NFL Predictions For Week 3: Picks Against the Spread For Every Game
Week 2 in the NFL was a roller coaster ride for my selections. The winners came in early and the losers made ground late.
When the dust settled after the Monday night game, my record was dead even at 8-8. So far on the year I am right at .500 with an overall total record at 15-15-1.
The week was full of bad blowouts, great guesses, and bad beats.
My worst pick (although some may argue) could have been siding with the Dallas Cowboys. The defense was porous and they were over matched against the Bears new offense.
They lost control of the game early and never had a chance on their way to getting blown out. Considering they were giving nine points, this game was over early.
One of my better picks was the selection of the Cincinnati Bengals at home as a divisional dog. They pressured quarterback Joe Flacco and won the game outright.
The bad beat was my shocker of the week play on the Washington Redskins. The Redskins looked as though they had the game in hand before allowing Houston a chance to tie it and bring the game to overtime.
Even in overtime the Redskins hit the game winning field goal, but Houston Head Coach Gary Kubiak was awarded a time out.
Although I personally think this is bush league, it’s hard to argue with the strategy because it worked. The second attempt was missed and the Texans won the game on the next possession.
On to week three in the NFL, here are my picks against the spread (ATS) on all of the games in an attempt to finally get over .500 on the season.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
1 of 16
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants, 1:00 PM, CBS, New Meadowlands Stadium
The Tennessee Titans will try and forget about the atrocious play in the last game against the Steelers when they travel north to face the New York Giants. BetPhoenix has posted the odds for this game and the Giants are three point favorites and the over/under set at 42.5.
The Titans are off one of the worst games offensively they have played in a long time. They were harassed by the Steelers offense all day long.
They could not move the ball on the ground, or in the air and when the day was over, the Titans had seven turnovers.
Chris Johnson was silenced and Vince Young was benched by head coach Jeff Fisher. Young will get the start this week, but will have to play much better if the Titans hope to beat the Giants.
The Giants are off a loss as well, as the team was sliced and diced by Peyton Manning and the Colts. Manning seemed to play with the Giants defense, and the Colts put up big numbers against a supposed revamped defense.
Running back Brandon Jacobs caused some commotion with his helmet tossing and the Giants will have to regroup if they want to beat the Titans.
The Tennessee Titans are 19-10 ATS in the last 29 games as an underdog and against the NFC they are an eye popping 17-5-1 ATS. The Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Jeff Fisher will have his team ready for this game and Vince Young will rebound from the miserable performance a week ago. I am taking the Titans and the points.
Titans +3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 of 16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:00 PM, CBS, Raymond James Stadium
Two undefeated teams square off this Sunday when the surprising Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the Steelers as one point favorites with the over/under set at 33.5.
The Steelers are winning games without the service of Ben Roethlisberger and now they will have to win without Dennis Dixon. Dixon hurt himself in the game against the Titans and Charlie Batch finished the game.
The Steelers signed recently released quarterback Byron Leftwich and the starter for this week has yet to be announced. It may not matter if the defense continues to play at the level they have thus far in the season.
Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman passed for 178 yards and recorded his second career game with at least two touchdowns and no interceptions.
He has matured quite nicely and is one of the main reasons for the 2-0 start by the Buccaneers. The other start may be the schedule as the Buccaneers have faced the Browns and the Panthers.
A win against the Steelers, even without a quality quarterback, would be a statement for this young Buccaneers team.
The Steelers offense is magnificent, but they won’t get seven turnovers every week. The offense is very “safe” no matter who is under center and that is trouble for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are just 9-21-1 ATS as non-division road chalk, while the Bucs are sweet home pups finishing 16-10-1 ATS as home dogs.
The Bucs are also 35-23-3 ATS at Raymond James Stadium vs. non-division opponents and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Freeman is looking very poised and will lead his team to a very stunning 3-0 start. Take the home team and the points.
Tampa Bay +1
SHOCKER OF THE WEEK Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
3 of 16
SHOCKER OF THE WEEK Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers, 1:00 PM, CBS, Bank of America Stadium
The Cincinnati Bengals will take on a team searching for their first win, when they play the struggling Carolina Panthers. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the Bengals as three point road chalk with the over/under set at 38.
The Bengals are 1-1 on the season, but the great offense that was hyped in the off season has yet to emerge. Last week it was the defense that led the Bengals to a big divisional win over the Ravens.
They forced quarterback Joe Flacco into four turnovers and won with field goals. They are on letdown alert this week as they are in a division sandwich game with the Cleveland Browns on deck.
The Carolina Panthers have played poorly on the season and that is an understatement. They are 0-2 and already announcing a quarterback change.
The team will bench Matt Moore this week and let rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen get his first professional start. The Panthers will need to protect him with a good running game if they have any chance of winning this game.
