NFL Picks Week 2: Were Week 1 Surprises a Fluke Or Legit?
In Week 1, teams like Seattle shocked the nation and crushed San Francisco with style points.
Sometimes those surprises pan out and turn into a contender, and sometimes they don't pan out and it was the biggest highlight in an otherwise miserable season. I'm breaking down this week's schedule and ranking the games by my confidence in a victory.
If you disagree with my picks, air it out in the comments and let me know who you think is your lead pipe lock to win this week.
No. 16: Kansas City at Cleveland
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Why Kansas City Will Continue Winning
It certainly won't be because of Matt Cassel. The Chiefs will pound the rock with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones and it'll be hard for Cleveland to stop. Charles is not only strong, but he'll run right by you to the house and the Browns can't compete with that.
Why Cleveland Will Continue Losing
Because they're Cleveland. But seriously, Jake Delhomme is going to turn the ball over like it's a bodily function and they just don't have any weapons on offense outside of Josh Cribbs. Romeo Crennel will have his defense ready to go and it'll show on Sunday.
Prediction
Chiefs 20, Browns 7
Key To The Win
Jamaal Charles was big in Kansas City's win over San Diego and was the man down the stretch last season. The Chiefs have a great player on their hands and he's going to prove that last year wasn't a fluke one week at a time, especially against the hapless Browns.
No. 15: Tampa Bay at Carolina
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Why Tampa Bay Will Continue Winning
It'll be because of Josh Freeman. Freeman looked comfortable under center last week. He put some zip on his passes and was getting it to the right receiver on time. Freeman will have to lead this offense and put his team in a position to win the game.
Why Carolina Will Continue Losing
The Panthers quarterback situation is one of, if not the worst in the league. Matt Moore threw three red zone picks and Jimmy Clausen may have to play thanks to Moore's concussion. It's just a bad situation in Carolina and John Fox will be a casualty sooner or later.
Prediction
Tampa Bay 24, Carolina 21
Key To The Win
Josh Freeman has to protect the ball and avoid losing the turnover battle. The Panthers will give the ball back to Tampa Bay during the course of the game and if the Bucs can protect it, they're going to get short fields to work with and rack up points.
No. 14: Arizona at Atlanta
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Why Arizona Will Continue Winning
The Cardinals will continue their winning ways because of their weapons on offense. With Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston split out wide, it's a challenge for any team to stop in the secondary. It really lessens the burden on Derek Anderson.
Why Atlanta Will Continue Losing
Matt Ryan has just not been the same quarterback we saw in his rookie year. I'm not sure what happened or where he went but it's just not the same and Mattie Ice is a thing of the past.
Prediction
Arizona 28, Atlanta 17
Key To The Win
If Steve Breaston can get open down the field, he'll make big plays in the passing game as Fitzgerald eats up Atlanta's secondary underneath.
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No. 13: Seattle at Denver
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Why Seattle Will Continue Winning
The Seahawks made big plays in the passing game last week and they'll have to do it against to keep the streak alive. Wideouts like Deon Butler will have to find separation and Matt Hasselbeck will have to be smart in his reads.
Why Denver Will Continue Losing
Denver's secondary looked shaky at best at David Garrard picked them apart for three touchdowns last Sunday. Without Elvis Dumervil applying pressure on the quarterback, opposing teams are getting plenty of time to throw.
Prediction
Seattle 27, Denver 14
Key To The Win
I never thought I'd say Mike Williams was the key to anything after the career he's had, but Williams has been a big threat through the preseason into Week 1 and will have to be that favorite target of Hasselbeck's again this week.
No. 12: St. Louis at Oakland
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Why St. Louis Will End Its Losing Ways
Sam Bradford looked poised in the pocket last week, despite his three interceptions. He got a vote of confidence from Arizona wideout Larry Fitzgerald, who said Bradford is going to be something special. Bradford has brought life to the Rams and we'll see that.
Why Oakland Will Continue Losing
The Raiders just could not protect Jason Campbell and the Titans defensive line just ripped the Oakland O-line to shreds. Oakland couldn't make many plays outside of Darren McFadden and the Raiders are just the Raiders.
