NFL Week One Picks: Sunday's Matchups
Welcome back NFL! Oh, how we have missed you! The Thursday Night Season Opener is tonight so don't forget your fantasy line-ups and pick sets! Wow, I'm a little excited here... maybe I should take a fex minutes and calm down. Or I can indulge my excitement and tell you about my insights and predictions for this Sunday's games.
Indulging it is!
To see my predictions for the Thursday Night game, check out this article: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/455058-pick-em-week-1-opener-minnesota-vikings-new-orleans-saints
Enjoy!
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Denver Broncos are coming off a disappointing year, which started off strong but ended with an 0-4 stretch and a 7-9 finish. They look to begin this season on one leg as injuries have mounted. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter missed almost all of the preseason with injuries and may be ready for the opener, but the loss of Elvis Dumervil on defense is huge. They are also banged up at offensive tackle.
Without good rushing attack, the Broncos will have to beat the Jaguars at one of their strengths, which is pass defense. Kyle Orton has been good in McDaniels' system, but he will have a lot of trouble finding open receivers this season without Brandon Marshall on the field. Brandon Stokely, who didn't account for a lot of production but did score 4 touchdowns, is also gone. That leaves Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, and Brandon Lloyd as the veterans and added two rookies. One rookie, Demaryius Thomas should help out eventually, but he won't be too useful against Jacksonville as he is also hurt.
All the news surrounding the Broncos is Tebow-based so it is hard to get a good read on them. I expect them to be good defensively, but missed Dumervil's presense. On offense, they will struggle until they are healthy.
I think the Jaguars could really challenge the Broncos in this game. Maurice Jones-Drew is prepared for another big year. And Little Hercules will need to have one if the Jagaurs plan to win any games this season. David Gerrard has shown he can perform, but with a weak offensive line, he cannot be counted on to win games. Lucky for them, running the ball well is the way to beat the Broncos and MJD can do that.
The Jacksonville defense added Aaron Kampman and still have a strong secondary with Rasheed Mathis anchoring one of the corner spots. With the Broncos struggles with offensive talent. The Jags may have enough firepower on D to hold Denver to only a few points.
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
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Jeff Fisher is still one of the best coaches in the league. He may be hampered with Vince Young still learning at quarterback, but he has one of the strongest rushing attacks with Chris Johnson looking to build on his 2,000 yard season. The Oakland Raiders, whose only defensive strong point is at cornerback, are a great match up for the run heavy Titans.
It looks like Fisher may have figured out what was wrong with the Titans defense last season. I would have waged losing Keith Bullock and Kyle Vanden Bosch would hurt them, but in spite of the losses their pass defense looks improved and their rush defense looks just as stout as years past (which does not look good for the Raiders).
The Raiders might be improved on offense with a more stable quarterback in Jason Campbell, but he'll still get sacked as much as the previous quarterback making it hard for them to battle back in games. Look for them to struggle against strong running teams and keep it close against more balanced teams. Of course, when they face strong passing team, they'll also have little hope.
PICK: Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
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RED ALERT! Contract year for Tom Brady and Randy Moss! This spells trouble for all parties on the New England schedule.
Oh, wait. Brady's deal is getting done and Moss is pouting. Hmm... still really don't know what to think.
How about some stuff that we can actually predict. Wes Welker is back and ready for Week 1. That is huge for an offense designed to run, but better fit to pass. Belechick still seems to think he has enough talent for a potent rushing attack. Unfortunately, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris will be the workhorses early, but neither have completed a full season in quite a few years (2003 and 2005, respectively). Lawernce Maroney might finally be finding his role, but he won't be any more productive than Kevin Faulk. BenJarvis Green-Ellis, who may be future of the Patriots backfield, is relegated to fullback duties. Once Taylor, Morris, and Faulk call it quits, Green-Ellis and Maroney should be capable of filling the void. Of course, their success hinges on the Patriots offensive line performing a lot better.
The Patriots looked a lot better in their secondary with their new cornerback, Devin McCourty. Unfortunately, Leigh Bodden will not be starting opposite him after being placed on IR. Second-year player Darius Butler will start in his place. With a non-existent pass rusher and weak run defense, the Patriots will need to score lots of points yet again to pull out games.
