NFL Picks Week 2: 10 Games Worth the Gamble
With Week 2 rapidly approaching, it's time for more football and it's time to break down this week's slate of games and which ones have the best betting lines.
There's a lot of interesting numbers up on the board this week and a couple tough games to break down. You'll find my top 10 games to take action on, and some of them may surprise you. Each game is broken down by my confidence (1-10) on the line, the matchup, and a hot player coming into the game with a conclusion at the end.
If you disagree, drop it in the comments, and if you think I missed a game, let me know and why.
No. 10: Arizona at Atlanta
1 of 10
The Line
Atlanta -6.5: 8—The Falcons didn't look like the most explosive team last week against a tough Pittsburgh defense, and I'm not sure they're a touchdown better than the Cardinals. While Derek Anderson didn't look great for Arizona, I think there's enough weapons on offense and playmakers on defense to keep this game close.
The Matchup
6: Neither team looked great last week, especially Arizona, who struggled with St. Louis, a team starting a rookie quarterback. Atlanta struggled mightily on offense all day last Sunday, and Matt Ryan seems to have taken a step back as a quarterback. This could be an ugly slugfest between the two teams.
Hot Players
Steve Breaston: 7—Breaston showed why Arizona traded Anquan Boldin, pulling in seven passes for 132 yards against St. Louis. He''ll do a great job of drawing attention away from Larry Fitzgerald and making plays down the field. I'd pencil him in for at least one long catch on Sunday
Conclusion
The Falcons giving that many points just screams for you to take the points and run with Arizona. I think this game is going to be closer than people think. I'm just not sold on Ryan, and I don't have nearly enough faith in him right now to expect him to cover that spread. Take Arizona.
No. 9: Chicago at Dallas
2 of 10
The Line
Dallas -8.5: 8—The Cowboys looked unspectacular last week and the Bears weren't particuarly impressive either, but I don't have faith yet in Dallas' red zone offense to make them nine points better than Chicago, even in the home opener. Nine points is a ton to cover for any team, let alone one with offensive line issues.
The Matchup
3: I'm not really thrilled about this matchup. It's not calling out to me as something that's a sure thing one way or another. Chicago screams to me that they're a middle of the road team, and Dallas could be a colossal underachiever yet again. I couldn't be more torn about this matchup and have no idea what teams are showing up on Sunday.
Hot Players
5: Jay Cutler had a big game last Sunday and avoided throwing multiple interceptions last week which is a great thing for fantasy owners and people who had faith in Chicago this year. Cutler will need to be steady again for the Bears to keep the game close. However, I'll believe he's a consistent performer when I see it.
Conclusion
The Bears didn't cover last week against Detroit, and I don't have a ton of faith in this pick, but I think they can keep it close enough to cover. I don't think Dallas is good enough at this point to win by nine or more against the Bears. I'm going with Chicago, but I'm not betting the farm on it.
No. 8 Kansas City at Cleveland
3 of 10
The Line
Cleveland -1.5: 8—I'm not sure why Cleveland is favored in this game. The Browns looked sloppy and ugly against Tampa Bay last week, and I think the only reason has to be the fact that the Browns are hosting this game. I just see no other reason a team that looked so bad would be favored.
The Matchup
9: If the Chiefs can beat the Chargers on Monday night, then Kansas City is more than up to the task of beating Cleveland. Kansas City should make big strides in the running game.
Hot Players
8.5: Jamaal Charles is my player I'm looking at. Charles broke off a huge touchdown run against San Diego and with him splitting carries with Thomas Jones, it should keep him fresh late into the game and make him a force against Cleveland.
Conclusion
I like the Chiefs a lot in this one. I think they're going to be able to run the ball pretty well, and Matt Cassel will make enough plays to keep the Browns honest. I'd be betting on the Chiefs and I really wouldn't be looking back. The Chiefs are scrappy, and they're going to keep this one close.
