NFL Picks Week 4: Breaking Down the Lines for Each Game
With Week 4 coming up faster than we think, it's time to go game-by-game and break down the betting lines and get a feel for each game.
There's a couple big numbers out there for teams to cover, not to mention a couple of games that could go one way or another.
Inside you'll find a detailed breakdown of each game and if you agree or disagree leave it in the comments and we can talk it out.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
1 of 14
Line
Tennessee -6.5
Is The Line Right?
No. I think Tennessee is going to have to win this one close with its defense showing weaknesses last week against the Giants. Denver will be able to move the ball through the air against the Titans' weaker corners and get itself into scoring position. The Titans will need to be ready to be tested early and often against the Broncos.
Who Moves the Line for Denver
Kyle Orton. The Titans defensive line will be able to stop the run, and it will be up to Orton to try and make the plays that Denver needs to win on Sunday. Orton doesn't have the same weapons that he did last year but he will need to be able to get down the field with the ball to get a W against the Titans.
Who Moves the Line for Tennessee
Chris Johnson. It's always Chris Johnson for the Titans. The offense begins and ends with him, and since the coaches clearly don't trust Vince Young to win a game for them, they're going to run Johnson into the dirt to try and get it done on Sundays. I'm not sure how much longer they can do that but I see it happening.
Will Tennessee Cover?
No. I think this could be a nail-biter of a game that isn't decided until the last possession.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
2 of 14
Line
Pittsburgh -1.5
Is the Line Right?
Yes. This game is going to be an absolute war in the trenches this Sunday and it's going to be who ever throws the last punch who wins this game. I wouldn't expect much offensive firepower in this one as two great defenses go toe-to-toe to battle for supremacy.
Who Moves the Line for Pittsburgh?
Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers have gotten back to the ground and pound that carried them through the last 20 years or so of successful football. Mendenhall's had a great year and really carried the load for Pittsburgh in Ben Roethlisberger's absence.
Who Moves the Line for Baltimore?
Anquan Boldin. Joe Flacco will have to make plays down the field in the passing game with Ray Rice nursing a knee injury. Flacco and Boldin finally got on the same page this past week as Boldin made three touchdown grabs. This is why the Ravens got Boldin and it's why he has to show up to play this Sunday.
Will Pittsburgh Cover?
Yes. I think the Steelers defense is just too good for a mistake-prone Joe Flacco to handle. Pittsburgh will grind out another win and go 4-0 without Ben Roethilsberger.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
3 of 14
Line
Cincinnati -3
Is the Line Right?
I think this line should actually be higher. The Bengals are by far the better team than the Browns and it doesn't matter that Cleveland is at home in this game. Cincinnati should be able to get down the field in the passing game even if Carson Palmer has had a rough year so far. Cedric Benson will find running room and it's going to be a long day for Browns fans.
Who Moves the Line for Cincinnati?
Chad Ochocinco. It's been a quiet couple of weeks for Ocho and I think this may be the week where he breaks out yet again. I don't see Cleveland's defense containing him and running mate Terrell Owens and both will probably have big games. I hope he does. I want to see another great celebration after a touchdown catch.
Who Moves The Line for Cleveland?
Peyton Hillis. Hillis broke out for the Browns last week, running for over a hundred yards and finding the end zone against Baltimore, something that isn't an easy feat. With Cleveland struggling at the quarterback position, the Browns are going to rely on Hillis to get the ball down the field.
Will Cincinnati Cover?
Yes and I think it won't even be close. I think the Bengals win by 10 or more.
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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
4 of 14
Line
Green Bay -14.5
Is the Line Right?
Yes. You don't want to set the line too high at the pro level, this isn't college football and I think a little over two touchdowns is pretty fair for a team with a great passing attack but is struggling to find a running game after the loss of Ryan Grant. Green Bay is going to put up plenty of points this week after struggling against Chicago.
Who Moves the Line for Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers. It has to be Rodgers because Green Bay simply cannot run the ball right now. I know the Packers are trying to take it slow with trying to find a replacement for Ryan Grant but it's clear that those plans need to be accelerated a bit because the current stable of backs is just not getting it done if the Packers want to compete for a championship.
Who Moves the Line for Detroit
Shawn Hill. With Jahvid Best nursing a turf toe injury, the Lions are going to have to try and throw against this Packers defense. That, and the Lions are going to be down in this game and he's going to have to try and throw to get them back into this game.
Will Green Bay Cover?
Yes. I think they'd cover if this spread were three touchdowns. The Pack may struggle early but they'll eventually put the Lions to bed.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
5 of 14
Line
New Orleans -13.5
Is the Line Right?
