NFL Picks Week 1: How To Pick 10 Winners Your First Week

It's week one of the NFL season. Doesn't it just feel good to say that?

Football is back and people want to know who's going to win and who's going to lose? If your office pool is like most, you're probably picking winners straight up without the spread.

That's always an agonizing time trying to decide who you're going to roll with each week but to help lighten the load I've picked every game. There's six I'm torn on, but I gave you 10 sure locks to help you in your quest for dominance.

With the locks you get my rating on a scale of 1-10 on the chances of a blowout and on the others you get why I think the favorite is in trouble.

If you disagree, air it out in the comments and maybe you can sway me one way or the other.

Non-Lock Winner No. 1: New Orleans Over Minnesota

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NEW ORLEANS - AUGUST 27: Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints in action against the San Diego Chargers at the Louisiana Superdome on August 27, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

The opening game and a rematch of the NFC Championship game, the Saints are coming in as the favorites and the defending Super Bowl champions.

Brett Favre is returning under center for the Vikings and is trying to get Minnesota over the hump after a disappointing finish to last season.

Why the favorite is in trouble: There's always a chance that the Super Bowl hangover could sneak up and grab the Saints. It's always harder to defend a title than it is to win it for the first time.

There's a reason why we don't see many repeat champions and New Orleans is going to find that out this year.

Non-Lock Winner No. 2: Pittsburgh Over Atlanta

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PITTSBURGH - SEPTEMBER 02: Dennis Dixon #10 of the Pittsburgh Steelers drops back to pass against the Carolina Panthers after Byron Leftwich left with an injury during the preseason game on September 2, 2010 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (

It's game one for the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger as they host Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons at Heinz Field.

It'll be interesting to see how Pittsburgh plays without Big Ben and having Dennis Dixon under center for them. Atlanta is looking to rebound from a middle of the road season and in my opinion, a step back for Matt Ryan at the quarterback position.

Why the favorite is in trouble: Atlanta comes into the game as the favorite but I think people are underestimating Dixon. He's looked good in his time on the field and gives the Steelers a better chance to win than Byron Leftwich did.

I think Dixon is going to open things up for Pittsburgh and lead them to victory.

Non-Lock Winner No. 3: Cleveland Over Tampa Bay

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CLEVELAND - SEPTEMBER 2: James Davis #28 of the Cleveland Browns makes a cut up field against the Chicago Bears during the preseason game on September 2, 2010 at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns defeated the Bears 13-10. (Photo by J

It's our first meh matchup of the season. Trust me, no one bought the Sunday Ticket package on DirectTV to watch this game.

This is going to be a boring, boring game between two awful teams.

Why the favorite is in trouble: Tampa Bay is coming to the game as the favorite and maybe that's because Cleveland's rookie running back Montario Hardesty blew his knee out and is lost for the season.

I think Tampa's in trouble here because they are poorly coached. I think Raheem Morris is in way over his head as a pro coach and will be exposed as such on a week in, week out basis starting this Sunday.

Non-Lock Winner No. 4: Denver Over Jacksonville

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DENVER - AUGUST 29: Quarterback Kyle Orton #8 of the Denver Broncos delivers a pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during preseason NFL action at INVESCO Field at Mile High on August 29, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Another game that doesn't feature a playoff team from last year.

The Broncos will travel east to play Jacksonville as both teams try and take the next step and make the playoffs. Will we see Tim Tebow at all? Only time will tell but I'll bet on seeing him in some way, shape or form on Sunday.

Why the favorite is in trouble: It's all about Jack Del Rio. I think he's an awful coach who should have been fired a while ago. His record shows that he's been nothing more than a middle of the road coach.

Since the Jaguars have to tarp up seats just to avoid a blackout, maybe Jacksonville should try putting a winning ballclub on the field to put butts in the seats.

We all know they won't this year anyway.

Non-Lock Winner No. 2 Arizona Over St. Louis

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GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 02: Runningback Beanie Wells #26 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football against Chris Wilson #95 and Kevin Barnes #25 of the Washington Redskins during the first quarter of the preseason NFL game at the University of Phoeni

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend just because Arizona is moving on from the Kurt Warner era.

The Cardinals had one of the best offenses in football under Warner and are now transitioning to Derek Anderson. Ouch.

Either way, Anderson will have some weapons at his disposal and it'll be interesting to see how he does with them.

Why the favorite is in trouble: Because we have no idea how Derek Anderson is going to play. He could be good, or he could be atrocious, you know, how he was for most of his time in Cleveland. I wouldn't have high hopes this year if I were a Cardinals fan.