I am asking for trouble in this game but I am backing the Carolina Panthers and a rookie quarterback. The Bengals have yet to prove that their offense works and are in a division sandwich.
The Panther players support the move to Clausen and will establish the running game. This game turns into a defensive battle, but I am looking for the panthers to win this game outright.
The Panthers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Bengals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Shocker of the week is the Panthers plus the points.
Carolina +3
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
4 of 16
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 PM, CBS, M&T Bank Stadium
The Baltimore Ravens will play the first home game of the season when they tangle with the Cleveland Browns. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the Ravens as 10.5 point favorites with the over/under set at 37.5.
The Cleveland Browns seem to still be suffering from some hard luck. In the first game of the season they lost to the Buccaneers after getting an early lead.
Then they lost at home to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won the game although they failed to score an offensive touchdown.
The Browns started Seneca Wallace at quarterback as Jake Delhomme sat out with an injury. Things don’t get easier this week as they face the Ravens off a loss.
The Ravens failed to get revenge and lost another game to the Bengals last week. The defense played well, but the offense could not execute and was plagued by turnovers.
Playing against the Browns and at home for the first time this season should help fix that problem.
I detest backing double digit favorites in the NFL, but sometimes it is the right play. The Browns are struggling to find their identity and the Ravens will be steaming off a loss.
The points don’t bother me as much since the Browns are 3-6 ATS as underdog of 10 or more and the Ravens are 6-0 ATS as favorite of 10 or more.
The Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. The Ravens have the edge in every category and will eat the Browns alive at home.
Ravens -10.5
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
5 of 16
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans, 1:00 PM, FOX, Reliant Stadium
The Dallas Cowboys are in need of a win when they run into the undefeated Houston Texans this week. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the Texans as three point favorites with the over/under set at 47.5.
Is it time to hit the panic button in Big D yet? The Cowboys lost a game on the road to the Redskins that they gave away, and then were outmatched at home against the Bears.
As nine point favorites, the Cowboys became the biggest upset of the year to date. Dez Bryant was the lone bright spot with a punt return for his first touchdown as a professional.
Besides that, the Cowboys are struggling and need to avoid a 0-3 start if they still have hopes of a championship.
The Texans pulled off an overtime victory on the road to remain unbeaten on the season. Matt Schaub led his team offensively passing for almost 500 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win against the Redskins.
There is no rest for the weary as they try to stave off a desperate Cowboys team looking for answers.
Is anyone ready to back the Cowboys yet? I really want to in this game but can’t bring myself to do it. The Cowboys had a “players only” meeting and they know this is the week they have to win or the season could be lost in the eyes of Dallas fans.
I don’t think it will be enough. The Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-5 ATS after game with 50 or more pass attempts.
The Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Cowboys have failed to ‘cover 19 of their last 26 on the road against AFC opponents and things go from bad to worse in Dallas.
Houston -3
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
6 of 16
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 PM, FOX, Arrowhead Stadium
The San Francisco 49ers hit the road on a short week to battle against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the 49ers as three point favorites with the over/under set at 36.5.
The 49ers are off a disappointing loss to the New Orleans Saints. The 49ers had a good outing by the entire team but just came up short in a Monday night thriller.
Alex Smith looked impressive throwing the ball and finally showed signs that he can be a big time quarterback. They now have to regroup on a short week and try to get their first week of the season on the road.
The Chiefs are undefeated on the season, but seem like they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
They beat the Chargers in Week 1 with special teams, and in Week 2 they beat the Browns without scoring an offensive touchdown. If they want to stay uneaten they will need some points from their offense.
The Chiefs don’t win pretty, but they are winning ballgames. The 49ers on the other hand seem as though they are doing everything they can to lose a game.
They are on a short week and I am backing the home dog with the crazy home field. The Chiefs have cashed 12 of 15 ATS after a win by three points or less and they are 20-9-1 ATS at home off a win.
San Francisco has struggled at 1-6 ATS as road favorites and KC is a cash machine as a home pup at 42-21-1 ATS. I might be pushing my luck but I am on the Chiefs.
Chiefs +3
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
7 of 16
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 PM, FOX, Metrodome
The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings play one another this week, and each team is looking for their first victory of the season. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the Vikings as 11-point favorites with the over/under set at 42.5.
The Minnesota Vikings are in the same boat as the Dallas Cowboys. They have yet to win a game, and are being labeled as some as a bust with an aging quarterback who should have retired.
A loss to the Detroit Lions would destroy this team and perhaps their post season chances.
The Vikings will destroy the Lions in this game. QB Brett Favre has had enough time to get back into the swing of things and the Vikings defense will shut down rookie Jahvid Best.
The Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The Lions are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
The Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against the NFC North and could very well lose this game by 30 points.
