NFL Predictions for 2010 Season: The St. Louis Rams Will Win The NFC West?

This is one of my favorite times of the sports year, the end of NFL preseason. The Sunday Ticket is a week away! The Red Zone Channel and ability to watch 10 games at a time makes up for a season that is bound to be miserable for a Bills fan. Although CJ Spiller is the most exciting CJ to view on television since Baywatch.

I know when I make NFL predictions that I will not get 12 out of 12 right. I will be lucky to get 7 or 8. The reason why picking playoff teams is so difficult because there is always change. Below is the amount of new playoff teams for the last 14 years:

That simple fact also leads to my favorite follow-up article, ripping sports writers who do no research and pick two new playoff teams. Just a small tease for that article—John Clayton is still an idiot.

Six new teams made the playoffs last year. The Jets, Bengals, Patriots, Saints, Packers and Cowboys went from out of the playoffs to in. Most likely six new teams will make the playoffs this year. Trying to figure out which six teams will be in first means determining which six teams are most likely not to make the playoffs this year.

MOST VULNERABLE 2009 PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Arizona - The best thing Arizona has going for it is that they are in the NFC West. Their defense can play well at times, they have a decent young running back in Beanie Wells and a superstar wide receiver. Unless Max Hall becomes a rookie superstar, the Cardinals are in trouble at quarterback. They struggled to make the playoffs with Warner.

2. Cincinnati - The Bengals have only made the playoffs in consecutive years once, in 1981 and 1982, and 1982 had the extended 16 team strike playoffs. I think they struck early last year and surprised a lot of people. They were 3-4 in their last 7 games, and have negative karma going for them after their regular season no show against the Jets. Plus they have TO.

3. New York Jets - I must be missing the Jets awesomeness. A lot of people are seeing a deep playoff run for a team that only made the playoffs because the last two teams they played were not trying to win. You play to win the game, unless it's against the Jets. Their defense is pretty good but the offense is a mess, and there are a lot of Plaxico Burress type characters who can quickly derail a season. Get your bets on a Jets players big suspension now.

4. Minnesota - In 8 of the last 11 years, the #2 playoff seed in the NFC didn't make the playoffs the next year. Brett Favre had his annual mid-life crisis and finally decided to come back to sling the ball to Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. Since Favre came back, Rice is gone and Harvin had experienced migraine headaches 1-231. Favre is a warrior, but he has a bad ankle, and the Vikings just traded their good backup to the Giants. These are the Vikings, bad things eventually happen.

5. Philadelphia - Had Matt Ryan and Michael Turner not been injured in the game against Atlanta, the Eagles may have not made the playoffs last year. With a change in QB, the Eagles could go in any direction and are the perfect example of why making these predictions is often a coin flip.

6. New Orleans - My eyes tell me that the Saints will make the playoffs. They have tons of weapons and Drew Brees is the best quarterback in football. History tells me they may be in trouble. Since the NFL went to 8 divisions, no winner of the NFC South has made the playoffs the next year. The same weird NFC South trend would have the Bucs making the playoffs. It seems illogical but is too constant to ignore. Plus with New Orleans, they made the Super Bowl and one of the Super Bowl teams has to miss the playoffs.

7. Indianapolis - Picking Peyton Manning, the greatest regular season quarterback ever, not to make the playoffs is so tough to do.  The Colts have impressively made the playoffs the last 8 years. Only 1 franchise since the merger made the playoffs 9 years in a row—The 1975 to 1983 Cowboys. The great 49ers of the 80's only managed 8 years in a row.  With that said, no team may have more negative karma going for it than the Colts. The year after the Patriots had Spygate and went 18-1, they didn't make the playoffs. Karma lingers, and the team that quit on a quest for perfection will be haunted. How dumb does that decision look given their Super Bowl defeat and the impending 18 game schedule. Factor in a questionable defense, a bad running game and that 8 of the last 11 Super Bowl losers missed the playoffs the following year, and the Colts could fall to a shocking 8-8 record.

The amazing thing about the five teams I did not list as vulnerable is that a case can be made for all of them not to make the playoffs. I left San Diego off the list because the AFC West stinks and the Chargers are great closers. New England's defense is questionable but I tend not to bet against Tom Brady. Dallas has a shaky offensive line and the Super Bowl is in Arlington and the last home team to even make the playoffs was the 2000 Bucs. The only two teams I feel confident about are Green Bay and Baltimore, so if you are picking at home, pick against one of them.

In picking new teams, you have to factor in dark horses. In 9 of the last 11 years, at least 2 six win or less teams from the previous year have made the playoffs. Green Bay and Cincinnati fit that criteria last year. Only 9 teams had six wins or less last year, meaning that somehow 2 teams from Washington, Detroit, Tampa, Seattle, St. Louis, Kansas City, Oakland, Cleveland and Buffalo will most likely make the playoffs. How I don't know.

I predicted the Rams to win the NFC West, because I am insane. Either that or I see the NFC West as a 4 team wasteland.

I cannot pick Arizona, since even they don't know who their QB is.

Seattle could be a dark horse except they have an old QB with a coach who committed crimes and ran away. Pete Carroll is not a good NFL coach.

That leaves San Francisco, and since every ESPN expert picked them, I can't pick them. I'm not sold on Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree just feels like a chemistry killer. That leaves me with the 1-15 Rams. They will definitely be better, with an actual owner, a franchise quarterback, and a year furthered removed from the awfulness that was Scott Linehan. I don't have much to go on here, but I just have a gut feeling on this one (My Cleveland gut feeling was exactly right last year, since my predictions were based on the last four weeks of the season only). Given the Rams history, any schedule is tough, but this year the first 5 weeks are the Cardinals, Raiders, Redskins, Seahawks and Lions. They have a shot to get some momentum and confidence with some wins.

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions

AFC East - Miami

AFC Central (Hey dummy, there is no AFC Central. Cleveland fans are so smart) - Baltimore

AFC South - Houston (One of these years they will make the playoffs)

AFC West - San Diego

Wild Cards - New England and Kansas City (Any time a team has the AFC and NFC West on their schedule, I have to pick one wild card from them).

If you don't like Houston, look at Jacksonville. They suffered massively from the lack of fan support last year, and now they are used to it and should improve. Their over/under wins is 7 and considering they won 7 last year, that is a pretty good bet.

NFC East - Philadelphia

NFC North - Green Bay

NFC South - Atlanta

NFC West - St. Louis

Wild Cards - New Orleans and NY Giants

I don't feel incredibly confident in my picks, because so many weird events take place during a season. I am confident in one fact about football predictions. John Clayton is still an idiot.