10 Biggest Questions and Predictions: Atlanta Vs. Pittsburgh
On Sept. 12 the Atlanta Falcons head into Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers and their Terrible Towel-waving fans. This marks what could be the beginning of a very special season for the Dirty Birds, and we're going to take a look at what promises to be a great game between two teams with playoff aspirations in 2010.
That said, here are ten questions and answers that both teams heading into their showdown on Sunday:
Question 1) How Will Matt Ryan Respond To LeBeau's 3-4 Defense?
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Throughout the preseason QB Matt Ryan faced three teams that feature the 3-4 defense, and the results were quite pedestrian. Ryan completed only 53% of his passes with one TD and one INT. He faces the same type of defense in Week 1 as he leads the Falcons offense against Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau and the Steelers' 3-4 defensive alignment. One of Matt Ryan's greatest strengths is to get rid of the ball quickly, which will be a plus against a blitzing defense that the Steelers present.
Prediction: Ryan will do well as long as he doesn't have to throw more than 25 times. Since Coach Mike Smith is looking for a balanced offense, expect Ryan to look early and often for Tight End Tony Gonzalez to keep the Steelers defense on their toes. Since All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will be roaming the secondary and coming in to stop the run, Ryan will have a chance to strike deep if they are pressing. I also predict that Ryan will hit Harry Douglas on third down slant routes late in the game.
Dungeon says: Ryan 14-25, 202 yards passing, 1TD, 1INT
Question 2) How Will Atlanta's Defense Contain Dennis Dixon?
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Former Oregon QB Dennis Dixon has been tabbed the starter by Steelers coach Mike Tomlin while Ben Roethlisberger is serving a four-game suspension and backup QB Byron Leftwich is recovering from injury. A lot of people think Atlanta caught a break by facing the third string quarterback, but I think that they are underestimating Dixon's talent. Atlanta's defense better be ready to face the multi-talented threat that Dixon brings to the table.
Prediction: It may have been better for Atlanta's young defense to face the far less mobile Leftwich than Dixon, who can run when plays break down. The Falcons' linebacking corps of Stephen Nicholas, Curtis Lofton, and rookie Sean Weatherspoon will have to play spy on Dixon to make sure he doesn't get out of the pocket to create first downs with his legs, and instead force him to pass the ball. Dixon hasn't had the best postseason, but will make life difficult in the beginning as Atlanta will adjust to him later in the game.
Dungeon says: Dixon will have a solid effort at home, but will throw more INTs than TDs in this one. 10-18, 162 yards passing, one TD, 2 INT, 28 yards rushing.
Question 3) Who Will Win The Primary Matchup: Polamalu Or Gonzalez?
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Any discussion of Pittsburgh's defense must start with the presence of Safety Troy Polamalu. When he is healthy, the Steelers defense become a force to be reckoned with in both the passing and running game. Since Roethlisberger is out the Steelers will rely more on their defense to win the game, and Atlanta must know where TP is on the field at all times.
This is where Tight End Tony Gonzalez must be able to help Atlanta move the chains in the passing game. TG is Ryan's safety blanket, especially in the red zone, where Polamalu may be pressed on him and force Ryan to look elsewhere for conversions. Whomever wins this matchup will turn the favor in their team's direction.
Prediction: Even though Gonzalez will make history by becoming the first tight end to have 1,000 catches in his career, don't expect him to do much else in this game. Polamalu will ensure that Atlanta's aerial game never gets into a rhythm at home.
Dungeon Says: Gonzalez - 3 catches 32 yards
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Question 4) How Will Atlanta's Defensive Line Contain Mendenhall?
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Mendenhall is now the man in Pittsburgh in regards to the running game. Now that Big Ben is on the sidelines it will be up to the third-year back to carry the offense even more. He possesses the explosiveness needed to keep the Steelers offense moving.
As for the Falcons, they will have their starting defensive line (Abraham, Biermann, Jerry, Sidbury) healthy and prepared for this game. During the one time they all played together in the preseason they held the talented running duo of Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams to only 14 yards on 12 carries.