Non-Lock Winner No. 1: Cincinnati Over New England

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INDIANAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 02: Chad Ochocinco #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals talks with teammates during the NFL preseason game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 2, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty I

It's the first game of the Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens pairing in Cincy and it'll be interesting to see how they do against the mainstays of the NFL elite, the New England Patriots.

Contract problems have surrounded the Patriots and while they say everything is fine, I feel like it has to weigh on them somewhat, especially with Tom Brady suffering a knee injury in the opener two years ago.

Why the favorite is in trouble: The Patriots are the favorite and I'm not sure why. I don't like their defense at all. It has looked old and slow in the preseason and they're not getting any younger.

Also, Wes Welker is coming off of a bad knee injury and I'm not sure how affective he's going to be for the Pats.

Lock No. 10: Dallas Over Washington

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HOUSTON - AUGUST 28: Quarterback Tony Romo #9 of the Dallas Cowboys calls out a play at the line of scrimmage during a football game against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium on August 28, 2010 in Houston, Texas. Houston won 23-7. (Photo by Bob Levey/

One of the NFC favorites this year, the Dallas Cowboys will take on Donovan McNabb and the new-look Washington Redskins to start to season.

I like Dallas for a couple of reasons. One, McNabb is playing on a bad ankle after missing time while trying to adjust to a new system. Two, it's going to take time for Mike Shanahan to get this team where it wants to be and I don't think it happens week one.

Finally, with the controversy with Albert Haynesworth around the team his presence will be missed in the middle, if he doesn't play as has been rumored.

Blowout Possiblity: 5 - I can't go any higher than that. The Cowboys have had issues on the offensive line and it's a rivalry game. This should be a close game but Dallas will emerge victorious in the end.

Lock No. 9: Green Bay Over Philadelphia

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GREEN BAY, WI - AUGUST 26: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers turns to hand off to Ryan Grant #25 against the Indianapolis Colts during a preseason game at Lambeau Field on August 26, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Colts 59

Let's be honest, Green Bay's offense looked spectacular in the preseason. They totally decimated the Colts and while yes, it is the preseason, you can't completely discount it.

I think the Packers are going to the Super Bowl and they're going to start by beating the Eagles, who are trying to get the Kevin Kolb era going. Trading McNabb was a big mistake and I think this Kolb experiment is going to blow up in the Eagles' faces.

Blowout Possibility: 7 - If Kolb plays as bad as he did in the preseason facing vanilla defenses it could be a long, long day for Eagles fans.

They should be used to it though, they'll be fine -- after they try and run Kolb and Andy Reid out of town.

Lock No. 8: Baltimore Over NY Jets

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BALTIMORE - AUGUST 28: Joe Flacco #5 of the Baltimore Ravens runs the ball against the New York Giants at M&T Bank Stadium on August 28, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens lead the Giants 17-3. (Photo by Larry French/Getty Images)

To be honest, I don't know why people are sleeping on Baltimore.

They have a great defense as always and now they have a ton of weapons at Joe Flacco's disposal. There's Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and TJ Houshmandzadeh out wide and Ray Rice in the backfield.

I think this team is going to the Super Bowl and they're kind of flying under the radar coming into the season.

Blowout Possiblity: 3 - It's certainly possible if Baltimore can really slow down New York's offense, but with the Jets defense being as strong as it is, this game may turn into a slugfest. And isn't that the way we want it to be? Two defensive monsters just beating each other down for 60 minutes?

Lock No. 7: Indianapolis at Houston

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GREEN BAY, WI - AUGUST 26: Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts drops back to pass against the Green Bay Packers during a preseason game at Lambeau Field on August 26, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Colts 59-24. (Photo by

Why shouldn't you or anyone else take the Colts this week?

Indianapolis is 15-1 all time against Houston and I don't see that changing. The Texans always find hilarious new ways to lose to the Colts and I'm sure they'll find another one this weekend.

I'm not believing all of the Texans' hype. This happens every time they sniff .500. I don't care if they finally had a winning season. The playoffs aren't happening this year and their fans should just accept that.

Blowout Possibility: 3 - The Texans always play the Colts close but choke in the end so I'm looking for another letdown by Houston this weekend. Perhaps a Matt Schaub fumble on a kneeldown? It's the only way it could get worse for Texans fans.

Lock No. 6: San Diego Over Kansas City

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NEW ORLEANS - AUGUST 27: Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers in action against the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome on August 27, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

There's a lot surrounding San Diego heading into this season. They're moving on without LaDainian Tomlinson but are trying to while Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil are holding out over contract disputes.

