MLB: Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidate: Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy is a really interesting pitcher to look at when it comes to his fantasy value.  Owners were hoping to get a potential ace at a bargain price on draft day. Thus far, his numbers far from reflect that:

5 Wins
83.1 Innings
5.62 ERA
1.33 WHIP
70 Strikeouts (7.6 K/9)
27 Walks (2.9 BB/9)
.304 BABIP

It’s ugly, but it actually doesn’t tell the full story of his performance.  When you dig in and check his monthly splits, there’s a much different story to be told.

First, he posted a 7.85 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over 28.2 innings in April. His control was absolutely awful, walking 20 batters, including two games of at least five walks. For a pitcher with a career BB/9 of 2.9, that’s unthinkable.

He’s clearly rebounded, with a BB/9 of 1.1 in May, and 1.3 thus far in June. That’s certainly more along the lines of the type of pitcher Peavy has always proven to be.

That was not the only struggle in April, however, as he was plagued by below average luck (.327 BABIP), and a decreased strikeout rate (7.0 K/9). You couple those three things together and you realize that there was significant room for improvement.

May, however, did not bring significantly better results. He posted a 5.09 ERA. Again, that number is extremely deceiving, as it came courtesy of a 1.12 WHIP, and his strikeouts rebounded to 9.0 K/9.

The problem? The long ball. He gave up seven HR for a HR/9 of 1.6. Even pitching outside of Petco Park, that’s extreme given his career mark of 0.9. Again, you’d expect that number to increase with the move to the AL and into that ballpark, but this is just too much.

In June, everything seems to be falling into place. Over his first two starts, he’s allowed just one HR. His control is back in order. He’s benefiting from some good luck (.259 BABIP).

Yes, the strikeouts aren’t there, with a K/9 of 5.1. However, when those come back around (and with Pittsburgh next on the schedule they should), things will just continue to look up.

When you just look at Peavy on the surface, he’s a pitcher that you want nothing to do with. However, when you peel things back, layer by layer, you see that there is a lot to like.

If there’s an owner in your league that is frustrated by him, I certainly would be willing to buy if the price is right. He’s shown the signs, and good days appear to be ahead.

What are your thoughts on Peavy? Are you buying or selling? How good do you think he could be moving forward?

Make sure to check out other recent Scouting Reports:

• Brett Cecil
• Jason Donald
• John Ely
• Brett Gardner
• John Jaso
• Brad Lincoln
• Jonathan Lucroy
• Jonathan Niese
• Mike Stanton
• Andres Torres

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM