line for this game and they have the Colts as nine-point favorites over the Jaguars.
The Colts are rolling right along after the season-opening loss to the Texans. The Colts defeated the Broncos on the arm of quarterback Peyton Manning and now look to secure a divisional win over the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars look like they are in for a long year. They were dominated by Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles. David Garrard may see some time on the bench soon as he was a miserable 13 of 30 for 105 yards and an interception. The Jaguars have lost seven of the last nine regular season games and I don’t see them getting better anytime soon.
I am going to make this really clear. Although they have one win already this year, I truly believe the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL and Garrard is on his last days as a starter. The road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
I may not take the Jags again this year and won’t take them against the Colts.
Colts -9
Shocker Of The Week: Houston at Oakland
10 of 14
Houston at Oakland, 4:05 PM, CBS, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
The NFL Odds makers at JustBet posted the line for this game and they have the Texans as a three-point favorite over the Raiders
The Houston Texans finally lost their first game of the season against in state rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. The Texans had no answer against the Cowboy defense that allowed just 340 yards of offense and forced three turnovers. The trip to the West Coast is a chance for the Texans to get back in the win column.
In an attempt to get a spark on offense, the Oakland Raiders benched quarterback Jason Campbell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski. The move seemed to work out as the Raiders posted 364 yards of offense and were in position to win the game. Oakland kicker, Sebastian Janikowski lined up to kick the game winner from 32 yards out, and surprised everyone by missing it.
The Raiders will need him to regain his reliable form, if they hope to play with the Texans.
I am ready for the Raiders to win a game and this is a perfect set up. The Texans are bummed out and travel to play in the Black Hole. The Texan defense is suspect and the Raiders are getting better on offense.
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss and get the outright win against the Texans.
Oakland +3
Washington at Philadelphia
11 of 14
Washington at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM, FOX, Lincoln Financial Field
The NFL Odds makers at Diamond Sports International posted the line for this game and they have the Eagles as six-point favorites over the Redskins.
This has to be the biggest game of the week and the one that will get the most hype. Washington quarterback Donovan Mcnabb will make his return to Philadelphia. The Redskins may have been looking ahead to this game when they dropped a road game to the Rams as 3.5-point favorites.
The Eagles meanwhile have been soaring since Michael Vick took over at quarterback. He has led the Eagles to a 2-0 record and has put up plenty of points in his two starts. He is still a threat to run and is deadly accurate with this long pass.
I really like the Redskins in this game coming off a sorry loss to the Rams. McNabb will be ready for this homecoming and this game is important to the veteran quarterback.
The Eagles are 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS at home against Washington the last five games and will struggle again. The Redskins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC East. The Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings and have a shot to win this, but I will take the points, just in case.
Redskins +6
Arizona at San Diego
12 of 14
Arizona at San Diego, 4:15 PM, FOX, Qualcomm Stadium
The NFL Odds makers at Diamond Sports International posted the line for this game and they have the Chargers as nine-point favorites over the Cardinals.
The Cardinals enter this game after a win over the Raiders. They survived a scare on a missed field goal by Sebastian Janikowski and managed to go to 2-1 on the season. The Cardinals survived a poor outing from quarterback Derek Anderson and won the game with special teams and defense. They will have to play better if they hope to beat an angry San Diego Chargers team.
The Chargers did everything they could to beat the Seattle Seahawks, but still walked away with a loss. Philip Rivers ended the game with a career-best and franchise record 455 yards passing but it wasn’t enough to get the win. The Chargers are off to their usual slow start and are winless on the road this year.
These teams are hard to read. The Chargers are good at home, but have looked miserable in spurts. The problem is the Cardinals have looked worse. The Chargers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.
I am nervous dropping points, but its better than the alternative.
San Diego -9
Chicago at NY Giants
13 of 14
Chicago at NY Giants, 8:20 PM, NBC, New Meadowlands Stadium
The NFL Odds makers at Brobury Sports posted the line for this game and they have the Giants as one-point favorites over the Bears.
The Giants piled up the yards and did not punt once but still managed to lose to the Titans. The main reason for the loss was self-inflicted mistakes in the form of turnovers and penalties. They will try to fix those mistakes this week as they host the Chicago Bears.
The Bears are undefeated and winning with a new offense and timely defense. The big win over the Packers Monday Night put them in first in the NFC North, but they have to avoid letdown this week on the road.
The line says it all here. The Bears are undefeated and just beat one of the best teams in football, and now they are four-point underdogs? The Bears are 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a win and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
The Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home and they win big against the Bears.
Giants -4
New England at Miami
14 of 14
MON, OCT 4
New England at Miami 8:30 PM Sun Life Stadium
The NFL Odds makers at Diamond Sports International posted the line for this game and they have the Patriots as one-point favorites over the Dolphins.
The Patriots are exactly the team that everyone thought they would be. They are great offensively but suspect on defense.
A quick look at the stat sheet will verify this suspicion. The Pats rank first in points scored with an average of 30 points per game, and third down offense converting at a 58 percent clip. However the defense is struggling and are ranked 28th in the league in points allowed, letting up an average of 27 points per game.
Miami had a chance to remain undefeated and take over the top spot in the AFC East, but lost a tough game to the Jets. This makes this game crucial to both squads in the race for the division title.
The Patriots have not played well on the road in some time. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the AFC East 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a winning home record. The road record is 1-3-2 ATS in their last six road games and they run into an angry Dolphin team.
The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC East and 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Dolphins rebound and get the win over a weak Patriots defense.
Dolphins +1
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Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel Free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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