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No. 7: Jacksonville at San Diego
4 of 10
The Line
San Diego -7.5: 9—After last week, no line is safe for the Chargers, who have had slow starts in the past. With Ryan Mathews struggling in the backfield, I'm not sure how balanced San Diego will be, and I think that's going to keep the score down in this game a bit, or at least keep it close.
The Matchup
7: Jacksonville looked better than expected against Denver while San Diego dropped a shocker to Kansas City on Monday night. I'm not saying that Chargers fans should be bracing for an upset, but I'm not so sure this game won't be closer than the odds makers think.
Hot Players
6: David Garrard looked good against Denver last week, making plays in the passing game, so maybe it's a return to the type of play that helped lead the Jags deep into the playoffs a couple of years ago. Garrard will need to make plays to help open up Maurice Jones-Drew in the running game. Not to mention what a threat he is on swing passes.
Conclusion
Personally, I think San Diego will rebound and win this game, but I think Jacksonville will hang tough in this game, especially with the Chargers being a little more one-dimensional than we expected them to be. The Jags will lose a couple of close games this year and this will be one of them.
No. 6: New Orleans at San Francisco
5 of 10
The Line
New Orleans -4.5: 7—The Saints looked solid but unspectacular in the opener against Minnesota, but I think with a long week, it will make them sharper as opposed to a little rusty out of the gate on Monday night. There's going to be a connection between Drew Brees and his wideouts, and I think this will be the Saints' offensive explosion.
The Matchup
8: The 49ers didn't look very good last Sunday against Seattle and just looked like they didn't show up to play as the Seahawks just pummeled them. I'm not saying that's going to happen again, but I think the Saints have a little too much firepower for San Fran to handle.
Hot Players
Drew Brees: 9—He's Drew Brees on a Monday night. With his offensive weapons, there's no real reason to bet against a guy like that under the spotlight. I like Brees a lot this week and I'm expecting at least 300 yards and two scores from him on Monday night.
Conclusion
The Saints are more explosive than they looked last week, and the 49ers are better than they looked last week. Sadly, that's not enough for San Francisco, and I think New Orleans will win by at least 10 points and cover the spread.
No. 5: Philadelphia at Detroit
6 of 10
The Line
Philadelphia -3.5: 8—I think this is a pretty fair line, considering the Eagles are hitting the road to take on Detroit, and considering the better quarterback is under center for Philadelphia in Michael Vick. I think -3.5 is almost a gift at this point.
The Matchup
9: With both teams missing their starting quarterbacks, this favors the Eagles by far. Michael Vick is exponentially better than Shawn Hill under center, and I think Vick will shine against Detroit and cause havoc for the Lions defense.
Hot Players
Michael Vick: 8.5—Vick looked great against Green Bay last week, and while that had to do with him coming off the bench and not being planned for, Vick showed a lot of speed and quickness that had been lacking since his return to the NFL. Detroit is going to have its hands full with the quarterback on Sunday.
Conclusion
I think Philadelphia is going to win this game going away against the Lions. Detroit is a scrappy team and I love that, but without Matthew Stafford, it's just too much for the Lions to overcome. I'm not a big fan of the Eagles, but they'll win this week.
No. 4: NY Giants at Indianapolis
7 of 10
The Line
Indianapolis -5.5: 9 - While the Colts had issues protecting Peyton Manning last week against Houston, it's hard to bet against Peyton Manning at home and at night. Those are the biggest Manning moments, and Carolina hung around for a while against the Giants and had a chance to win that game.
The Matchup
7: It's the Manning Bowl, which makes me sick just thinking about it, but Carolina moved the ball fairly well against the Giants last week, and if it weren't for three red zone turnovers by Matt Moore, maybe we're talking about how the Panthers pulled an upset last week. I think the Colts will move the ball with ease against the Giants defense.
