NFL Picks Week 2: Patriots Over Jets and 15 More Bold Predictions
You don't become one of those people who foresees the entire NFL season based on just one week. The Texans are not a lock to face the Seahawks in Dallas for Super Bowl XLV.
But we did learn a lot last week. And no matter how Vegas sees it, there will be some surprises this week.
We predict each of the games this week with a slight nod towards the gambler in you.
Bills at Packers
1 of 16
Line: Packers by 13
Over/Under: 43
Green Bay is really going to miss Ryan Grant. Brandon Jackson will keep the void from becoming monstrously huge, but even more responsibility falls on Aaron Rodgers arm.
Buffalo is a scrappy team, as they showed last week against Miami. Three pretty talented running backs means Trent Edwards will have the opportunity to make plays downfield.
Prediction: Even at Lambeau, the Pack will struggle this week. Despite winning the ball game, they won’t cover, and together, the two teams will be safely under.
Dolphins at Vikings
2 of 16
Line: 5.5
Over/Under: 39
Minnesota’s offense never clicked in their opener at the Saints, but that is to be expected. When your quarterback misses most of the preseason, your best receiver is out, and you’re playing the World Champions at their home, a sharp effort is a tall order.
Another week will do wonders for Favre, and the Vikes will post a big number on offense. Miami is young and will gel much earlier than expected, but not on the road at a noisy Metrodome. Expect the offensive line to struggle with the snap counts.
Prediction: The Fins are in for a long day. Minnesota will nearly reach the over by themselves. Vikes cover and go with the over.
Cardinals at Falcons
3 of 16
Line: Falcons by 6.5
Over/Under: 43
Over the past two seasons, offense has been the strength for both of these teams. But neither one is the offensive juggernaut they were in 2008. Arizona’s defense has been remade with a handful of late-aged veterans and they will look slow on the carpet at the Georgia Dome.
Prediction: Falcons to cover but take the under.
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Ravens at Bengals
4 of 16
Line: Ravens by 2.5
Over/Under: 40
Until it was way too late, Cincinnati barely showed up last week against New England. Last year’s fine season was a real aberration, and when they fall to 0-2 this week, that will become even more apparent.
Marvin Lewis can add all the Pro Bowl/malcontent talent he wants, like T.O. and Adam Jones, but that doesn’t translate into wins.
Baltimore’s can beat many of the offensive headaches they experienced last week against the Jets by playing a porous and undisciplined Cincinnati D.
Prediction: Baltimore covers with plenty of room but both teams stay well under 20 points apiece.
Steelers at Titans
5 of 16
Line: Titans by 5
Over/Under: 37
Pittsburgh’s defense played very well last week, keeping Atlanta out of the end zone, and they will need another stingy effort in order to contain Chris Johnson and Vince Young. As much as the play of Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and co., more third down conversions in the passing game from their young quarterback will be just as vital to making it happen.
Tennessee’s game plan will be simple. Remain patient in the running game. Johnson won’t reel off a string of 10-plus yard gains but he can still put points on the board. And if Tennessee forces even one turnover, the Steelers will find themselves in a big hole.
Prediction: The Steelers pull off a minor road upset but it’s a trademark low-scoring affair. The under for sure.
Eagles at Lions
6 of 16
Line: Eagles by 6.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Michael Vick’s debut as the starter should be pretty entertaining against a ho-hum Lions front. But look for LeSean McCoy to gain the really tough yards. Against Shaun Hill, Philly’s front seven will have a field day, pressuring, sacking, and intercepting the replacement QB.
Although Detroit should have won the game last week based on Calvin Johnson’s non-catch, one competitive output against a divisional foe doesn’t put Detroit back on the map. Jahvid Best’s progress will take a step backwards in the face of the Eagles swarming defense.
Prediction: The Eagles cover easily and the Lions contribute just enough points to top the over.
Bears at Cowboys
7 of 16
Line: Cowboys by 7.5
Over/Under: 40.5
With all that talent on offense, the Cowboys will not be kept to just one score again this week. Tony Romo has too many weapons and that will show against Lovie Smith and the Tampa-2. Last Sunday’s loss to Washington is an entirely different game without the fluke fumble/TD at the end of the first half.
Don’t crown the Mike Martz-Jay Cutler-Matt Forte duo the next “greatest show on Turf” yet. The Cowboys speed on defense is light years ahead of what Chicago faced last week against Detroit. And Demarcus Ware is still the best pass rusher in the game.
Prediction: Dallas will come alive and, after a slow first half, surge past Chicago by double digits. Take the over.
Buccaneers at Panthers
8 of 16
Line: Panthers by 3.5
Over/Under: 39
Unless they play Cleveland every week and are gift-wrapped turnovers while doing so, Tampa’s defense is going to look inexperienced and mistake-prone: which they are. Josh Freeman made some key throws last week during their comeback win, but there isn’t enough talent on offense to mask the rest of the team’s problems.
After a rough start last week, the Panthers dynamic backfield duo will return to last season’s top form. The Bucs don’t have the muscle up front to wrap up Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart’s speed will add a handful of big gainers.
Prediction: Carolina blows the doors off their once-fearsome division rivals by two touchdowns-plus. But take the under just to be safe.
Chiefs at Browns
9 of 16
Line: Chiefs by 2
Over/Under: 39
Yes, the Chiefs toppled the Chargers last week and looked pretty good doing so. But woeful special teams was a big factor. And although KC will be facing a much more mistake-prone offense in Cleveland, points won’t come all that easily.