Prediction: Mendenhall will break a couple of runs when Atlanta is expecting Dixon to pass, but I don't expect the Falcons' D-line to break against an injury-plagued Steelers' offensive line. The key will be when Pittsburgh brings in Mewelde Moore and rookie RB Jonathan Dwyer for a change of pace.
Mendenhall stats: 22 rushes, 89 yards 1TD
Question 5) Will The Burner Get Going Against The 3-4 Defense?
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As Turner goes, so does the Falcons. He has thrived when facing elite defenses, and the 3-4 defense of Pittsburgh will be quite the challenge. Led by Casey Hampton and James Harrison, the Steelers make life difficult for opposing backs, and they will be pumped during their first game of the season at home.
Prediction: If the improving offensive line of the Falcons can give Turner even the slightest of an opening, Turner will get into the open field and create problems for the Steelers. I expect that to happen Sunday. Also, don't be surprised to see Jason Snelling on third and short situations.
Dungeon says: Turner rushes 18 times for 97 yards and 1TD
Question 6) Who Will Cover Mike Wallace?
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Mike Wallace came on the scene last year when he caught the game-winning catch against Green Bay last December. He is going to be the number two wideout with Santonio Holmes now in New York. Since CB Dunta Robinson will be busy covering Hines Ward, it will be interesting to see if they switch him onto the taller Wallace and take their chances with the veteran Ward.
Prediction: If Brian Williams is healthy expect him to start alongside Robinson to cover Wallace. He will get a lot of looks, especially on third down when Dixon needs an outlet. If Atlanta can keep Wallace in front of their secondary it will bode well for the Falcons.
Dungeon Says: Wallace 5 catches 61 yards
Question 7) Will Roddy White Have a Good Game?
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Roddy White will need to step his game up with fellow receiver Michael Jenkins on the shelf recovering from shoulder surgery. If Gonzalez is being covered, Atlanta's biggest strength will be having White go up against the Pittsburgh corners, who are small yet physical.
Prediction: White will be doubled by the Steelers secondary, which will open up opportunities underneath for Harry Douglas. I think that White will get a few catches but will not be able to get many yards after the catch.
Dungeon says: White - 6 catches 51 yards
Question 8) How Will The Falcons Score In The Red Zone?
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Atlanta did not play well in the preseason when they crossed the 50 yard line, totaling only 1 TD and 5 Field Goals with the first string unit. They face a physical Steelers defense that gets even tougher the closer teams get to the end zone.
Prediction: Although Gonzalez won't make a lot of catches, he has to be Atlanta's number one option when they cross the 20 since they won't get a lot of chances on Sunday. If Ryan decides to throw fade routes, expect Brian Finneran's number to be called against the smallish Pittsburgh cornerbacks. Snelling will also be a factor close to the goal line. Ryan may not be as accurate as he wants to be in this game, but Atlanta will reach the end zone twice in this contest.
Question 9) What Is The Biggest X-Factor in The Game?
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Heinz Field can be death for kickers as the winds seem to have a mind of their own, especially in big situations. Jeff Reed is used to the environment, but it remains to be seen if Falcons veteran kicker Matt Bryant will be able to handle the same pressure. Since it's expected to be warm on Sunday the winds may not be as much of a factor.
Prediction: I expect Atlanta to rely more on their punting unit, led by Michael Koenen to pin back the Steelers and force the inexperienced Dixon to get them beyond the 20 yard line. The Falcons' kicking game will be able to make the kicks when necessary.
Question 10) Who Will Win This Game?
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Prediction: A lot of people are thinking this will be a low scoring, grind it out affair, especially since Big Ben isn't playing. I have to disagree. Atlanta has shown that they can put up points on the road with their balanced attack, and Dixon has enough weapons in Mendenhall, Wallace, and Ward to reach the end zone.
The key will be Atlanta's ability to make plays in the passing game, and for the Steelers to minimize Dixon's mistakes, even as they are playing at home. In games like this, it comes down to which QBs make the fewest mistakes. Ryan will win this battle, and Atlanta will win a close affair on the road.
Dungeon says: Atlanta 23, Pittsburgh 17
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