The Bengals are an up and coming team that is still missing pieces to the puzzle. They have two divas playing wide receiver. They should do well enough against the Patriots. Andre Caldwell is the real threat down field, but an injury last year has him still struggling to break out.
Marvin Lewis knows his team is a pound the ground team. Cedric Benson had a lot of success last season and should continue into this year. Controlling the ball will be the way to beat the Patriots. I think Cincinnati has enough tools to get it done on the ground.
Defensively, the Bengals are looking hot. They have one of the best secondaries in the league, some young, stud linebackers, and a front four who can stop the run and get pressure on the quarterback. I think the Patriots could be in for an upset at home.
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals
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Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Ugh... what an awful game. I feel bad for all those who have to watch it.
I can't pick Delhomme. He is awful. He single-handedly killed Carolina's season last year.
The Buccs at least have... nothing. They were terrible everywhere.
At least, the Browns have Jerome Harrison and an improving offensive line.
PICK: Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
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Everyone loses to pick the Texans to finally make the leap to the playoffs. Well, they still have to find a way to beat the Colts.
If they can pressure Manning... If they can score enough points early in the game...
I'm not buying it until they actually do it.
PICK: Indianapolis Colts
Detriot Lions at Chicago Bears
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Everyone is talking themselves into the Detroit Lions this year. Well, they should be. They've add a lot of talent to the offense with Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson, and Tony Scheffler, plus their offensive line is improved.
Defensively, they have a lot of improvement too. Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch are dominating players who will change the way teams approach the Lions front four. Injuries in the secondary will hurt them in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears with the newly installed Mike Martz pass-all-over-you offense. Lucky for the Lions that Jay Cutler has yet to fully grasp the offense and likely to continue to struggle early in the season.
The Bears defense is quickly deteriorating with the aging of players still around from their Super Bowl appearance so many years ago. They hope for Julius Peppers to fix a lot of their problems, but I have my doubts as he is really in it for the money at this point in his career.
PICK: Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
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Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have always managed to win a few games. Well, that was when they could run the ball. Changes to the offensive line and injuries at running back have caused them to struggle on the ground. This is bad news for those first 4 weeks without Big Ben.
Teams will need to watch out for the Steelers defense, who look poised to return to their Super Bowl form. With a few players returning from injury, namely Troy Polamalu, they could be a dominating force and help win some games early in the season.
The Atlanta Falcons are also looking to bounce back from a below average season. Matt Ryan has his slot receiver back in Harry Douglas, who I believe will surpass Michael Jenkins on the depth chart this year. Michael Turner is healthy and he has good depth behind him. The question remains, is the offensive line good enough?
And how about their defense? They added Dunta Robinson, but can the stop the run effectively? We'll find out against the Steelers. I think it will be a close one where a mistake decides the game. Playing at Pittsburgh, I have to wager the mistake comes from the Falcons defense.
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills will be at the bottom of the league as they continue to flounder without a quarterback or offensive line. And their defense took a big hit with the release and retirement of Aaron Schobel.
Buffalo is strong in the secondary, but you can only cover for so long. The Bills defense will also have their hands full against the Miami two-headed monster at running back.
At least, the Bills have a fun new toy in CJ Spiller.
The Miami Dolphins will be in the hunt for the playoffs this year. Chad Henne is an accurate passer who just needed a more talented target. Brandon Marshall will demand double teams and open up a lot more options for the Dolphins. Brian Hartline is a solid complimentary wide out.
PICK: Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
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I like the youth on the Carolina Panthers. The defense has looked good this preseason and their secondary is always strong. If they can keep games close, then their monster running back tandem could win some games. Also, Matt Moore is better than people give him credit. His preseason was lousy, but that is because he has mediocre WRs behind Steve Smith, who didn't play at all due to a broken arm.