Vikings -11
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
8 of 16
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 1:00 PM, CBS, Gillette Stadium
The Buffalo Bills may have a hard time getting their first win of the season when they go up against the New England Patriots off a loss. BetPhoenix has the latest NFL odds and the Patriots are listed as 14 point favorites and the over/under is 42.5
The Buffalo Bills have yet to win a game and they are making changes on key positions on the team.
It was announced this week that Trent Edwards would not be the quarterback against the Patriots and Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the nod. The change will not help if they play like they did against the Packers.
The Patriots are off a very bad loss to the New York Jets and they got some more bad news during the week. Running back Kevin Faulk has been lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Sammy Morris will take over as the third down back. This is a big loss for the Patriots because Faulk is a leader on the field and one of the most productive players the Patriots have had.
I don’t like this game at all. The Patriots have owned the Bills and will win this game, but they may be giving too many points.
The Bills have made a change that the team supports publicly and Fitzpatrick is a disciplined quarterback.
The Patriots are 2-5 ATS as favorite of 10 or more and The Bills are surprisingly 11-5 ATS as division dogs on the road. I am not betting the bank on this one, but I will take the Bills and the points.
Buffalo +14
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
9 of 16
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, 1:00 PM, CBS, Superdome
In a NFC South divisional match up the Atlanta Falcons play the New Orleans Saints this Sunday. BetPhoenix has the latest NFL odds and the Saints are listed as 4 point favorites and the over/under is 49.5
If the Atlanta falcons want to prove they can compete in the NFC South they have to win this kind of game. The offense looked sharp as they put up over 41 points against the Cardinals but will have to do it on the road in a hostile environment.
Running back Jerious Norwood was lost for the year with a torn ACL and Jason Snelling will get the call to back up starter Michael Turner.
The Saints are coming off a dramatic win on a Monday night game and will only have a short week to prepare for their division rival.
The Falcons catch the Saints in a great position coming in off a short week and without the services of Reggie Bush, who broke a bone in his leg on Monday night.
The home team struggles in this series at 15-23 ATS in the last 38 meetings. New Orleans has floundered in 15 of its last 18 as division home favorites and are are 21-30-1 ATS at the Superdome in the last 52 games.
The Falcons are 18-9 ATS in the series when the total is 40 or greater and are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons make a move for the NFC South crown with a big win in the Big Easy.
Falcons +4
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams
10 of 16
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams, 4:05 PM, FOX, Edward Jones Dome
Donovan Mcnabb and the Washington Redskins play their first game on the road when they face the St. Louis Rams. BetPhoenix has the latest NFL odds and the Redskins are listed as 3.5 point favorites and the over/under is set at 38.
The Redskins lost a heart breaker to the Texans on the road and will have to shake it off in the game against the Rams.
The Rams have yet to win but they have shown signs of brilliance in the games that they have played. In fact if not for a few bonehead plays against the Raiders to include a roughing the passer penalty late in the game, the Rams may have won.
The Rams are playing some good football and are not as bad as people think. The defense is playing admirably and for a rookie Sam Bradford is adjusting well.
The Redskins are 6-17-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and are 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite for the first time on the year. The Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and almost loss to the Rams last year without Bradford.
The Redskins get caught looking past this game to a meeting with the Eagles and it ends up being a very close game.
Rams +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
11 of 16
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, 4:05 PM, FOX, EverBank Field
Michael Vick will get his second start as the Eagles quarterback when they fly south to play the Jacksonville Jaguars. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the Eagles as three-point road chalk with the over/under set at 44.5.
All of the noise surrounding this game just got louder when it was announced that Michael Vick would start this game for the Eagles. Kevin Kolb was announced the No. 1 starter to begin the season, but after suffering a concussion he has never returned to the field.
Vick ignited the Eagles offense against the Lions and lead the team to the first win of the year. He will try for win number two in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars traveled coast to coast and lost in ugly fashion to the San Diego Chargers. Quarterback David Garrard fired four interceptions in that game and will be looking for redemption in the game against the Eagles.
Anyone else surprised to see this line so low? The Eagles look great on offense with Vick at the helm, but the defense looked shaky against the Lions giving up big points and big yardage.
The Jags will have plenty of time to prepare for Vick and will be able to control the ball on offense against this defense. Jacksonville is 17-8 ATS after losing by 14 points or more and 19-10 ATS at home against NFC teams.
Philadelphia is 0-7 as favorites off a win where they failed to cover the spread and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Don’t be surprised if the Jaguars win this game.
Jacksonville +3
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals
12 of 16
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 PM, CBS, U of Phoenix Stadium
The Arizona Cardinals play host to the Oakland Raiders this weekend. The latest line posted by BetPhoenix has the Cardinals 4.5 point home favorites with the over/under set at 39.5
The Cardinals started the year off with a victory against the Rams, but then were blown out in Week 2 when they faced the Falcons. It will be interesting to see what team shows up this week.
