Pay Close Attention To This Position And You Will Be League Champion!

 'Why Running Back Is Still The Most Important Position In Fantasy Football Today.'

By: Dan Potoczny

There's been a lot of speculation the past few years that quality WRs are better, or my reliable, than quality RBs. So I've decided to give my two cents.

In a standard non-ppr league, I think it's not even a comparison so we'll go straight to PPR leagues to give the WRs a fair shot. Same being said, QB touchdowns count as 4 points as 6 points and there is definitely an advantage their way.

So why are running backs more important that WRs or QBs? The answer is two words: Unconditional Volume. Your starting running back(s) are going to get the majority of touches on their respective teams. Therefore, they will have more opportunities for higher scores. Now there are obvious exceptions to this rule, hence RBBC as well as robots (Like Andre Johnson.) A high level running back may see the bay 20-30+ times per game, especially if he is involved in the passing game. On the contrary, WRs are typically only involved in the passing game and 10 catches for a WR is an outstanding game. Of the top 15 WRs from 2009, DeSean Jackson had the least amount of catches (63, or 3.9 per game) and Wes Welker had the most (123 or 7.6 per game). Of course Welker didnt play all 16 games so his average would be higher and you can't judge a position only by their top player, but the next top was Steve Smith (NYG) with 107 (6.6). Because of this, there are many more productive receivers to go around than running backs, making running backs a much more desirable and needed position.


BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

This shows that the average amount of times top-tier WRs touch the ball

I still dont get it!!
Now lets compare!!

In 2009, out of the top 15 overall fantasy running backs, Chris Johnson had the most rushing attempts at 358 (22.3 rushes/game) as well as 50 receptions to make a grand total of 25.5 TOTAL touches per game! Now you obviously can't say since one player at a position performed heroically that it's the norm. (See Wes Welker). So who had the 2nd most touches? Steven Jackson with 324 rushing attempts (20.25 per game) and 50 receptions for a total of 23.3 touches per game. Well let's look at the bottom side of the 15. Not counting Jamaal Charles' 230 touches in practically 8 games, the next least are: RBBC members DeAngelo Williams (216 rush attempts and 29 receptions and teammate Jonathan Stewart (221 rush attempts and 18 receptions). Both of them averaged 15 touches PER GAME and are teammates!! In the middle of a Carolina Sandwich, from the non-running Colts, is Joseph Addai. Addai rushed 219 times last year and caught 51 balls for a total of 270 catches (16.8 per game).


I STILL DON'T GET IT!

What this shows, is that out of the top 15 fantasy running backs in 2009, they were able to touch the ball between 15-22 times per game, whereas out of the top 15 WRs, they touched the ball 4-6 times on average.

Also, aside from RBBC members, when a team runs the ball their starting running back gets my far the majority of the carries. On the other hand, many teams share passing targets fairly evenly and even when they don't their stud receiver rarely receives 80%+ of the pass attempts. Meaning other WRs are stealing your oh-so-important catches, touchdown balls AND yardage, where your running back will hog them all.


But what about quarterbacks? They have the whole team to throw to!

While this is true, in most leagues quarterbacks will only receive four points for touchdown passes and one point per 25 yards passing, as opposed to the 6 points for touchdowns and 10 yards per point at the other positions. In short, receivers and running backs have a 2.5:1 point advantage as far as yardage and a 2:1 advantage as far as touchdowns. Remember the two words that make running backs the most important? Well QBs only have the volume, as they are on a different scoring system so it is more conditional.


Can actual numbers backup my theory? Well let's take a look!


