NFL Picks Week 1: The Top Knockout Selections for Week 1 and Beyond
So, the first games of the NFL season start tomorrow night. A few weeks back, you entered a knockout pool, not sure what it was, or how it worked, and now you're panicking. Bob from Accounting wants your pick, and you have no idea what to do.
For those who don't know, a knockout pool is a system in which you pick one team every week that you think will win their game.
But, there's a catch: Once a team is selected, they cannot be played again.
If you're right, you move on. If you're wrong, you're done.
So, you're stuck. When should you play your sure things? When should you go out on a limb? We're bringing you a comprehensive guide of who to pick, when to pick them, who could give you value, and who is a danger to themselves and your standing in the pool.
The Dregs
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These are the teams you should avoid under any and all circumstances. They will kill your chances faster than you can say "Jake Delhomme".
The St. Louis Rams: Stephen Jackson aside, there's nothing of value here yet. Stay away.
The Cleveland Browns: Pretty much the same as the Rams, but without the hope.
The Seattle Seahawks: A royal mess right now. Stay far, far away.
The Kansas City Chiefs: Next year, you could pick them. But this year? No.
The Buffalo Bills: Fighting the Rams to be the worst team in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Check back in a couple seasons.
The Expendables
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These are the teams that didn't get selected, but could still win you a week if you play them right.
Miami Dolphins: A tough schedule, and an unproven quarterback mean they stay home a lot. But, when they play Buffalo, feel free to use them.
Oakland Raiders: Not sure about them yet. They looked decent in preseason, but they haven't had a winning record since 2003. Play them with caution.
Philadelphia Eagles: See Dolphins, Miami.
Jacksonville Jaguars: A rough schedule, plus an solid but not spectacular team, equals trouble.
Washington Redskins: A little too much drama, and not enough wideout talent to merit a play.
Arizona Cardinals: If it was Kurt Warner, not Derek Anderson manning the helm, they'd get picked. But it is Anderson throwing the ball, so buyer beware.
Detroit Lions: They'll win more than you think they will. But their defense is bad enough to make them a dangerous pick.
New York Giants: There are better picks a lot of weeks, but there are also worse ones.
Chicago Bears: They'll win some games. But not safely.
Week 1: San Diego Chargers Over Kansas City Chiefs
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Even with all the questions on both sides of the ball coming into the season for the Bolts, they're still a much better team than Kansas City are at this point. It could be tight, but I think the Chargers are your best bet in Week 1.
Besides, better to get them out of the way early, right?
Other possibles: Miami over Buffalo, San Francisco over Seattle.
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Week 2: Denver Over Seattle
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The Broncos have played their best football early in the season in recent years, and they're strong at home. The Seahawks won't be able to make a quick transition to the thin Denver air, and will struggle more than they will the rest of the year.
Other possibles: Philly over Detroit, Carolina over Tampa Bay, Oakland over St. Louis.
Week 3: New England Patriots Over Buffalo Bills
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Even with all the question marks on defense, the Patriots should have no trouble dispatching the Bills in this one. Easiest pick of the week.
Other possibles: Baltimore over Cleveland.
Week 4: New York Jets Over Buffalo Bills
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I'm not high on the Jets this year, but the Bills are going to be a common theme in this year's knockout picks. No way can they stop Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson, much less Mark Sanchez.
Other possibles: Cincinnati over Cleveland, Houston over Oakland, Green Bay over Detroit.
Week 5: Atlanta Falcons Over Cleveland Browns
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A no-brainer. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will lead the Falcons to a strong win in this one.
Other possibles: Indianapolis over Kansas City, Detroit over St. Louis, New Orleans over Arizona.
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers Over Cleveland Browns
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This would be a dangerous pick, were it not for the fact that Ben Roethlisberger returns from suspension this week. With him, it's a good pick, and a good way to get the Steelers off the board.
Other possibles: Chicago over Seattle, Green Bay over Miami, New Orleans over Tampa Bay, Houston over Kansas City.
Week 7: New Orleans Saints Over Cleveland Browns
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The second straight easy matchup for Drew Brees and the Saints. Unlike the Buccaneers last week, though, there is little to no chance for an upset in this one. Saints all the way.
Other possibles: Baltimore over Buffalo.
Week 8: Indianapolis Colts Over Houston Texans
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A strange pick, given the potential talent in Houston, right? Wrong.
Manning has owned the Texans since they joined the league; they have yet to beat him. I don't see anything that says that's changing.
Other possibles: Arizona over Tampa Bay, Carolina over St. Louis.
Week 9: Baltimore Over Miami
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Miami's a decent team, make no mistake about that. But the Ravens look to be the class of the AFC North, if not the conference as a whole. They're going to throw early and often, and Ray Rice will gash the 'Fins big.
Other possibles: New York Giants over Seattle, Atlanta over Tampa Bay, New York Jets over Detroit.
Week 10: San Fransisco 49ers Over St. Louis Rams
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The Niners are a popular pick to win the NFC West. This game will help them get there. Don't be surprised if it's a rout.
Other possibles: Detroit over Buffalo, Carolina over Tampa Bay, Denver over Kansas City.
Week 11: Cincinnati Bengals Over Buffalo Bills
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The Bengals will, in all likelihood, not match their success from last season. But they will definitely beat the Bills, as will just about everyone else.
Other possibles: Dallas over Detroit, New Orleans over Seattle, Atlanta over St. Louis.
Week 12: Carolina Panthers Over Cleveland Browns
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The Panthers have no passing game. But against the woebegone Browns, they won't need one.
Other possibles: Pittsburgh over Buffalo, Baltimore over Tampa Bay, Denver over St. Louis.
Week 13: Minnesota Vikings Over Buffalo Bills
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Like so many before them, the Vikings will play the Bills like a fiddle.
Other possibles: Atlanta over Tampa Bay, Miami over Cleveland.
Week 14: Green Bay Packers Over Detroit Lions
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With the Vikings in their division, expect Green Bay to play their starters agains the Lions. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers should have a field day.
Other possibles: San Francisco over Seattle, New Orleans over St. Louis.
Week 15: Dallas Cowboys Over Washington Redskins
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I don't think the Cowboys are a Super Bowl threat. But I do see them winning this game, provided either the Giants or Eagles have hung around in the NFC East.
Other possibles: Cincinnati over Cleveland, Detroit over Tampa Bay, Miami over Buffalo
Week 16: Tennessee Titans Over Kansas City Chiefs
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The Titans passing game is a mess, as is their defense. But their run game more than makes up for the lackluster passing of Vince Young, and if they're still in the division or wild card race by Week 16, they'll win this no problem.
Week 17: Houston Texans Over Jacksonville Jaguars
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Schaub and the Texans figure to be in the race till the bitter end, and this will be a big game for them. They're better than Jacksonville any day of the week, and should get you the victory.
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