Prediction
St. Louis 17, Oakland 14
Key To The Win
Chris Johnson found a lot of running room and the Rams should try and control the pace of the game with Steven Jackson and then let Bradford make just enough plays to win the game. Bradford threw a lot last week and that can't happen again.
No. 11: Jacksonville at San Diego
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Why San Diego Will End Its Losing Ways
The Chargers just really let that one slip away in the end. Rivers had a wide open man in the end zone and just threw it behind Malcom Floyd. The Chargers have started slow before and it's not time to press the panic button.
Why Jacksonville Will Continue Losing
The Jags aren't coached well and it's only a matter of time before Jack Del Rio gets canned. Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville doesn't have many weapons. I'm not sure where Mike Sims-Walker went but he didn't crack the stat sheet.
Prediction
San Diego 31, Jacksonville 21
Key To The Win
With Vincent Jackson still holding out, Antonio Gates will be getting the majority of the looks from Rivers and he's going to have to find separation to help his quarterback out. Ryan Mathews will also have to make plays in the running game.
No. 10: NY Giants at Indianapolis
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Why Indianapolis Will End Its Losing Ways
Peyton Manning is just too good to start the season 0-2. Manning really flung the rock around last week but the Colts will help him out with a steady dose of the run to balance it out. Carolina was able to move the ball last week and Indy most certainly will.
Why New York's Streak Will Get Snapped
Eli Manning made a lot of turnovers against Carolina and I think the Colts will force him into mistakes. Manning will not protect the ball if Dwight Freeney can get pressure on him.
Prediction
Indianapolis 35, New York 20
Key To The Win
Austin Collie had a monster game last week and if he can start gobbling up yards underneath it's going to break things wide open for guys like Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon.
No. 9: Miami at Minnesota
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Why Minnesota Will End Its Losing Ways
Minnesota will be more in sync after practicing on a long week and there will be more completions that didn't connect last week. Adrian Peterson will be his dominant self and it'll just open things up for Brett Favre.
Why Miami's Streak Will Get Snapped
The Dolphins may have been the least impressive team in a win outside of Chicago and Washington. I know they got the job done but the Dolphins just barely got by against Buffalo and I'm not sold on Miami just yet.
Prediction
Minnesota 20, Miami 10
Key To The Win
Adrian Peterson will have to really grind it out, control the pace of the game, and open it up for Favre just to make enough plays to get by. Favre isn't in game shape right now, and may not be with the ankle so the pressure is on Peterson to make plays and hold on to the ball.
No. 8: Chicago at Dallas
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Why Dallas Will End Its Losing Ways
The Cowboys moved the ball pretty well against Washington but just couldn't finish the job once they got deep in to Redskin territory. Hopefully this will smarten them up, but how many times have we said this about Dallas though?
Why Chicago Will Continue Losing
Chicago should have lost to the Lions on Sunday and while Jay Cutler played well minus one interception, I think he'll make more mistakes against a better defense in Dallas. I don't think the Bears are that good and it showed last week.
Prediction
Dallas 24, Chicago 13
Key To The Win:
The Cowboys need to commit to the run and lessen the burden on Tony Romo, who threw until his arm almost fell of against Washington. While Detroit didn't get much going against the Bears with the run, I think the Cowboys could find running lanes with Marion Barber.
No. 7: Philadelphia at Detroit
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Why Philadelphia Will End Its Losing Ways
It looks like Michael Vick will get the start for Philadelphia and I think that's going to open up the Eagles offense. Vick will bring the linebackers in with the threat of scrambling and he can get it over the top to his wideouts.
Why Detroit Will Continue Losing
With Matthew Stafford out, I have no faith in Shaun Hill leading this team to victory. Philadelphia won't be the best team in the NFC, but they're good enough to shut down Calvin Johnson and the Lions' offense.
Prediction
Philadelphia 27, Detroit 10
Key To The Win
Michael Vick looked explosive last week against Green Bay, but that was because the Packers didn't prepare for him at quarterback. Vick will have to make plays with his legs because that's just who he is.
No. 6: New Orleans at San Francisco
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Why New Orleans Will Continue Winning
The Saints looked solid but unspectacular against Minnesota, but I think their offense is going to break out this week. If Seattle can make big plays in the passing game, Drew Brees will be able to as well. Look for him to spread San Fran out and pick them apart.
