Fantasy Football Week One: Breaking Down the Implications of The Season Openers
You've live-drafted, you've clicked and dragged to set your line-up, and maybe even made trades.
Now, it's time for Week 1 of fantasy football action to get underway.
Each week, I'll be covering some of the key match-ups and notes that are relevant to fantasy leagues. Sorry in advance, fans of Tampa Bay. Maybe next year.
I'll make some claims, a few predictions, and probably stir up the pot a little in the process. I'll even throw in a Waiver Wire Wonder, as well as some players I think will surprise and disappoint.
Also, since some of you have a very high interest in Chris Johnson, I'll make it a point to touch base on the subject each week and give you my thoughts on his upcoming match-up.
Here's the run-down of the relevant for Week 1.
Adrian Peterson Vs. New Orleans Saints Rush Defense
1 of 10
The New Orleans Saints ranked 21st in the league in rush defense last year, and gave up 19 touchdowns to opposing running backs in the regular season. They gave up a whopping 122 yards and three touchdowns to Adrian Peterson in the NFC Championship game last year.
I don't think he'll fumble three times again, so I'd look for Peterson to put up big numbers yet again unless the Saints can find a way to stop him.
Fearless prediction: 114 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 receptions, 21 yards.
In Case There Was Any Doubt...Start Peyton Manning Vs Texans
2 of 10
In 16 career games against the Houston Texans, 15 wins, Peyton Manning has completed 71.5 percent of his throws for 4,421 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for a rating of 112.4. With stats like that, I bet Manning wishes he could play the Texans even more often than twice per year.
Last year, he went 61-for-85 for 562 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Texans pass defense added rookie Kareem Jackson, but didn't do themselves any favors by letting Dunta Robinson walk in free agency. Also, Brian Cushing will be out for this game.
Prediction: 30-for-40, 300 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception
Donovan McNabb Will Likely Falter Vs. Dallas Cowboys
3 of 10
For those in the Nation's Capital that believe McNabb could be the savior of their franchise, you may be right in the long run. We're not here to question the long run, though. I'm trying to get you a win in your fantasy league this week.
With that in mind, avoid McNabb like the plague.
Not only is he almost completely devoid of top-talent targets (Devin Thomas, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and Fred Davis all look good), but he put up pedestrian numbers against Dallas last year with much better talent in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, and LeSean McCoy.
Mike Shanahan loves to run the ball aggressively and frequently, which will open up play action for McNabb but will also take the ball out of his hands.
Prediction: 15-for-22, 170 yards, one touchdown, one interception, two rushes for 10 yards
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Can CJ Spiller Keep It Moving?
4 of 10
Earlier this week, Bills head coach Chan Gailey named CJ Spiller the starting running back. One would think his utter dominance in the preseason would have sufficed, and that Chan Gailey could just walk up there and just play a tape of his performance to suffice as the announcement.
It wasn't just the numbers, but the way he put them up, single-handedly carving through the Colts and Bengals' defenses even when blockers were nowhere to be found.
His impressive preseason could become a disappointing afterthought, though, as the Bills still feature a shaky offensive line and a quarterback that currently fits right in with Jason Campbell on the list of guys who just can't put it together.
The Dolphins are still a mystery on defense, after shipping off two talented vets and bringing in two promising prospects in the draft in their place.
Prediction: 100 rushing yards, one touchdown
Ryan Mathews Will Have a Huge Game Against The Chiefs
5 of 10
The Chiefs have done nothing to revamp their run defense this offseason, and have historically been awful against San Diego specifically. 713 yards in the past six meetings, to be exact.
"Baby LT" figures to be an early contributor to the annual onslaught on Monday Night Football, opening up play action for Philip Rivers and acting as big-time weapon and central piece of the Chargers offense with Vincent Jackson out of the equation.
Prediction: 127 rushing yards, two touchdowns, two receptions, 23 yards
Stick With Mendenhall, Avoid Other Steelers
6 of 10
Anyone wearing a Steelers uniform will also be wearing a cloak of uncertainty in Week 1's game against the Falcons. With the pigskin in Dennis Dixon's tender hands, Pittsburgh's feature back looks like the only sure thing. Even he is a question mark going up against the Falcons, who are underrated in run defense, allowing 1,711 yards and 10 touchdowns to opposing backs in 2010.
If you have better options, it would be wise to bench guys like Hines Ward and Heath Miller at least until we see how the Steelers offense gels with Dixon at the helm.
Waiver Wire Wonder: Pierre Garcon
7 of 10
You'll probably hear me say this a lot over the course of the season: don't bench your studs unless it looks really, really, really bleak.
That goes especially so for Week 1. Trust your draft, and go with who you picked because chances are you'll regret it if you don't.
That being said, I plan on making the Waiver Wire Wonder part of my weekly segment, where I cover one player I think will do well if you're in need of someone for purposes of a bye week or an injury.
Pierre Garcon matches up against the weak Texans pass defense. As mentioned earlier, with Peyton Manning throwing the ball against the Texans defense, anyone is a candidate for a breakout game. If you accidentally auto-drafted Vincent Jackson or Santonio Holmes as one of your starting receivers, go with Garcon in Week 1.
Prediction: four receptions, 56 yards, one touchdown
Surprise of The Week: Jerome Harrison
8 of 10
From second-fiddle to man in the middle, Jerome Harrison has his place as the no. 1 back in Cleveland after Montario Hardesty went down with an injury.
The Browns have a respectable interior offensive line, which goes up against the all-rookie defensive tackle tandem of Gerald McCoy and Brian Price.
Jake Delhomme won't be winning the Browns any games anytime soon, so expect the Browns to run the ball with authority and consistency.
Prediction: 150 rushing yards, two touchdowns
Disappointment of The Week: Joe Flacco
9 of 10
The Ravens army had a tank-laden attack last year, crushing its opponents as it rolled through. When that didn't prove to be enough to keep up with the high-octane Colts in the playoffs, they called in an aerial strike by adding Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh. The offense looks unstoppable.
Lest we forget, they face the Jets defense that relies on its superior defense that blitzes the quarterback and forces them into hurried throws and mistakes. I picked the Ravens to win this game, but that will happen in spite of Flacco, as I think Mark Sanchez could have an even worse game against the Ravens.
Prediction: 15-for-30, 130 yards, one interception
Chasing 2,000: Vs. Oakland Raiders
10 of 10
Any other year, a Week 1 match-up against the Oakland Raiders would have fantasy owners seeing dollar signs. Unfortunately for Johnson owners, a surprisingly competent offseason full of smart choices on draft day and in free agency has brought a ray of hope to the Black Hole.
Among those decisions were three key ones to Johnson's Week 1 success: franchise tagging Richard Seymour, drafting LaMarr Houston, and signing John Henderson. The unit hasn't played as a whole in the regular season, but certainly has the talent to come together quickly.
Still, Johnson did some respectable work against formidable opponents last year, and in his first match-up, I expect nothing short of the ordinary from Johnson.
Prediction: 132 yards, two touchdowns, two receptions, 16 yards
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