Fantasy Football Draft Day: Tough Decisions Dissected

Many fantasy football drafts are taking place over the next week.  This is prime drafting season.  The 3^rd preseason games are over, and we’ve had a chance to see the starters in extended action.  Many people have updated their cheat sheets and player rankings.  Only thing left to do is draft!

Even the most prepared drafter will run into certain situations and scenarios, where players closely matched are available at your pick.  In this article will look at 14 pairings of players with back to back ADP.  These are extremely tough calls in most cases.  Several of the FantasyFootballSoup.com staff writers (Rick Coeburn, Ben Rhodarmer, Casey Gallo) have chimed in with their opinions on who to take and why. 

The results were based off a standard scoring league, with 1 PPR.  Let’s take a look at the picks.

Pairing- #1

Roddy White – WR (ATL) – ADP 15

Brandon Marshall- WR (MIA) – ADP 16

Rick’s Pick – Brandon Marshall

100+ catches in 3 straight seasons.  I think a healthy Michael Turner means the Falcons run more this season.

Ben’s Pick – Roddy White

White is one of the most consistent WR1's out there.  He’s had 2 full years with QB M. Ryan in this offense. Marshall is not only going to a new team, but a run first team.

Casey’s Pick – Brandon Marshall

He’s the only viable target in Miami’s receiving core.  He’s proven that he can produce with mid-tier QB, so Henne shouldn’t lower value.

Pairing - #2

Marques Colston – WR (NO) – ADP 26

Wes Welker – WR (NE) – ADP 27

Rick’s Pick – Wes Welker

All indications are that he’ll be ready to go Week 1.  Brees spreads it around a lot.  Colston has more competition for receptions.

Ben’s Pick – Wes Welker

Welker is undoubtedly a top 10 PPR selection when healthy.  He’s already playing in the preseason.  There is no reason to believe he won't be ready come Week 1.

Casey’s Pick – Marques Colston

Even in a PPR league I give the edge to Colston.  Welker is coming off knee surgery and is risky.  Colston will get his targets around goal line where Welker is almost non-existent

Pairing - #3

Matt Forte – RB (CHI) – ADP 39

Jahvid Best – RB (DET) – ADP 40

Chris Wells – RB (ARI) – ADP 41

Rick’s Pick – Jahvid Best

Jahvid is the “best” of this bunch.  Forte has competition with C. Taylor.  Beanie has looked like a bum so far in the preseason.

Ben’s Pick – Jahvid Best

I like Best's upside in the Detroit offense. I think Best will catch a ton of balls and get a crack at 8-10 TD's.

Casey’s Pick – Matt Forte

Forte should have a better year, though he wasn’t horrible last season.  The addition of Chester Taylor scares me a little, but I still feel good about him being productive this season.

Pairing - #4

Mike Walker – WR (JAC) – ADP 53

Hakeem Nicks – WR (NYG) – ADP 54

Hines Ward – WR (PIT) – ADP 55

Rick’s Pick – Hines Ward

Hopefully you’re drafting him as your #2 or # 3 WR.  I like his consistency in that spot.

Ben’s Pick – Hines Ward

He had 95 catches last year, Big Ben is out for 4-6 games, but Santonio Holmes is also gone. That leaves extra targets for Ward, Mike Wallace and Heath Miller.   

Casey’s Pick – Mike Walker

He has firmly established himself as the Jaguars #1 WR.  Nicks shares spotlight with too many WR’s and Ward not having Big Ben for the first 4-6 games depreciates his value.

Pairing - #5

Justin Forsett – RB (SEA) – ADP 64

Reggie Bush – RB (NO) –ADP 65

Rick’s Pick – Justin Forsett

I think Forsett ends with more rushing yards and TD’s, but Bush will have more receptions and receiving yards.  I’d still go with Forsett.

Ben’s Pick – Reggie Bush

Bush is the easy choice for me.  He may flirt with 70 catches now that he’s healthy. He might even get a crack at some red zone carries.

Casey’s Pick – Justin Forsett

Forsett will more than likely emerge as the premier back in Seattle.  He’s also a good receiving RB.

Pairing - #6

Malcolm Floyd – WR (SD) – ADP 67

Donald Driver – WR (GB) –ADP 68

Rick’s Pick – Malcolm Floyd

For me it’s not even close.  Driver has hit his peak and is on his way down.  Floyd is on the rise. He has tons more upside.

Ben’s Pick – Malcolm Floyd

Floyd is the # 1 WR while V-Jax is out (I don’t think Jackson will be back with San Diego anytime soon). Driver is a year older and coming off knee surgery. Not a good combination.

Casey’s Pick – Malcolm Floyd

I went with Floyd because he will be the main WR target this season, especially in the red zone.  Driver’s production will drop as Jennings and Finley continue to emerge.

Pairing - #7

Santana Moss – WR (WAS) – ADP 73

Johnny Knox – WR (CHI) – ADP 74

Terrell Owens – WR (CIN) –ADP 75

Rick’s Pick – Santana Moss

I think he’s got the best QB throwing to him of the bunch.  And he’s the clear #1 WR on the team.

Ben’s Pick – Johnny Knox

Knox is looking like the # 1 WR in a Mike Martz offense. This is normally fantasy gold and at a discounted price.