Why San Francisco Will Continue Losing
While the 49ers aren't as bad as they looked last week against Seattle, they're not good enough to beat New Orleans, even on a Monday night at home. I think the Saints will force Alex Smith to throw and that's where it's going to get ugly for the 49ers.
Prediction
New Orleans 35, San Francisco 17
Key To The Win
I think Reggie Bush is going to make plays on special teams and out of the backfield on swing passes and may break one long touchdown for the Saints this weekend. I think New Orleans is going to get him involved early and often.
No. 5: Houston at Washington
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Why Houston Will Continue Winning
The Texans pounded the ball with Arian Foster against a hapless Colts run defense but don't forget about Matt Schaub. Tony Romo made plays in the passing game against the Redskins and Schaub is going to get downfield against the Redskins early and often.
Why Washington's Streak Will Get Snapped
The Redskins were not impressive at all against Dallas. The Cowboys lost that game more than Washington won it and when you don't score an offensive touchdown, it's hard to pick you to beat a team that defeated the reigning AFC champions.
Prediction
Houston 31, Washington 13
Key To The Win
Andre Johnson, the best wideout in the game, will have to play like it to help open up Arian Foster in the backfield. After last week, no one's going to be sleeping on Foster so Houston will have to open up some running lanes through the air.
No. 4: Baltimore at Cincinnati
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Why Baltimore Will Continue Winning
The Ravens are coming into the game on a short week but New England was able to pick apart the Bengals' secondary and I think Joe Flacco will do the same. Flacco has targets for days and he's going to find them down the field for a couple of big scores.
Why Cincinnati Will Continue Losing
Carson Palmer's stat line is misleading. Palmer had a bad game and a lot of interceptions were dropped by the Patriots' defense. Palmer won't be able to get away with that against the Ravens' defense.
Prediction
Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 14
Key To The Win
Ray Rice was shut down by the Jets but he has to get back on track this week against the Bengals. Flacco can't do it himself and he needs his big back to gash the Bengals' defense to set up the play action.
No. 3: New England at NY Jets
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Why New England Will Continue Winning
The Patriots blew the doors off of the Bengals, who people were big fans of coming into the season. New England looked really good on both sides of the ball, even if they let up off the gas at the end of the game and let the Bengals get some garbage touchdowns.
Why New York Will Continue Losing
There are not enough words I could use to describe how bad New York's offense looked on Monday. They couldn't run, they couldn't pass, they couldn't convert third down, they couldn't get a first down, and they couldn't hold on to the ball. I just don't think that's going to improve over night.
Prediction
New England 20, New York 10
Key To The Win
Randy Moss was trapped on Revis Island like the castaways on Lost last year, and don't expect Randy to pull a Jack Shephard and want to go back. Moss is determined to prove a point this week and he has to do it to help Tom Brady out.
No. 2: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
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Why Tennessee Will Continue Winning
While it was only Oakland, the Titans defensive line looked dominant last week and with Pittsburgh missing starters on the offensive line, Tennessee could get pressure on Dennis Dixon and shut down the run game.
Why Pittsburgh's Streak Will Be Snapped
While the defense shut down, I think the Titans have more horses than Atlanta, something I never thought I'd say about a Titans team. Chris Johnson will find running lanes if Vince Young can make strides in the passing game.
Prediction
Tennessee 21, Pittsburgh 17
Key To The Win
I'm not sold on Tennessee's linebacking core, and they're going to have to be stout in the running game to shut down Rashard Mendenhall and force Dennis Dixon to beat them through the air, something I don't believe he can do.
No. 1: Buffalo at Green Bay
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Why Green Bay Will Continue Winning
Aaron Rodgers will be able to find his wideouts down the field quite often after having a shaky start against the Eagles last week. Rodgers is just too good to be slowed down, especially by a team like Buffalo.
Why Buffalo Will Continue Losing
The Bills are poorly coached, they have almost no skill players to speak of, and their quarterback is a disaster waiting to happen. If that's not a reason Buffalo won't win, then I don't know what is.
Prediction
Green Bay 38, Buffalo 10
Key To The Win
Brandon Jackson is now the man in the Packers' backfield after Ryan Grant was lost for the year. Jackson has to keep the Bills honest on the ground and find some running lanes. That will be something to watch all year long in Green Bay
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