Yes. It's a divisional game but the Saints are by far the better team here. Last week, the Bengals tried to practically hand the game to the Panthers and they still lost by 13. The Saints are trying to move on from their first loss of the season and I think New Orleans will just move up and down the field on Carolina.
Who Moves the Line for New Orleans
Drew Brees. As if it would be anyone else. Brees had a bad game last week and I don't think we'll see two poor performances from the Super Bowl MVP in a row. Brees is going to spread Carolina out and pick them apart all game long.
Who Moves the Line for Carolina
DeAngelo Williams. Since the Panthers have no quarterback and refuse to give Jonathan Stewart touches, it has to be Williams who makes things happen for Carolina. I'm not sure that will happen though because the Panthers are such a mess right now.
Will New Orleans Cover?
Yes. I think the Saints could win by 28 or more if they play up to their potential this week.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
6 of 14
Line
Atlanta -6.5
Is the Line Right?
Yes. The 49ers have just been an utter mess right now and when you play as undisciplined as San Fran is right now, it's going to be ugly when you step out on the field. I just think that the 49ers are a walking disaster right now and with the way Atlanta's playing, the line is fair.
Who Moves the Line for Atlanta
Roddy White. White is Matt Ryan's favorite target and has turned into quite the threat at the wideout position over the past few years. White should get some separation against the 49ers' defense and Ryan will find him as his play continues to improve.
Who Moves the Line for San Francisco
Frank Gore. With Alex Smith struggling yet again for what seems like the 15th time in his career, San Fran will have to lean on Gore to try and get the job done. The 49ers can keep it close if they grind it out with Gore this weekend.
Will Atlanta Cover?
Yes. I will bet against San Francisco until the 49ers prove to me that they can be trusted to be on. As of now, I haven't seen that.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
7 of 14
Line
Seattle -1
Is the Line Right?
I say yes, but I'm not completely sold on it. While Seattle is 2-1, I'm not sold on the Seahawks yet, but I do like the Rams' team this year and their mentality. I can see why Seattle is favored though.
Who Moves the Line for Seattle
Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck has had a bit of a bounce back year after struggling with injuries the past few years. Seattle really can't run the ball so it's going to be on Hasselbeck to get the ball down the field for the Seahawks.
Who Moves the Line for St. Louis
Sam Bradford. With Steven Jackson nursing a groin injury, it's going to be on Bradford to move the ball for the Rams. Bradford has looked good as a rookie so far and has built up a connection with wideout Mark Clayton. I think Bradford will find success this Sunday.
Will Seattle Cover?
I don't think so. Seattle struggled on the road in its only road matchup and the Rams are a scrappy team and I think they'll pull out the victory.
NY Jets at Buffalo
8 of 14
Line
NY Jets -5
Is the Line Right?
I think this line is pretty fair. Buffalo has played its division foes close and the Bills are hosting the game so five points is pretty fair for this game.
Who Moves the Line for New York
LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson has looked like the LT of old in New York and seems to have found the burst he was lacking in San Diego the past couple of years. Splitting carries with Shonn Greene seems to have helped even if Tomlinson is the primary back in the system. I think he'll find plenty of room to run this week.
Who Moves the Line for Buffalo
I had a hard time coming up with a player but I'm going to go with CJ Spiller. Maybe the rookie's kickoff return for a touchdown will help spark him in the offense and get him going. I think the Bills are going to struggle against the Jets' defense and it will be a long day.
Will New York Cover?
Yes and I think the Jets will cover easily. Buffalo is just a horrendous team and a big doormat for a lot of teams out there. The Bills are destined for the top pick in the draft.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
9 of 14
Line
Indianapolis -7.5
Is the Line Right?
I say yes. For being a road team, it's probably fair to have the line where it is. If the Colts were home, I think we might see the line around nine or 10 but this seems right considering it's a divisional game on the road.
Who Moves the Line for Indianapolis
Peyton Manning. Manning has thrown the ball a ton so far this season and he will continue to do so against a Jacksonville secondary that has struggled mightily this season. With the weapons that Manning has at his disposal, I think he's going to do a great job of finding open men down the field.
Who Moves the Line for Jacksonville
Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars need to follow the blueprint that Houston laid out and just pound the ball on the ground against this Colts defense. Jones-Drew should be able to find running lanes and if Jacksonville can do that, the Jaguars can hang around in this game.
Will Indianapolis Cover?
Yes. Jacksonville has looked brutal this year, and I think Indy is going to exploit the Jags' secondary early and force David Garrard to throw against them where he won't have much success.
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders
10 of 14
Line
Houston -3
Is the Line Right?
No. I think this line should be much higher considering Tennessee blew the doors off of Oakland in Week 1 and I think Houston has much more offensive firepower than the Titans. I know Houston didn't play well last week and the Texans are on the road but they deserve more respect than that.
