Series Preview: St. Louis @ Florida

For this preview, I'll be following the general guidelines I use on my own previews, an explanation of which you can find here. I warn you: these are pretty numbers-heavy, so it may tough for some to get used to. I'll be showing current and projected stats for pitchers on both sides and the Cardinals lineup, using statistics such as wOBA (a total offense stat) and FIP (a defense-independent ERA estimator). All of these stats can be found on FanGraphs, and you can find explanations of them in their glossary section.

St. Louis Cardinals (60-48) @ Florida Marlins, August 6-8, Games 109-111

NL East Standings

 

Tm	W	L	Win%	GB
CIN	61	48	.560	--
STL	60	48	.556	0.5
MIL	50	59	.459	11.0
HOU	47	60	.439	13.0
CHN	47	61	.435	13.5
PIT	38	70	.352	22.5

Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
Five-year Run PF*: 0.99
Five-year HR PF*: 0.97
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 361
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 361
Right Field: 345

*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here

Projected Pitching Matchups

August 6: Ricky Nolasco vs. Adam Wainright
August 7: Josh Johnson vs. Jake Westbrook
August 8: Sean West vs. Jeff Suppan

ZiPS In-Season Projections

FIP	Proj. FIP	Win%	Marlins	Date	Cardinals	Win%	Proj. FIP	FIP
3.99	3.63	.560	Nolasco	August 6	Wainright	.635	3.04	2.98
2.32	2.68	.683	Johnson	August 7	Westbrook	.523	3.94	4.54
7.31	5.43	.371	West	August 8	Suppan	.400	5.11	5.26

Projected Lineup

Lineup	Player	Current OPS	Current wOBA	Proj. wOBA
1	Felipe Lopez	.739	.330	.318
2	Jon Jay	.986	.406	.323
3	Albert Pujols	.972	.405	.445
4	Matt Holliday	.902	.388	.395
5	Colby Rasmus	.875	.373	.345
6	Yadier Molina	.637	.285	.316
7	Skip Schumaker	.656	.296	.324
9	Brendan Ryan	.589	.284	.297

Notes

- There is still debate about whether or not the Cardinals should have traded Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook and prospects. Westbrook goes for his second start as a Card against the Marlins. His first start could not have gone any better, as he struck out seven and walked only one in six innings against Houston. He'll have to face the ace of the Marlins staff, budding star Josh Johnson.

- Yes, you're seeing it right. Albert Pujols is having another excellent year, but the projection systems are saying he should hit even better going forward. Yikes.

- The Cincinnati Reds won earlier today, shutting out the Chicago Cubs and pulling ahead of St. Louis in the division. Obviously, every series now is more important than ever.

Bold Prediction: Cardinals win two of three games.