Casey’s Pick – Santana Moss

Moss will have McNabb throwing to him this season.  There no other WR’s on the Redskins anywhere close to being as talented as him.  He should improve on a low TD total from last year.

Pairing - #8

Ricky Williams – RB (MIA) – ADP 80

Jerome Harrison – RB (CLE) – ADP 81

Michael Bush – RB (OAK) – ADP 82

Rick’s Pick – Ricky Williams

Bush was my pick, prior to the thumb injury. Now I’m going with “Sticky” Ricky Williams. I’ve got no faith that Ronnie Brown can stay healthy, or that Harrison isn’t just a JAG in Cleveland.

Ben’s Pick – Michael Bush

Bush has looked good in the preseason.  His competition is Darren “Fragile” McFadden. With Campbell now in Oakland, Bush may surprise this year.

Casey’s Pick – Ricky Williams

Williams had a monster year in 2009.  He’s a great mid round pick up to fill in as a Flex or even RB2 if you’re in a deeper league.

Pairing - #9

Carnell Williams – RB (TB) – ADP 86

Clinton Portis – RB (WAS) – ADP 87

Rick’s Pick – Carnell Williams

I’m riding the Cadillac.  Assuming he can stay healthy (which is a big assumption) I think Caddy has a shot to really be solid this season.

Ben’s Pick – Carnell Williams

I think Portis is done and Shanahan is known to destroy RB’s fantasy value. Williams will have some solid games, but I would only target him as a RB4.

Casey’s Pick – Clinton Portis

I really think Portis has a bounce back season this year and will firmly take over as the #1 RB in Washington.

Pairing - #10

Braylon Edwards – WR (NYJ) – ADP 99

Steve Breaston – WR (ARI) – ADP 100

Rick’s Pick – Steve Breaston

Braylon has worse hands than “Hanon” from the Little Giants.  Breaston’s QB situation is about as bad as it gets outside of Buffalo.  I’m still going with Breaston.  He’s opposite Fitzgerald which helps too.

Ben’s Pick – Steve Breaston

The Arizona offense has looked bad in the preseason. Breaston is still a much better/consistent player than Edwards.

Casey’s Pick – Steve Breaston

Breaston is a true #2 WR now behind Fitzgerald.  He was productive as WR3 and will get more attention this season.

Pairing - #11

Fred Jackson – RB (BUF) – ADP 106

Tim Hightower – RB (ARI) – ADP 107

Rick’s Pick – Tim Hightower

Beanie has been horrible in the preseason.  Hightower catches it great out of the backfield and will be active around the goal line.  I’m also hearing grumblings that Hightower could take over the #1 RB spot.

Ben’s Pick – Tim Hightower

Buffalo might be the worst offense in the league. Arizona might not be much better, but there are only two mouths to feed in the Arizona backfield, while Buffalo might have three.

Casey’s Pick – Tim Hightower

If Cardinals continue to struggle at QB there will be more screens and dump passes thrown than ever. Hightower is a good receiver out of backfield.  I think Arizona will structure play calls around their strengths and Hightower will be even more productive this season.

Pairing - #12

Devin Hester – WR (CHI) – ADP 114

Lee Evans – WR (BUF) – ADP 115

Rick’s Pick – Lee Evans

Evans is still the unquestioned #1 WR in Buffalo.  Be prepared for some games with 5 points, but also some with 15+.

Ben’s Pick – Devin Hester

I think Chicago will throw it all over the field this season.  Cutler was a Pro-Bowler 2 years ago. Evans will have his one or two huge games, but he will also put up some stinkers. I like Hester who is currently running as a starter.

Casey’s Pick – Lee Evans

Evans is the #1 WR in Buffalo.  I think they are going to air it out this year to remain competitive, with as much as they’ll be playing from behind.

Pairing - #13

Mohamed Massaquoi – WR (CLE) – ADP 127

Bernard Berrian – WR (MIN) – ADP 128

Rick’s Pick – Bernard Berrian

Before the S. Rice injury, it would’ve been Massaquoi in a landslide.  Now I’m rolling the dice on B-Twice.  If healthy, he has top 25 potential.  You can’t ignore his upside.

Ben’s Pick – Bernard Berrian

I think Berrian should put up decent numbers this season. Remember Sidney Rice was an unknown in fantasy land before the old gun-slinger started wearing purple. Brett Favre makes receivers better!

Casey’s Pick – Mohamed Massaquoi

Massaquoi will be team’s #1 WR and Delhomme is due for decent season.  The Browns tend to play from behind and will need to air it out some.  Favre’s health is enough of an issue for me to pick Massaquoi.

Pairing - #14

Roy Williams – WR (DAL) – ADP 139

Nate Burleson – WR (DET) – ADP 140

Mike Williams – WR (TB) – ADP 141

Rick’s Pick – Mike Williams

Picks this late are all about upside for me.  Williams has the most, so I’d go with him. It’s close with Burleson though.

Ben’s Pick – Nate Burleson

Calvin Johnson will draw the double coverage, allowing Burleson to feast on single coverage.  Burleson was putting up good stats as the # 1 WR with Seattle, until he was injured late in the year.

Casey’s Pick – Roy Williams

I’m going with Williams because he has clown feet and should get some red zone targets.  He also plays in the best offense of the 3 choices.

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