Will the Real Casey McGehee Please Stand Up?
Casey McGehee delivered a breakout performance for the Milwaukee Brewers last season batting .301 with 16 homers and 66 RBI in just 355 at-bats.
McGehee thenย silenced his doubters by batting .300 with nine home runs and 41 RBI through the first two months of 2010.
His bat has since cooled, however, forcing fantasy managers to question McGeheeโs true worth.
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To completely understand McGeheeโs value, letโs examine his relatively unknown past.
Drafted inย 2003 as a 10thย round pick, McGeheeย played first base, second base, third baseย andย shortstop during his six-year minor league career. Heย also caught a total of 93 games atย three different levels.
McGehee displayed doubles power in the minors and enjoyed his best season at Triple-A in 2008 with the Iowa Cubs (a team whoโs homeย games I attended regularly as a scorekeeper for Baseball Info Solutions).
McGeheeโs bat was a big reason for the I-Cubs success that season, as he hit .296 with 12 homers and 92 RBI in 550 plate appearances. Still, his future as a big league hitter appeared non-existent.
Aย September call up ensued, but the Cubsย were forced to let him go at seasonโs end. The Brewers gave him a lookย during spring trainingย theย followingย year and he didnโt disappoint as heย made the team as an infield reserve.
The former Fresno State Bulldogย found himself in a platoon at second base with Craig Counsell by June and earned regular playing time at third base soon after.
639 at-bats later, the now 27-year-old McGehee has 28 career homersย and 116 RBI in 189 games with the Brewers.
Because of his recent struggles (.209 average, three homers, nine RBI in June), fantasy managersย are beginning to question his true value.
After some quick number crunching, it has become obvious toย meย that now is a great time to buy-low on Casey McGehee. Hereโs why:
McGeheeโs 2009ย rookie campaignย was viewed by some as a fluke and for goodย reason.ย In six minor league seasons, he hit .279 and never topped 12 homers in a single year.
Comparing his 2009 totals to his numbers through three months in 2010 suggests his successย this year has beenย legit.
| ย | PA | R | HR | RBI | AVG |
| 2009 | 394 | 58 | 16 | 66 | .301 |
| 2010 | 316 | 34 | 12 | 50 | .271 |
The biggest difference from last season is his drop in batting average, which can be explained by his 14.7 percent line drive rate (21.6 percent last year).
His 2009 BABIP (.330) has dropped to .288 this season, but should begin to rise as he breaks free from his recent slump. This will boost McGeheeโs batting average as well, though heโs likely more of a .280 hitter.
McGeheeโs walk and strikeout rates are both respectable and in line with his 2009 totals, asย are his HR/FB and above-average contact rates.
At his current pace (over a conservative total of 550 at-bats), McGehee is on his way toย a 66 run, 23 HR,ย and 97 RBI reason. Still eligible at second base, those numbers are extremely valuable considering top two-baggers Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia recently hit the DL.
Looking forward to 2011, McGehee is a definite top 10 option at a dwindling third base position. In fact, you could argue heโll be ranked as high as sixth among players at the hot corner.
Planning a trip to see Casey McGehee and the rest of the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park? Check out StadiumJourney.comย for insider info on local transportation, nearby restaurants, and an in-depth review of Miller Park.
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