Drew Brees With More Passing Yards Than Aaron Rodgers? Don't Bet on It

Who will have more passing yards for the 2010 NFL Season, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady?

Which running back will churn out the most rushing yards, Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson?

Sportsbook.com opened Season Long Player Match-up odds for the upcoming NFL season and at first glance some of the props have plenty of value. What exactly are Season Long Player Match-up odds? Basically the odds-makers match up two NFL players that play the same position. The bettor can wager on which player will record the most yards or touchdowns over the course of the regular season.

After looking at the odds posted, I was left scratching my head thinking how they came up with these odds. Usually I am happy if I can find a wrong number once a week. Today, there were numerous options that jumped off my screen and after doing some quick handicapping of my own, I pounded every one of them for the max.

Player to Record Most Passing Yards

Drew Brees (-350.5)

Aaron Rodgers (+350.5)

Ok, let me get this straight, Rodgers had 46 more passing yards then Brees last season yet he is being spotted over 350 yards. Sure, Brees sat out Week 17 but still that is quite a head start for Rodgers. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver return as a very reliable wide receiver tandem. However, the key for Rodgers surpassing his 4434 passing yards from a year ago lies is tight end Jermichael Finley. After tallying over 70 receiving yards just once in the Packers 11 games, Finley recorded 70+ yards in five of Green Bay's last six games, including a 159 yard outburst versus the Cardinals in the playoffs.

The only thing that worries me about Rodgers staying within 350 yards of Brees is Green Bay's offensive line. Rodgers got absolutely pummeled last season and it was amazing that he was able to play in every game.

Rodgers +350.5 yards is my play.

Player to Record Most Passing Yards

Carson Palmer (-125.5)

Matt Leinart (+125.5)

Coming back from an injury last season, Bengals' signal caller Carson Palmer threw for just 3094 yards. However, you still can't discount Palmer's passing prowess. Before his 2008 injury, Palmer passed for 4035 yards in 2006 and 4131 yards in 2007. Expect his numbers to rebound this season as he'll have an arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant join Chad Ochocinco in what makes up a very talented, albeit loud receiving trio.

The Cardinals selected Leinart in the first round five years ago and to this point, he has done little to nothing to warrant a first round selection. Now that Kurt Warner is off to retirement, Leinart will finally get his shot. However, if Leinart struggles early, don't be surprised if newly acquired Derek Anderson is under center sooner rather than later. Whoever plays quarterback for the Cards this season will have one less weapon as Anquan Boldin now plays for the Baltimore Ravens.

Palmer -125.5 yards is my play.

Player to Record Most Rushing Yards

Ryan Matthews (+150.5)

Steven Jackson (-150.5)

I can't figure out why the odds-makers matched up these two running backs. In one corner we have a rookie who has accumulated the same amount of NFL rushing yards as yours truly – ZERO. In the other corner is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL in Steven Jackson.

Although the St. Louis Rams were brutal last season, Jackson was second in the entire NFL in rushing yards last season, piling up 1416 yards. The 27 year old back has now surpassed the 1000 yard plateau in each of his last five seasons. With rookie Sam Bradford likely to start at quarterback, expect Jackson to get 300+ rushing attempts in 2010.

Now onto his competition: Matthews. The Chargers thought enough of the bruising back out of Fresno State that they moved up in the first round of April's NFL Draft to select LaDainian Tomlinson's replacement. Although rookies have a hard time adjusting to the NFL, running backs often have the easiest transition. That being said, can he keep pace with one of the NFL's best backs? Doubtful.

Jackson -150.5 yards is my play.

Player to Record Most Receiving Touchdowns

Randy Moss (-4.5)

Terrell Owens (+4.5)

In the battle of future Hall of Fame receivers, Tom Brady's favorite target, Randy Moss, is the favorite. Last season, Moss tied for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions with 13. Terrell Owens, on the other hand, had just five scores in Buffalo.

At 33 years of age, Moss is still the most talented receiver in the NFL. After all, just two years ago Moss recorded double-digit (11) touchdowns even though Matt Cassell was throwing to him instead of Brady. Yardage wise, Moss’ productivity slipped towards the end of the 2009 season as he averaged just 53 yards per game over his last seven games. However, he still managed to haul in six scores over the same period.

Last season, T.O. finally showed signs that he is no longer a #1 receiver, surpassing the 100 yard mark just once. Now in Cincinnati and 36 years old, Owens will have to share the ball and the limelight with Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant.

Barring injuries, it is hard to imagine Moss catching fewer than 11 touchdowns. Moreover, it is equally hard to imagine Owens doing a touchdown dance more than six times.

Moss -4.5 touchdowns is my play.

Currently Sportsbook.com has almost 50 of these match-ups live and there are plenty more that wreak of value. Check them out and I’ll meet you at the payout window in a few months.