Hot Players
Peyton Manning: 10—I can't give Manning anything less than a top score in a primetime game at home. Manning is a total assassin under center, and he thrives for those moments. Coming off of a loss, I think Peyton is going to want to send a message to the league that the Colts aren't dead yet.
Conclusion
There are a few constants in this world. Life, death, taxes, and Peyton Manning in primetime games. I will bet Manning every time in a night game, and while I'll lose from time to time, it will be far less than I win. I love the Colts in this matchup.
No. 3: Houston at Washington
8 of 10
The Line
Houston -2.5: 9—I couldn't be happier with this line. Washington's offense didn't look great last week against Dallas, and Donovan McNabb is still trying to get back from his ankle injury. Meanwhile, I think this is Matt Schaub's breakout week this year after Arian Foster's last week.
The Matchup
8: I think Houston's going to be able to throw on the Redskins this week after seeing what Tony Romo did to them last week. The Texans won't throw it as much as Dallas did, but they'll be able to make big plays with Andre Johnson to open up Arian Foster, because you know Washington won't want to let him beat them like he did to Indianapolis.
Hot Players
Arian Foster: 6—I like Foster this week, but I'm expecting the Redskins to be keying on him after last week. You can't rush for over 200 yards and three scores and not have a gameplan waiting for you the week after. I'm iffy on Foster carrying the load this week. I'm expecting more of a balance.
Conclusion
I think the Texans are going to win this game and go 2-0. If that happens, I'm not sure how Houston will find a way to go .500 again, but I'm sure they will. I won't believe the Texans are making the playoffs until I see it.
It's like spotting the Loch Ness Monster. You may hear of sightings, but you won't believe until you see Nessie with your own two eyes.
No. 2: Baltimore at Cincinnati
9 of 10
The Line
Baltimore -1.5: 5.5—I like the Ravens a lot this year, they're my Super Bowl pick out of the AFC, but last year in Cincy, the Bengals dominated the clock and won the game and eventually swept the season series. Now this isn't the same Ravens team, but it's going to be a tough game and it's a tough line.
The Matchup
7: This is a clash of two great teams, and even though the Bengals got stomped against the Patriots before a few scores in garbage time, this is a heated rivalry. I think the Ravens are still getting settled with all of their new additions on offense, so it may take time before it clicks.
Hot Players
Anquan Boldin: 8—I like Boldin a lot, and he had a big day against the Jets on Monday night, so I think he'll find more success in the passing game as it seems like he and Joe Flacco already have a solid connection between them. He's going to open up the rest of the offense for Baltimore this week.
Conclusion
I think the Ravens will cover this spread, but it's a short week and it's a rivalry game. All bets are really off, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say the Ravens cover. I have faith in this team, and it will be tested in a big way, but I expect to be a happy man on Sunday afternoon.
No. 1: New England at NY Jets
10 of 10
The Line
New England -1.5: 7.5—I think after the way the two teams looked in their respective games last week, this may be a generous line. The Jets didn't look like they could put points up on the board if you spotted them midfield on every possession. Meanwhile, the Pats looked dominant against a contender in Cincinnati last week.
The Matchup
10: I'm going as high as possible because this is must-see TV this Sunday. If you don't get this game regionally or don't have Sunday Ticket, my condolences, because this is the game of the week. I think New England's offense is going to make some strides this week with Wes Welker being matched up on Kyle Wilson and Darrelle Revis nursing a sore hamstring.
Hot Players
Wes Welker: 9—Welker had a big day in his return from a devastating knee injury and now he gets to feast on rookie Kyle Wilson. That's going to be a long day for the corner out of Boise State, as he has to chase Welker all over the field. While people will be focusing on Randy Moss vs. Revis, I'm going to be looking at this matchup. Look for Welker to shine.
Conclusion
I think the Pats are going to win this game, and I think the Jets are going to be getting close to hitting the panic button after starting 0-2 with all the hype that surrounded this team coming into the season. It's going to be a close game, but New England should win by at least a field goal, if not more.
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