Fantasy Football Underrateds: Worth a First But These Guys Won't Cost It

Reid BrooksAug 6, 2010

Fantasy football has turned into a game of preseason value assessments.

All of the safe picks in the world and clinging to draft strategy won't do your team any good; the big winners last year took chances.

Imagine a team that had drafted Chris Johnson in the 2nd round, Matt Schaub in the 5th round, and Miles Austin in the 10th last season. Then throw in a Free Agent acquisition of Vernon Davis. Such a team would have been almost unbeatable.

All of those guys (with the exception of Davis just because he is a TE) put up numbers that would have warranted first round picks in many leagues. yet they were available that late in drafts.

Here is a short list of guys you'll want to jump on because of their undervalued status on draft day. They'll likely perform like first rounders, but they'll come with a bargain basement price tag.

That is ultimately what will win you a fantasy league.

Please note, this is not for PPR, just standard scoring.

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Miles Austin

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I'll start with my article cover model, Miles Austin of the Dallas Cowboys.

Now that Dez Bryant is out for a bit, people can quit fearing that Austin will lose some of his production. He is a lock as the Cowboys number one receiver, and they don't have an overly difficult schedule this season.

That being said, Austin was a top 3-5 receiver last season depending upon you scoring format. What people forget is that he accomplished those statistics in only 12 games.

Austin didn't have his coming out party until game 5.

If you factor in his four irrelevant games (which should be relevant this year) his stats would have jumped to around 110 receptions, 1700 yards, and 15 touchdowns. The guy is set to become the king of fantasy receivers.

As long as he fights off Jason Witten for touchdowns, Miles Austin is going to be the guy to beat.

Did I mention he plays for a very good team in the Dallas Cowboys?

Keep that in mind when you're drafting. If he is available in the late 2nd round or early 3rd, consider yourself extremely lucky.

Ahmad Bradshaw

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The New York Giants' running back of the future's time is now. He surpassed Brandon Jacobs in fantasy productivity last year, but for some reason, no one is paying any attention to him.

Oh and by the way, his almost 5 yards-per-carry average was taking place with him having two broken feet.

That's right, Ahmad Bradshaw with broken feet is better than Brandon Jacobs.

He has been getting all of the first team reps in training camp as Tom Coughlin enters a do-or-die year in New York, and Bradshaw figures to have an increased workload with his team.

For some reason, he still isn't being looked at in fantasy circles. The guy is falling into the sixth round in most drafts, but I have him projected for a 1300 yard, 11 touchdown season. Thats pretty much on target with about a 30% increase in workload given his productivity last season.

Right now, he is the ultimate fantasy sleeper.

Joseph Addai

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Fantasy owners seem to hate him because he doesn't really rush as much as people would like, but his usefulness in Peyton Manning's passing game makes him hard to ignore.

If your league handicaps receptions, then you would be wise to look elsewhere, but Joseph Addai isn't done in fantasy football. Laugh when one of your cohorts drafts Donald Brown.

Last year, Addai had a 1200 yard (rushing and receiving) and ten touchdown season. Plus, he didn't really get enough touches to make me worry about his durability.

If he is available at the end of round two, and you're wise enough to grab him, feel safe in your investment.

Of course, a gambling man could risk letting him slide into the late third round.

Know your opponents and their biases. That helps you steal picks on great players they don't want.

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Pierre Thomas

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With Mike Bell out of New Orleans, Thomas will only be competing with Reggie Bush for carries. Given the durability issues of Bush (Thomas has some of his own) the guy figures to be the one the Saints lean on.

If Sean Payton didn't favor the committee back, and if Thomas was guaranteed to be healthy, he would almost always be a top 5 running back choice in drafts. People avoid him because of the playing style down in New Orleans.

However, things seem to be set for Thomas to break out this year with an increased share of the work load, and he could be set to lead the Saints offense.

If his carries total from last year was doubled (which would still only put him at 295) in the absence of Bell, then his other stats would have run at 1600 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Most drafts have him falling into the third round.

Taking a chance on Pierre Thomas would be a wise investment.

Did I even need to mention he will be running behind one of the top three offensive lines in the NFL?

Shonn Greene

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There is definitely some risk here with Greene, as he only really performed in the playoffs last year, however, he plays on the league's best rushing team.

And I expect he will be able to battle off the aging LaDainian Tomlinson.

Questions about his durability are completely fair, and it is possible he will have a sophomore slump, but the sky is the limit for Greene. He could end up being this year's Chris Johnson.

While he is going in the second round for most drafts, making it hard to really call him a steal, Greene will be behind the league's best offensive line on a run first team.

The ancient Thomas Jones was able to dominate the ground with that line last season in the absence of Leon Washington. The young Greene should put up even better numbers.

The question marks are keeping him out of the first round for most people, but if you're drafting style is still running back to running back, he might just win you your league as your second pick.

And don't end up being too surprised if he is better than your first.

Greene will require some patience as he opens up the season with a brutal schedule facing off against the Packers and the Ravens early.

Sidney Rice

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Sidney Rice played like a hero last year and emerged as Brett Favre's favorite target with over 1300 yards receiving and eight touchdowns.

Now, only at the age of 23 and having old number four likely returning is making Rice a very valuable commodity.

He certainly has the potential to play like a late first round pick if he can simply increase his touchdown total slightly. He hit eight last season.

However, his incredible 15.8 yards-per-reception average is jaw dropping. Considering that receivers in his age group tend to show massive improvement in a very short period of time (if they have shown they can be good), this year Rice will be looking for a 25% improvement to get himself to 100 receptions.

If his other numbers follow along, that would make for a 1600 yard, ten touchdown performance.

Its way too early to call him Randy Moss part two, but there is something special there. Brett Favre knows that and he'll use it to his advantage as the Vikings fight for a Super Bowl berth again this year.

This third or fourth round pick is worth getting your hands on.

Jamaal Charles

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The addition of Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster to the Kansas City Chiefs roster has left fantasy elites skeptical of Charles despite his break out success in 2009. He should remain the number one guy on the Chiefs.

The only real concern I have about him is that he plays for the Chiefs, but I think that team is in the process of getting a lot better very quickly.

Charles is a second round selection who will play like a first rounder. He is a high risk/high reward back in a manner very similar to Shonn Greene. If you're looking for value, Charles might have it.

He really shouldn't end up competing with too many other guys for big play opportunities, as I don't see Dwayne Bowe ever becoming the player he should be.

Give him a look on draft day if you feel the value ends up being right.