What Happens When Carlos Beltran Returns?

There has been much speculation around the timing of Carlos Beltran’s return to the Mets lineup.  For over a year now, his full return has been put forth by many as the missing ingredient to get the Mets going.  But a funny thing has happened this season – something not predicted by both MLB expert prognosticators and Mets faithful fans alike - the team has played very well without him!

That’s not to say that Carlos Beltran at 100% would not incrementally improve this team – he obviously would!  But the players that he would likely replace in the line-up – Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur – have stepped up this year under pressure to be big contributors to the Mets current success.   So figuring out where to play Beltran when he returns and who to sit is an issue that will need to be addressed.  This is a high-class problem obviously but an issue nevertheless.

I see a couple of possible scenarios for when he returns (assuming of course that he does return; otherwise, my whole article is moot!):

1.       Beltran comes back 100% (or close) and reassumes his place in CF.  Pagan and Francoeur become somewhat of a platoon in RF with whoever has the hot bat getting more swings.  Pagan perhaps replaces Beltran in CF late in games to avoid overworking him during his recovery.

2.       If Beltran is unable to play CF due to reduced mobility, then he will probably replace Frenchy in right (while possibly giving Bay an occasional day off in left).   While Jeff has been better at the plate as of late, Beltran should be an offensive upgrade over the streaky Francoeur.  But Jeff has a cannon of an arm, one which is respected enough around the league to cause many a third-base coach to hold baserunners at third.  Beltran has a plus arm, but it is not equal to Francoeur’s.  And if Carlos can’t play CF, by definition, he won’t be at 100% - so don’t expect his traditionally exceptional speed on the bases either.

People often worry about team chemistry and specifically the impact of Beltran back in the clubhouse with somebody losing out on playing time.  This team definitely has very good chemistry – they’re hustling on every play, fighting back from deficits and having fun.  I’d like to think that one man could not change that.  In the end, if the team is winning and Beltran plays well – all will be ok.  If Beltran struggles during his comeback, especially versus the productivity the team is currently getting from Pagan and Francoeur, then there will be questions and criticism - from the media, from the fans and ultimately the locker-room…

Longer term, the Mets will have to decide how Beltran fits into their future plans.  He has been a gold-glove CF but given his recent injury and the specter of microfracture surgery, will he be able to regain and sustain that again?  While he hit 0.325 in 81 games last year, he is a career .283/.360/.496 hitter – how long before he can deliver even close to that production?

Next year is the last year of Beltran’s 7 yr/$117MM contract.  It is unlikely, given his injury, age (33), and the backlog of OF prospects in the Mets farm system (Fernando Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis), that the Mets would re-sign Carlos at anything close to that annual rate and certainly not long-term.  Furthermore, it has been suggested that Beltran is unhappy with how the Mets handled his medical treatment and rehabilitation – and might want to go elsewhere anyway.  Could Beltran be dealt in the offseason to a team in need of a CFer for a high-end prospect or two, or packaged with a prospect for top-end starting pitching?  If that is the plan, it is all the more important that the Mets showcase him in the lineup this year, so that the league doesn’t view him as damaged goods.

While I have been a big Carlos Beltran fan, I am first of all a Met fan.  In the end, baseball is a business.  It would be a shame to have him play out his contract and get nothing for him.

This is my first Bleacher Report article… so be kind!