Despite all the talent in the NFL these days, two of the best players on the field in this showdown will be the Chiefs rookie returned Dexter Mccluster and the Browns Josh Cribbs. Cribbs will prove he is worth his new contract this week, racking up chunks of yards, and maybe even a score.
Prediction: The Chiefs hold on for a narrow victory but dueling average QBs will keep this one a low scoring effort, way under.
Rams at Raiders
10 of 16
Line: Raiders by 3.5
Over/Under: 37.5
Sam Bradford will make mistakes but he’ll also make some big plays. Even if he tosses three picks this week, two TDs might be enough to outperform the Raiders. St. Louis is a tad underrated on the defensive side of the ball.
Whatever good karma the Raiders built up last year and in the offseason pretty much vanished thanks to a terrible effort last week. Like the team that plays across the Bay, first round talent at a few key spots doesn’t translate into wins. The good news is that the upgrade to Jason Campbell will be on display at home.
Prediction: St. Louis drops Oakland to 2-0 but in a low scoring game. Take the under.
Seattle at Denver
11 of 16
Line: Denver by 3.5
Over/Under: 40
If Matt Hasselbeck is as accurate against Denver as David Garrard last week, the Seahawks will control the clock and put up another 25-plus points. And the seemingly instantaneous improvement to the defense, brought on by Pete Carroll’s arrival, will keep Seattle in several more games than anyone expected. This is one of them.
Because the Seahawks be blitz-happy, Kyle Orton will have opportunities to throw the ball. Finding receivers in the Seattle zone will determine how successful he is. And although Denver will limit Seattle on the ground, that speaks more to the Seahawks woes than the Broncos dominance.
Prediction: Seattle escapes the Mile High City as one of the surprise 2-0 teams. Together, however, the Hawks and Broncs will stay below 40.
Texans at Redskins
12 of 16
Line: Texans by 3
Over/Under: 43.5
Arian Foster’s incredible debut doesn’t mean the Texans are one of the league’s premier offenses, at least not yet. Traveling a couple thousand miles to play before the league’s largest crowd is a challenge that Houston will have to overcome to prove they belong. Expect the Texans exceptional front four to force quick (and occasionally bad) decisions from Donovan McNabb.
Washington is riding high from the win over Dallas. But the Cowboys lost that game; Washington really didn’t win it. And although that was last week, the Redskins will continue to have problems putting up points. Mike Shanahan’s cut-back, zone scheme will post yards, but when they reach the red zone, there are fewer options.
Prediction: The Texans deliver (nice pun?) at FedEx Field, by more than a touchdown. Go with the over.
Jaguars at Chargers
13 of 16
Line: Chargers by 7
Over/Under: 45.5
David Garrard was the key to last week’s win. All-world back Maurice Jones-Drew didn’t even break 100 yards and Jacksonville took the game over a wet Ever Bank Field. And if the Marcedes Lewis once again plays like a red zone phenom, the Jags will be a surprise contender in the AFC South.
Losing on the road to the Chiefs isn’t the concern for the Chargers. It was a myriad of mistakes that irritated Norv Turner…and a cranky Philip Rivers. A wealth of talent remains on both sides of the line for the Charger: Antonio Gates, Rookie Ryan Matthews, Quentin Jammer, possibly Shawn Merriman. But the special teams mistakes and problems with something as simple as the snap count held the Bolts back on Monday night. If they haven’t fixed those issues, an 0-2 start is in their future.
Prediction: An upset special here: the touchdown-underdog Jags go across the country and win. Take the over in a surprise shootout.
Patriots at Jets
14 of 16
Line: Patriots by 3
Over/Under: 38.5
Both teams feature very good defenses, but it’s tough to figure that the Pats will be kept under 20 points. Brady looked way too sharp last week to expect anything less than another 300-yard, 70% completion day.
The Jets have a whole host of problems right now, especially the loss of Kris Jenkins and Darrelle Revis’ bum hamstring.
Prediction: Take New England to cover and take the over.
Giants at Colts
15 of 16
Line: Colts by 5
Over/Under: 48
Even with several changes to the Giants defense, the unit remains one of the conference’s best. And, quite surprisingly, New York has assembled a pretty potent pair of receivers in Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. The Giants are much more equipped to win games on offense than they were last year.
Who cares if the Colts can’t run the ball? They’ll still score points. Houston may have kept Peyton Manning to just one touchdown through three quarters but he still tossed for 433 yards. Because the Giants pass rush is superior to most, he’ll have to get rid of the ball faster. That could lead to a couple of big catches and runs for his wonderful receiving corps.
Prediction: The Colts don’t cover in an overtime winner of Big Blue but the Manning boys toss a whole lotta touchdowns. Take the over….way over.
Saints at 49ers
16 of 16
Line: Saints by 5.5
Over/Under: 44
The 49ers are apt to be one of the league’s biggest disappointment, and an 0-2 start will spread that sentiment across the league. They showed almost no fight last week in a divisional game against Seattle, and the Alex Smith comeback train lost much of its momentum with a 31-6 loss to a rookie coach. Fortunately, San Fran has Patrick Willis and a few other talents on defense to keep them in ballgame...hopefully.
Perhaps the Saints have finally embraced what we all know: you don’t have to possess a dominant running game to win a Super Bowl, or a season opener. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will contribute yards on the ground, but the strength of this team is the passing game. And if the defense continues to force turnover—they don’t have to return them for scores like last season—they will cruise into the postseason.
Prediction: The Saints cover despite a shaky start; considering how bad the 49ers offense was last week, take the under just to be safe.
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