Who Moves the Line for Houston
Matt Schaub. Vince Young made big plays down the field against the Raiders and I think Schaub is going to make plenty more. If Andre Johnson is healthier I think he'll be good for a couple of touchdowns on big pass plays. Schaub hasn't had the best start to the year but this matchup should help.
Who Moves the Line for Oakland
Darren McFadden. McFadden has had a good start to the year after a couple mediocre years to start his career but McFadden looks like he's starting to develop into a running back that the Raiders can count on. With the quarterback situation the way it is in Oakland, McFadden will have to make plays to keep it close.
Will Houston Cover?
Yes and in fact I think they'd cover if the line were three times this. Houston is going to win this one handily and it should be over by halftime.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
11 of 14
Line
San Diego -8
Is the Line Right?
Yes. Arizona has been pretty bad this season and without a quarterback, I'm not sure they can hang with the Chargers, who really need a win to keep it together because 1-3 is a tough thing to come back from. San Diego will throw all over Arizona and win this game.
Who Moves the Line for San Diego
Philip Rivers. The Chargers simply cannot run the ball and Rivers will have to make plays in the passing game as he's done all year for San Diego. Rivers should make plenty of plays down the field as he continues this great start to his season.
Who Moves the Line for Arizona
Larry Fitzgerald. Athough Fitz doesn't really have a great quarterback to find him down the field, he should be able to get open against San Diego. There aren't many teams that can stop him and the Chargers aren't one. Derek Anderson isn't great, but throwing to Fitz certainly helps matters.
Does San Diego Cover?
Yes. I think the Chargers win this game by at least two touchdowns as Rivers just makes play after play against the Cardinals.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
12 of 14
Line
Philadelphia -6
Is the Line Right?
I think yes, because Washington has looked pretty bad this season and the Eagles have looked so good with Michael Vick under center. I think if this were a road game the line might be around three but six seems fair for this.
Who Moves the Line for Washington
Donovan McNabb. McNabb is returning to Philadelphia and I think he has to play well to show the Eagles and their fans why they were fools to trade him. And trust me, no matter what Vick does or has done, Philadelphia were fools to trade him. I think we're going to see a fired up McNabb on Sunday.
Who Moves the Line for Philadelphia
Michael Vick. The Eagles offense has been as potent as it has because of Vick. He's got a connection with his wideouts that Kevin Kolb didn't and it has opened up the offense for Philadelphia. With how bad the offensive line is, Vick will have to make some plays to keep Philly in it.
Will Philadelphia Cover?
I say no. I think McNabb is going to come out fired up and I think his team is going to want to win for him in his return to Philadelphia. It may not result in a win, but I think the Redskins will keep this close enough to cover.
NY Giants at Chicago Bears
13 of 14
The Line
NY Giants -4
Is the Line Right?
I say no. I don't know what anyone has seen in the Giants to make them believe they should be favored in this matchup. Other than the short week the Bears will be on, the Giants have been a disaster the past two weeks. I don't think the Giants are headed in a positive direction at all.
Who Moves the Line for New York
Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw has taken over the starting running back role from Brandon Jacobs and Bradshaw is an explosive runner who will need to get some big chunks of yardage to help set up Eli Manning and the passing game.
Who Moves the Line for Chicago
Jay Cutler. Cutler struggled against Green Bay and can't really have a performance like that again if the Bears want to win. Cutler got bailed out by some bad penalties on Monday night and the Giants may make those same mistakes but you need better play than that from Cutler.
Will New York Cover?
I say no. I think Chicago is going to win this game as the Giants are just a mess of a team right now who are going nowhere fast.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
14 of 14
The Line
New England -1
Is The Line Right?
I say yes, but I'm not really sold on it. It's going to be a close game and if Miami plays the way they did against the Jets on Sunday, could easily win this game. But I'm not sure Miami will trust Chad Henne for a second week and we'll see how that pays off for them.
Who Moves the Line for New England
Tom Brady. With no real running game, it's going to be up to Brady to move the ball down the field for the Patriots. With Moss and Welker, it's going to cause plenty of problems for the Dolphins, who struggled against the Jets' wideouts last week. I think Brady will find plenty of success on Monday night.
Who Moves the Line for Miami
Ronnie Brown. Brown is really the centerpiece of the Dolphins' offense and with the Wildcat, it makes him the most dangerous player on the field for Miami. Brown is a threat in every sense of the word and he'll take the pressure off of Chad Henne as he matures.
Will New England Cover?
I say yes, but I think this game could go either way. If New England plays the way it has for the last six quarters, I like Miami in this game. However, I'm not sure we'll get two good games from Chad Henne in a row, and I think the Patriots sneak away with this win.
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