Dog Day Afternoon: NFL Underdogs That Can Win in Week 1
The 2010 NFL season kicks off this week, and the week will be filled with great games and a few upsets.
One of the most interesting things to watch in the first week of the NFL season is the inevitable upsets that happen every week and stun the football world.
Using odds from Bet Mania, here are a few upsets that could shock the NFL in Week 1.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 PM EDT (FOX)
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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 pm EDT (FOX)
All the hype in the preseason for the Green Bay Packers is that they are Super Bowl contenders, and have what it takes to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.
This may be the case, but in the first week they have a tough test in Philadelphia.
Andy Reid and the Eagles management took some heat for releasing long time Eagle Donovan McNabb in favor starting Kevin Kolb.
To prove they made the right decision to the fan base, they will do everything in their power to make sure that Kolb and the Eagles get a “W” in week one.
Reid has had a habit of getting his teams to play early in the season as they are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the last seven games in the month of September.
Aaron Rodgers knows what it’s like to follow a superstar quarterback and wait to get your time as a starter. Rodgers has made the most of it and is now considered one of the best passers in the league.
He will have to be on his game against this Eagles defense if the Packers are going to win.
The Eagles improved an already impressive defense in the draft by acquiring defensive end Brian Graham out of Michigan and Safety Nate Allen out of USF. Both players have performed so well in camp they have already landed starting positions.
The Packers have struggled in the City of Brotherly Love, going 1-5 ATS in the last six and the Eagles have dominated against the NFC North, posting a 28-13 ATS mark.
The sportsbooks have made this line small for a reason. The Eagles upset the Packers and win at home.
Play the Philadelphia Eagles +2
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM EDT (CBS)
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Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 pm EDT (CBS)
This may not be a “must-see” game in Week 1 but there is a chance we could see an upset when the Cleveland Browns travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Both teams are in rebuilding modes, so I guess someone had to be a favorite in this contest, but Tampa Bay will have trouble winning this game, never mind covering the small number.
The Bucs have been bad the last few years and they have the trends to prove it. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 1, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games on grass, and a horrid 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Head Coach Raheem Morris has a good young nucleus on this team, but he has his work cut out for him. This team is building defense with draft picks, but it will be several years before they compete in the NFL. The same could be said about their opponent in Week 1.
The Browns are also in a rebuilding mode, but they have more pieces in place right now to win a few games, including this one. This is the same team that finished the year on a 7-0 ATS mark and won against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
They are 5-1 ATS in the last six road games and have the better personnel on both sides of the ball.
Jake Delhomme steps in at quarterback, and although he has struggled in the past, he has looked very nice in the preseason. He has completed 38 of 48 passes, and that translates to a 79% completion rate.
The Browns lost rookie Montario Hardesty to an injury but have plenty of depth at running back.
The Browns are simply the better team and the points won’t be needed as they win against Tampa Bay in week one.
Play on Cleveland Browns +3
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM EDT (CBS)
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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills 1:00 pm EDT (CBS)
The AFC East is full of teams that are expected to do well in 2010. The Jets are getting all the hype, the Patriots are trying to hold on to the dynasty they built, and the Dolphins have promise in the upcoming season.
What about the Bills? Most “experts” are predicting that the Bills will win less than five games, and be lucky to get close to that number.
There is a funny thing about home field advantage in the NFL. The Bills have always played well at home, and they have a very raucous fan base that always comes out to support the team.
New head coach Chan Gailey knows that he is a work in progress, but believes they can win now.
Rookie running back C.J. Spiller has looked electric in preseason and should make a run for Rookie of the Year.
The Bills are 5-0 ATS in Week 1 and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games in September. The Bills have a history of starting out well, although they have not fielded the best teams in recent years.
The Dolphins have a ton of talent on their team, but it will depend if they can get them to work together as a unit.
Chad Henne looks like he is coming in to this own at quarterback, but starting the season on the road in division play is never easy.
The Dolphins have not had much luck in this series. They are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and they are 1-5 ATS in the last six games in Buffalo.
The Dolphins are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games in September, to include 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games in Week 1.
The Bills are a deadly home team and the home team has dominated this series in the past, going 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games.
Don’t sleep on the Bills in Week 1, they win this game with a late field goal and upset the Dolphins.
Play on the Buffalo Bills +3
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Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM EDT (FOX)
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Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM EDT (FOX)
This is a unique spot for the Steelers because they are underdogs and they are at home, something that is unheard of.
The Steelers are in the underdog role mainly due to the suspension of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger recently had his suspension reduced to four games and will not be allowed to suit up for this contest.
Byron Leftwich was projected as the starter but an injury in the preseason will sideline him and young quarterback Dennis Dixon will get the call.
I was not sold on the Steelers in Week 1, but I like the way that they have responded to all of the distractions and seem to embrace the challenge of playing without Ben.
The Falcons are an up and coming team and projected to be a contender in the NFC. Matt Ryan is becoming a great quarterback and the offense has plenty of weapons.
The question mark for this team has always been the defense, especially in the secondary.
The Falcons upgraded at cornerback by grabbing Dunta Robinson in the off season to bolster weak pass coverage, but he has been banged up all preseason and will not be at 100 percent for this game.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1, and I believe they cherish the adversity and the underdog role. Dixon impresses and the defense dominates and the Steelers win in Week 1.
Play the Pittsburgh Steelers +2
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins 8:20 PM EDT (NBC)
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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins 8:20 pm EDT (NBC)
One of the best rivalries in all of sports continues when the Dallas Cowboys take on the Washington Redskins in Week 1 on Sunday night football.
The Redskins are a different team and they have a new look after hiring a new head coach in Mike Shanahan, and bringing in a veteran signal caller in Donovan McNabb.
The Redskins finished last year off in decent fashion, posting a 5-2-1 ATS record in the last eight games. Football bettors will be rewarded if they stay on the bandwagon for this game against the Cowboys.
The Cowboys have been out of sync in the preseason. While preseason does not always give the full picture of a team’s progress, it is obvious the Cowboys are not ready yet, especially on offense.
The offensive line has been jumbled and rookie Dez Bryant will be seeing his first real dose of NFL action in this game.
Even when this Cowboy team has been playing well they struggled against Washington as they are just 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
In fact, the underdog has dominated this series going 19-7 ATS in the last 26 games. That trend will continue in this game.
Don’t be surprised when the Redskins upset the Cowboys in Week 1.
Play on Washington Redskins +3
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