San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Odds & Pick: September 21st 2010

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Pick: San Francisco Giants -115 odds
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The Giants are coming off a pretty average homestand where they went just 3-3 including a series loss against the Brewers over the weekend. Still, they maintained first place in the National League West by a half-game over San Diego and a game and a half over Colorado so every game is big at this point. San Francisco is three games over .500 on the road with six games remaining and the series following this is at San Diego which makes this matchup with the Cubs even more important.

Chicago is red hot right now as it has won eight of its last nine games which is its best stretch of the season. There are two problems however. First, all of those games came on the road where the Cubs have a better record than at home. Second, they had a day off yesterday so all of the momentum built up during that roadtrip has been stalled. Going back to the end of July, Chicago is just 7-16 in its last 23 games at Wrigley Field showing the home field edge is no more.

San Francisco goes with Matt Cain and he has been a tough luck pitcher at times this season. He has a 3.08 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 30 starts but has just a 12-10 record to show for it. Run support has been the issue but it has gotten much better as San Francisco has averaged 5.7 rpg over his last five starts, all resulting in wins. Going back further, Cain has made 12 starts since the break and the Giants have won 10 of them with Cain going 6-2. He is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in nine career starts against the Cubs.

Carlos Zambrano has been just as good as his season has completely turned around since he was suspended. Zambrano has won five consecutive starts and is 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA since rejoining the rotation August 9th. That is a tough streak to go against but the majority of those games have come against non-playoff teams. The Cubs have lost two games since his return and they were against San Diego and San Francisco, the only two teams of the bunch still in the playoff hunt.

San Francisco is 10-1 in the second half of the season in road games against National League teams allowing 4.8 or more rpg and 10-1 in its last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record.. Meanwhile the Cubs are 11-22 at home against National League starters with a 3.50 ERA or better and they are 9-17 in Zambrano’s last 26 home starts against teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. 3* San Francisco Giants