Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Pick & Odds: September 26th 2010

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Under 42 Points -110 odds
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the “under”:

The Lions saw the total go “under” the number in Week 1, losing 19-14 in Chicago; they saw it go “over” the number last week, losing 35-32 at home to the Eagles.

Detroit is 0-2; it’s not too far a stretch though to imagine this team actually sitting at 2-0 to start the season, if only it could have gotten a couple of lucky bounces or calls here or there.

Shoulda, coulda, woulda.

As good as the Lions looked in Week 1 on the defensive side of the ball was a horrible as they looked last week to the depleted Eagles.

Detroit looked sharp in Week 1 in shutting down the run, and will look to return to form this time around against the dangerous Adrian Peterson.

However, Detroit faces a rattled Vikings team that has struggled to score, and I look for that fact to give a confidence boost to the Lions here, especially on the defensive side, as they refuse to be intimidated.

It’s interesting to note, that dating back to last season, the Lions have in fact seen the total go “under” the number in 4 of their last 5 on the road; also in 8 of 13 vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.

On the other side of the field: Well…it’s finally happened. The “‘Ol Gunslinger” is showing his age; the Vikings saw the total go “under” the number in Week 1, losing 14-9 to the Saints on the road; they lost 14-10 to the Dolphins in Week 2, the total also staying well below the posted number.

I guess the argument could be made that Favre hasn’t actually “lost a step”, but is suffering from not having played a full pre-season.

Whichever way you look at it, the fact remains, Minnesota is 0-2; and this after being considered one of the favorites to win the NFC.

“Everybody knows we’re 0-2, there are 14 games left in the regular season,” coach Brad Childress said. “With a staff that’s stayed together here, we have good communication. We know what we need to work on and communication won’t be an issue. It’s just a matter of everybody taking that long journey and looking at what they need to do individually better offensively, defensively.”

Brett has thrown four INT’s to just one TD pass; obviously though, the Vikes offensive issues can’t entirely be put on Favre’s aging shoulders; Minnesota has just four WR’s at the moment and Percy Harvin has a hip injury which was scoped on Monday.

The continued absence of Sidney Rice isn’t helping matters either.

Dating back to last season the Vikes have seen the total go “under” the number in 9 of their last 12 overall; also in 6 of their last 7 at the Metrodome.

Bottom line: It has to be pointed out as well that in 5 of these teams last 6 vs. each other, regardless of the location, the total has also gone “under” the number.

There is considerable public money on the “over” according to the books, which makes this play an even sharper investment.

In a game where both teams are struggling for their first win of the season, I look for the defenses to take center stage here; consider a second look at the UNDER in this situation. Get more NFL football betting predictions from Nick at Touthouse.com