The Oakland Raiders came from behind to beat the St. Louis Rams at home, and they did it with a change at quarterback. Bruce Gradkowski came in to relieve an ineffective Jason Campbell and passed for 162 yards and a touchdown.
The starter for this week has not been announced but all signs point to Gradkowski. Gradkowski began practice taking first-team snaps at quarterback in a sign that he will start this week at Arizona.
Oakland is a much better team with Gradkowski taking the snaps but they are still a bad team especially on the road.
On the other hand Arizona is a great home team and looking to get better after the pounding they took on the East Coast. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and are is 0-7 ATS as non-conference dogs of less than 10. Arizona wins big against the hapless Raiders.
Arizona -4.5
San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
13 of 16
San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:15 PM, Qwest Field
Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks return to the friendly confines of Qwest Field to take on the San Diego Chargers. BetPhoenix has posted the odds for this game and the Seahawks are 5.5 point underdogs and the over/under is set at 44.
The Chargers looked like the team that everyone thought they could be in week two when they demolished the Jaguars with a high octane offense that seemingly could have put up 50 points.
Hold out Vincent Jackson will reportedly be dealt this week. There are a few deals in place but none have yet to be finalized.
Rookie running back Ryan Matthews was injured against the Jags and held out as a precaution and should return this week against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks started the year off great, but were deflated in a romp at Denver. The good news is that the birds return to one of the best home field advantages in the National Football League, however beating the Chargers is a hefty task.
San Diego will be happy to get rid of Vincent Jackson this week, but unhappy with the results of this game. People underestimate the home field advantage the Seahawks have, and they will rebound from a miserable loss to the Broncos.
Seattle is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games against the AFC and 16-9-1 ATS dogs after losing straight up and ATS. Seattle has a legitimate shot of winning this game, but I will take the points.
Seattle +5.5
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
14 of 16
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, 4:15 PM, Invesco Field at Mile High
The Indianapolis Colts square off against the Denver Broncos this weekend in Denver. BetPhoenix has posted the odds for this game and the Colts are 5.5 point favorites and the over/under set at 48.
The Colts come into this contest off a big win on Sunday night against the New York Giants. For those of you that did not watch it, Peyton Manning was a surgeon.
He toyed with the Giants secondary all night long and dominated them with his play calls on the line of scrimmage. The Colts will go up against a Bronco team that is currently suffering from disbelief and a heavy heart.
This week, rookie wide receiver Kenny McKinley was found dead by an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head. He was well-loved by the team and the players and the coaches were moved to tears during the press conference.
Emotion is a tough factor to gauge when handicapping football, but it seems to help a team. The passing game of the Broncos is very good and the emergence of Orton and Royal as a deadly combination is something to watch.
Denver is 11-1 ATS as non-division home dogs of more than three points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a win. I can’t suggest that the Broncos upset the Colts, but it will be closer than most people think. The run on dogs continues in Week 3 for me.
Denver +5.5
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
15 of 16
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 8:20 PM, NBC, Sun Life Stadium
The Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets in a quest to take control of the AFC East. BetPhoenix has posted the odds for this game and the Dolphins are slim one point favorites and the over/under set at 34.5
The New York Jets enter this game with some off the field distractions. Wide receiver Braylon Edwards was arrested for driving while intoxicated early Tuesday morning.
It has been announced that he will suit up and play this Sunday against the Dolphins. This is not what the team needed coming off a big win against the Patriots.
The Dolphins are looking as though they are the team to beat in the AFC East. They beat Buffalo in game one and then pulled an upset over the Vikings in Minnesota. This is the first home game of the year and a win would secure first place in the competitive AFC East.
I don’t think it is too far-fetched to say that the Dolphins are the better team. The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against the AFC East and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Dolphins beat the Jets twice last year and do it again on Sunday night.
Miami -1
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
16 of 16
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 8:30 PM, ESPN, Soldier Field
In a battle for the early lead in the NFC North the Green Bay Packers venture into Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears. BetPhoenix has posted the latest NFL odds and they have the Packers as three point road favorites with the total set at 46.
The Green Bay Packers took care of business last week in a game against the Buffalo Bills. This game had all the feel of a preseason game and the Packers were never really challenged. That will change this week when they play on center stage against a division rival.
The Bears pulled off the biggest upset of the year this far by hammering the Dallas Cowboys on the road.
Mike Martz has installed a new offense and Jay Cutler is very comfortable in this system. He has the best quarterback rating in the NFL and is avoiding costly turnovers that have hurt him in the past.
The Bears are a deadly team in the league and look very nice as a home divisional dog under the Monday night lights.
The Bears have double revenge against the Packers and will get another win as an underdog and take over sole possession of first in the NFC North.
Bears +3
Good Luck this week!
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Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel Free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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