Aces High. 2010 Week 1 NFL Picks (Gambler's Preview, Picks, And Predictions)

I have titled my weekly picks in honor of Sam 'Ace' Rothstein's character from the movie Casino.  In the film, prior to managing the Tangiers, Robert DeNiro's character was known to be the best football handicapper in the country. 

Every week I will have five bets that I will suggest to you the reader.  I use a combination of historical trends, statistical analysis, injuries, venue to determine if there is an advantage in any of the lines.  I will generally handicap using the standard lines; however, I also use the money line when the opportunity is right. 

ACES RULES:

1.) No parlays.  Mathematically, with the assumption of 50/50 odds per game, one has a 4-1 (1/2 * 1/2) chance of hitting a two game parlay that pays 3-1.  No thank you.

2.) No over/unders.  This is a coin toss of a bet where you can not gain an advantage.

3.) Never bet too many games.  The more games you bet the more likely you are to end up right at the 50% success rate.  You will spend your entire year losing 'juice'. 

I order the slide show from 1-5 stars.  The higher the star rating the higher the confidence.  Good luck.

Key words:  NFL, betting lines, week 1, spreads, ATS, locks, odds

One Star Bengals at Patriots -4.5

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 02: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots throws a first quarter pass against the New York Giants on September 2, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Healthy Tom Brady with a chip on his shoulder at home.  I believe that last year's Bengals were a mirage.  Very subjective for this pick, but early in the season data points are not available.  Some factors to consider are: Randy Moss feeling under appreciated, Edelmann's ankle injury, Welker coming off a knee, but those are not enough for me not to lay the 4 and a hook.

Two Star Packers at Eagles +2.5

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

GREEN BAY, WI - AUGUST 26: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers drops back to look for a receiver as teammate Daryn Colledge #73 looks to block against the Indianapolis Colts during a preseason game at Lambeau Field on August 26, 2010 in Green Bay,

I strongly believe that the Packers may come out of the NFC this year.  They are well equipped on both sides of the ball with one of the best QB's in all of football.  The Eagles on the other hand had a changing at the helm losing McNabb and replacing him with Kolb.  Andy Reid will have the boys competitive this year like he does every other, but I feel they are too young to compete with the elite teams in the NFL.  Lay the 2 and a half and coast to a 17 point victory on this one.

The reason this game is not rated higher is a statistical trend.  Last year, GB was 11-4-1 ATS.  That is a very high rate and generally results in regression the following season.

Three Star Niners at Seahawk +2.5

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 28: Patrick Willis #52 of the San Francisco 49ers sacks Jason Campbell #8 of the Oakland Raiders during an NFL preseason game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on August 28, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Gett

Once again we have to be weary about the Niners 10-4-2 record ATS last year, but subjectively I can not let this game go.  The Niners are the favorite to win that division easily.  They have the best linebacker in football (Patrick Willis) leading one of the best defenses in the league.  Crabtree, Davis, Gore, Ginn, should offer enough firepower to put this game out of reach before the 4th quarter.   On the other side of the field, the Caroll led Seahawks have question marks all over the place.  The Seahawks are just too young, too old, or too unproven at key positions to compete with the Niners.

Four Star Chargers at Chiefs +4.5

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO - AUGUST 21: Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers throws a pass during the pre-season NFL football game against Dallas Cowboys at Qualcomm Stadium on August 21, 2010 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Gett

Even without Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson the Chargers are still the superior team in this match up. They outscored the Chiefs by 59 points last year in their two match ups and I don't forecast the young Chiefs coming out prepared to compete with the projected divisional champion.  The line has shifted 2.5 points in San Diego's favor to compensate for the two stars unavailable.  Give the 4.5 and watch for the blow out by halftime.

Five Star Colts at Texans + 2.5

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

GREEN BAY, WI - AUGUST 26: Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers during a preseason game at Lambeau Field on August 26, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Colts 59-24. (Photo by Jonath

The Colts come out and win in the beginning of the season.  The Manning led Colts always seem to come out of the gates 7-0.  They are a well oiled machine that will easily cover the 2.5 on the road to open the season.  The Texans, conversely never seem to have their sh*t in place to begin a season.  They have some talents at key positions (Schaub, A. Johnson, Ryans, M. Williams) but never seem to mold all of the components together to make a serious run at the division .