First, lets start with our running backs. Here's 2009's top 15 producers:
Running Backs

RB, Johnson, C. , TEN 397
RB, Jones-Drew, M. , JAC 314
RB, Peterson, A. , MIN 312
RB, Rice, R. , BAL 310
RB, Gore, F. , SF 274
RB, Jones, T. , KC 237
RB, Williams, R. , MIA 234
RB, Addai, J. , IND 233
RB, Jackson, S. , STL 230
RB, Grant, R. , GB 226
RB, Charles, J. , KC 219
RB, Jackson, F. , BUF 209
RB, Forte, M. , CHI 207
RB, Williams, D. , CAR 203
RB, Stewart, J. , CAR 200


Now as you can see, after the four, there's a significant jump to five, then another significant jump to six. Notice the numbers stay fairly equal until ten, then drop again all the way until 15. These are the difference makers in leagues and is essential to have a few of these runners as after 15 the drop off is quite dramatic.


Lets take a peek at our receivers

Wide Receivers

WR, Johnson, A. , HOU 314
WR, Austin, M. , DAL 288
WR, Moss, R. , NE 287
WR, Welker, W. , NE 286
WR, Wayne, R. , IND 283
WR, Fitzgerald, L. , ARZ 277
WR, Marshall, B. , MIA 273
WR, White, R. , ATL 267
WR, Smith, S. , NYG 265
WR, Rice, S. , MIN 259
WR, Jackson, D. , PHI 253
WR, Ward, H. , PIT 244
WR, Jackson, V. , SD 234
WR, Holmes, S. , NYJ 224
WR, Colston, M. , NO 224

Now AJ is obviously much higher than the next best as he is clearly the top WR pick. Funny, as he only scored 26 more points than the next receiver (1.6 per game). Strange, how the #1 RB is debatable even though CJ had a whooping 83 more than the next best back yet the #1 WR is a lock despite only having 16 points more. Now look at the list real good. What don't you see? The multiple drop-offs that you see at RB! Yeah there are some, but not nearly like the backs have. After 15, the trend continues with the WRs, gradually decreasing, yet still all are fairly good producers. After #15 there are still players such as Greg Jennings, Steve Smith (CAR) and Calvin Johnson. What about RB after 15? There's Pierre Thomas, Cedric Benson and Knowshon Moreno at the top of the list making it even more vital to secure top 15 caliber backs.



Lets take a real quick look at QBs

Quarterback

QB, Rodgers, A. , GB 347
QB, Brees, D. , NO 301
QB, Manning, P. , IND 292
QB, Schaub, M. , HOU 289
QB, Romo, T. , DAL 289
QB, Favre, B. , MIN 289
QB, Brady, T. , NE 285
QB, Roethlisberger, B. , PIT 273
QB, Rivers, P. , SD 272
QB, McNabb, D. , WAS 238
QB, Manning, E. , NYG 236
QB, Cutler, J. , CHI 222
QB, Orton, K. , DEN 214
QB, Garrard, D. , JAC 213
QB, Campbell, J. , OAK 209


The numbers speak for themselves here. Obviously Aaron Rodgers owned 2009's passing game. The next 6, which can be taken up to the 5th-6th round are practically identical. Then there's a little drop off to 8 and 9, and again at 10 where it pretty much doesn't matter anymore. So as long as you secure a top 7ish quarterback you should be safe without sacrificing more than a point or two per game aside from Rodgers. (once again, see wes welker)



So let's find a formula. Take two players, both 3 ranks apart and find the difference.

Example: (RB #4 - RB#7) or in this case, Ray Rice - Ricky Williams(310-234) = 76 point difference! Or 4.75 points EVERY game.

Try for WRs now. (WR #4 - WR #7) Wes Welker - Brandon Marshall (286-273) = 13 points, less than a point per game.


This formula should look like this (WR4-WR7) < (RB4-RB7)

Let's try it again, this time 5 positions down.

RB #5 Gore (274) - RB #10 Grant (226), a 48 point difference.

WR #5 Wayne (283) - WR #10 Rice (259), a 24 point difference. Half the running back difference!

Once again, (WR5-WR10) < (RB#5-RB#10)


Now keep in mind, every leagues scoring is different and every year is different, making my entire argument, post, and HOURS creating this post completely null and void. In any matter, I hope you've enjoyed reading this and hope it helps you in your draft. Unless you're in my league, then the above information is all lies!