Can Tommy Hunter Sustain His Success?

Every year, teams get contributions from guys they really weren’t counting on during the regular season. One of the main reasons the Texas Rangers have enjoyed success in 2010 is because of guys like pitcher Tommy Hunter.

Hunter is off to a 7-0 start for Texas.

The Rangers weren’t expecting much from Hunter this year, he improved to a perfect 7-0 after he defeated the Detroit Tigers Tuesday night in Detroit. Hunter became the first pitcher in franchise history to start a season with seven wins and no losses. I know the Rangers don’t have the richest history when it comes to pitching, but it’s certainly an accomplishment.

Hunter started 19 games last year. He was 9-6 with a 4.10 ERA while giving up a little over a hit an inning. I don’t think anyone expected Hunter to have the 2010 he is having.

So what has been the key to Hunter’s success so far?

Well, for starters, he is throwing more groundballs than ever before. This year he is killing worms 40 percent of the time, which is a three percent increase from last year and almost a 10 percent increase from 2008.

Second, he is throwing his fastball a lot more than last year and his fastball, at 90 mph, has become a plus pitch. Last year, Hunter was relying on his offspeed stuff only throwing his fastball 38 percent of the time. If a pitcher doesn’t have confidence in his fastball, then I will show you a pitcher who isn’t successful.

In 2010, Hunter has increased his fastball usage. He is throwing his fastball about 56 percent of the time. A huge increase from last season.

So the question is can Hunter sustain this success over the course of the second half of the season?

I am going to say he will be hard pressed to do so. There are two reasons for this.

1. Hitters have only a .253 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against Hunter in 2010. That is bound to increase throughout the course of the season. To give you an idea how low that is, Josh Johnson has a .285 BABIP against him.

2. If hitters are going to get more hits against you and you don’t strike hitters out (4.98 K/9), then more runs are going to be scored. Right now, Hunter’s strand rate is 86 percent. 86 percent!!! That is the pure definition of “Bend but don’t break.”

There is no way Hunter can maintain that level. Eventually that runner on second with two outs is going to score.

While Hunter may get his wins because of the Rangers’ prolific offense, expect him to get some losses along the way and for his ERA to increase as the second half continues.

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