The New York Giants were a team going the wrong direction last season. A lot of that is due to having a tough schedule and a slew of injuries. They start off this season in the same boat with better NFC East rivals (well, maybe not the Eagles...) and a bunch of injuries on defense. Their running back situation may have sorted itself out this preseason as Brandon Jacobs is running like a walrus while Ahmad Bradshaw is doing his best Barry Sanders impersonation. The problem is that these guys are fragile, but who knows?
These two teams met towards the end of last season and the Panthers stomped all over the Giants. Julius Peppers was a big reason why. Too bad he left for Chicago. This season I see both teams as evenly matched. Each with a struggling defense and a lukewarm offense that can be explosive when healthy. I like the Giants to seek revenge by pulling out all the stops on the young Carolina defense.
PICK: New York Giants
Green Bay at Philadelphia Eagles
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The Philadelphia Eagles also have a youth movement going on. They are still built to run Andy Reid's pass-first-second-and-third offense, but losing all their veteran leaders in a two year span has got to hurt. Last season their defense suffered after the departure of Brian Dawkins. Now they lose Will Witherspoon, Sheldon Brown, and Chris Gocong? At least they have some pass defense with Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs, but they are gonna get worn out tackling.
On offense, they lose Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Who cares if they are old and brittle? They get you to the post season! Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy have giant shoes to fill. Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers will not be kind to them.
Now, the Packers are doing everything right building a winning system. They have all the skill players to fit their system on offense (could use some depth at RB still) and have filled in their 3-4 defense nicely. Ryan Grant will run hard on the Eagles to wear them out, then Aaron Rodgers will finish them off with some big 2nd and 3rd quarter touchdown drives.
PICK: Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
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The St. Louis Rams will be dreadful. Steven Jackson will be the only reason they score any points or win any games. They'll be lucky if Sam Bradford lives through the season. I know they want him to get experience under center and develop quickly (and put fans in the seats), but look at Stafford's first season. He got creamed and injured. Luckily, he has bounced back fine, but not all injuries are created equal. If your team's offensive line stinks, then it is retarded to put your franchise's future on the field.
The Arizona Cardinals may have the inaccurate Derek Anderson at quarterback, but at least they don't have the still-riding-my-college-playing-days Matt Leinart to hold them back. Anderson will commit to the team and inspire a winning attitude. He may play terrible, but the team will stand behind him.
The Cardinals have another bright spot in what was looking to be a year of disaster. Their defense gets better every year and added a few veterans. They did lose Karlos Dansby, but I think they can fill his shoes well enough to compete for the top of their division.
PICK: Arizona Cardinals
San Fransisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
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Alex Smith may hold the San Fransisco 49ers back in some games, but this will not be one of them. The division rival Seattle Seahawks are weak on rush defense, which means Frank Gore will show is horns and gore the Seahawks for a ton of yards and possibly a couple scores.
The Seahawks will struggle to move the ball against a top notch Niner defense making this one of the easiest picks for Sunday.
PICK: San Fransisco 49ers
Sunday Night Match-Up: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
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There is a lot of action on the Dallas Cowboys bandwagon, but what have they done to improve? Dez Bryant? Won't help them in Week 1. So let's think back to last season and remember that this Cowboys team only became relevant, because of the emergence of Miles Austin. This season, teams will be prepared for him. Don't forget that the NFC East had a very off year last year.
The Redskins are always a tough match-up at home for their division rivals. Now they look like a team ready to break out (If they had any wide receivers. Wait, McNabb has found ways to win with Todd Pinkston and James Thrash). They had a similar look last season, too, but Jason Campbell, poor receivers, and perhaps a coaching-management conflict got in the way. This season, they just have poor receivers.
I do not expect fireworks in the game. Well, maybe the pregame festivities. But neither team will be lighting up the score board (much like the Saints-Vikings game last night). Both teams have talented players on defense who will harrass the opposing offensive line and quarterback while maintaining tight coverage.
This game will likely come down to the running and kicking games. Can Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson run like years past? Will Marion Barber and Felix Jones be able to find room to run? I don't like any of the 4 too much in this game. The unknown kickers don't inspire any confidence either.
So what can we deduce from this? Let's look at the games last season. 7-6 and 17-0 in favor of Dallas. I don't see it much different.
PICK: Dallas Cowboys
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