The Chargers have always been one of those teams that have gotten close but not close enough and it'll be hard to get over the hump without those two players. It helps that they're playing Kansas City, who's trying to work in two new coordinators in Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel too.

Blowout Possiblity: 8 - It's the Chiefs. I mean, really. I know the Chargers will be a little short-handed, but it's the Chiefs. I think this one could get out of hand early.

Lock No. 5: San Francisco Over Seattle

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OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 28: Alex Smith #11 of the San Francisco 49ers passes against Tommy Kelly #93 of the Oakland Raiders during an NFL preseason game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on August 28, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/G

Another media darling headed into the season, San Francisco will start out against division foe Seattle in week one.

I like the 49ers but I'm not buying them as a solid contender just yet. They're well coached and have plenty of weapons on offense but I just don't like Alex Smith as a pro quarterback.

You know San Francisco just has to be kicking itself about passing on Aaron Rodgers for Smith a few years back.

Blowout Possibility: 6 - While I don't love San Fran, it's Seattle. Seattle is just...I don't know where Seattle's going as an organization but I can tell you one thing, it's certainly not up.

Pete Carroll's debut could be an ugly one.

Lock No. 4: Miami Over Buffalo

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - AUGUST 21: Ronnie Brown #23 of the Miami Dolphins attempts to run past Sean Considine #37 of the Jacksonville Jaguars during the preseason game at EverBank Field on August 21, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Get

Miami is looking to make a splash in a very crowded AFC East.

The Dolphins are going to have to emerge from the shadows of the Jets and the Patriots to try and make a run at the playoffs and they certainly have the tools to do so. Chad Henne has looked good in the preseason and with Brandon Marshall on the roster, he has a legit target to throw to.

Helping their status as a lock is the fact that they are playing the Bills, who may be the worst team in football, but if not, one of them. It's sad how a proud franchise like the Buffalo has been reduced to what they are.

Those fans deserve better.

Blowout Possiblity: 8 - If Chad Henne finds the seams in that Bills defense, it will be lights out early. I'm sure that the Dolphins will confuse Buffalo more than once with the Wildcat.

Lock No. 3: Chicago Over Detroit

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CHICAGO - AUGUST 28: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears looks for a receiver against the Arizona Cardinals during a preseason game at Soldier Field on August 28, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cardinals defeated the Bears 14-9. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/G

This could be the year that Jay Cutler and the Bears become an offensive threat.

With the addition of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, the cannon-armed Cutler could finally breakthrough in Chicago and unleash his full potential. He'll of course have to stop throwing the red zone interceptions that plagued his year last season.

I like Detroit a lot, don't get me wrong. I think Matthew Stafford is going to be a solid player for the Lions but this just isn't their week.

Blowout Possibility: 4 - I like Chicago to win, but if Cutler gets sloppy it's going to be a close game. And if Cutler starts throwing those picks, Bears fans' patience has already run thin and it could be an ugly reaction.

Lock No. 2: Tennessee Over Oakland

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SEATTLE - AUGUST 14: Running back Chris Johnson #28 of the Tennessee Titans rushes against Aaron Curry #59 during the preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks at Qwest Field on August 14, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Imag

The Titans are coming into 2010 riding a hot streak that saw the Titans go 8-2 down the stretch to finish at 8-8.

The resurgence was led by Vince Young and all pro running back Chris Johnson who had a monster year and rushed for over 2,000 yards. Of course, Johnson won't accomplish that feat, despite his desire to rush for 2,500 yards this year.

Tennessee is suspect on defense, especially at corner and linebacker and those areas will have to be addressed at some point but I still like them over the Raiders on Sunday.

Blowout Possibility: 2 - Jeff Fisher's teams rarely blowout anybody. Ever. I'd look for the Raiders to hang around for a while before the Titans put them away in the second half.

Lock No. 1: NY Giants Over Carolina

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BALTIMORE - AUGUST 28: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants passes against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on August 28, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens lead the Giants at halftime 17-3. (Photo by Larry French/Getty Images)

The Giants are looking to rebound after missing the playoffs last year and well Carolina is just looking for some answers at the quarterback position.

After letting Jake Delhomme go, the Panthers are just torn between Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen and to be honest, neither is the answer and it will cost John Fox his job at some point. You just can't let him go on like this and not get results.

I like the Giants this year despite having some injury issues on the offensive line. The defense is going to cause problems for the Panthers all day long and seal up some of those running lanes for Carolina's two-headed monster at running back.

Blowout Possibility: 6 - Carolina may be able to slow the game down with the run early on but of the Giants get ahead and force the Panthers to throw it could get ugly. I don't have faith in Matt Moore to successfully sling the ball around the field all day unscathed.