Will Ian Desmond Be Fantasy Baseball Usable in 2011?

Eric Stashin

Aug 13, 2010

Ian Desmond is a bit of an enigma to me. He has the potential to be a speed/power combo at the plate, but his defense could eventually cost him playing time. He leads all of baseball with 27 errors. No one else has more then 17.

I know, fantasy owners don’t care about defense, but if it starts costing him playing time, it will become a major factor.

As far as his ability at the plate, there is certainly a lot that would be attractive to fantasy owners. Just look at his performance thus far:

TOP NEWS

351 At Bats
.262 Batting Average (92 Hits)
9 Home Runs
48 RBI
42 Runs
12 Stolen Bases
.296 On Base Percentage
.410 Slugging Percentage
.303 Batting Average on Balls in Play

From a shortstop, there’s a lot to like. At the same time, there are some underlying numbers that raise a few red flags.

The first problem is his walk rate: he basically has none. He has walked just 16 times, a BB% of 4.2%. Over his minor league career, he walked 203 times in 2,375 AB, a BB% of 7.9%, so there is a little bit of hope for improvement.

That’s something to watch, because if he’s not drawing walks, his ability to score runs will be limited. His BABIP is believable, coupled with a strikeout rate of 20.8%. That’s slightly better then his minor league mark (21.9%), but not egregiously so. There could be a regression, but not a huge one.

So, if he’s going to be a .255-.270 hitter, he needs to draw ample walks to utilize his speed and score some runs. If he can’t do that, his value will be limited.

He’s more of a groundball hitter (49.8%), but does generate enough fly balls (33.0%) to be a 14-17 HR hitter. That’s about the talent he showed in the minor leagues, where he posted a 38.3% fly ball rate.

Desmond turns 25 years old in September, so it’s possible that he could still add a little more power. If he can improve on his 9.8% HR/FB, I could see him developing into a player who hits around 20 HR a year, though I wouldn’t expect much more than that.

The speed pretty much is what it is at this point. He appears to have the stuff to swipe around 20 bases a year, maybe a few more, but that’s about it.

So, when you put it together, you have a .260ish hitter with the potential to go 20/20, though it’s far from a guarantee that he gets there. He may struggle to get on base, limiting his chances to score runs, and his defense may ultimately cost him regular playing time.

Is he worth the gamble? Sure, but right now, I’m not taking him as a starter.

What are your thoughts of Desmond? Am I being too critical? How good do you think he could be?

Make sure to check out our recent Scouting Reports: