PPR Leaguers: Adapt or Go Extinct

James Hatfield May 11, 2010

PPR leagues are won with solid WR play. Most PPR leagues play 3 WR’s
(most even have a flex or two). Those slots have the potential to
earn big points with rock-solid WR play in PPR leagues. To win your
league, you need to maximize that potential. Most people will think
that having a stable of RB’s wins fantasy championships – IT DOESN’T.
Let’s look at some RB stats from last season. If a RB average’s 60
rushing yards a game, that’s 960 yards in a 16 game fantasy season.
Most leagues end in week 16, so week 17 stats don’t count in a fantasy
season (sorry Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles). In most leagues 60
rushing yards is 6 points (1 point for every 10 rushing yards). Now,
what if I told you that only 13 RB’s had a better average than 60
rushing yards a game last season, you’d probably have to read that
statement again. If you did read it again, it’s true. Only 13 RB’s
had 960 rushing yards or more. I don’t know about you, but in my
league top 13 RB’s are normally 2nd or 3rd round picks. Getting 6
points of rushing yards a game isn’t what I’m looking for out of my
2nd or 3rd round pick.

Let’s go one step further. If a RB averages 80 yards rushing a game,
that’s 1280 rushing yards a season (or 8 fantasy points for rushing
yards). How many RB’s do you think averaged 80 rushing yards a game?
It was just 5. That’s right, only 5 RB’s in the entire league
averaged 80 rushing yards a game in a 16 game fantasy season (keep in
mind week 17 stats don’t count). Ray Rice didn’t even do it. Guys
you drafted in the top rounds like Frank Gore and DeAngelo Williams
didn’t average 80 yards a game. Matt Forte, Brandon Jacobs, Marion
Barber and Joseph Addai didn’t even average 60 rushing yards a game.
Those are very high draft picks to not get great production.

I think there has been a decline in the fantasy value of RB’s over the
last couple seasons. The decline of the RB has a lot to do with the
rise of the passing era in the NFL. It also has a lot to do with
Running Back By Committee (RBBC) situations. Most teams deploy a
multiple RB offense. This leads to less carries, less yardage and
less fantasy points. However, the exact opposite can be said for
WR’s. A starting WR is going to play, on most, if not all downs.
There is a reason we don’t have an acronym called WRBC (Wide Receiver
By Committee). Most starting WR’s are on the field regardless of down
or distance. With the NFL becoming increasingly more pass focused,
the value of WR’s will continue to go up. WR’s are now more value
than RB’s, especially in PPR leagues. You should draft accordingly in
your 2010 league.

Drafting a solid stable of WR’s wins PPR championships. How many
teams out there coasted to the fantasy playoffs because of WR play?
While some teams were taking Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber in the
first 3 rounds, someone was taking Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker or
Brandon Marshall. While someone wasted a 4th or 5th round pick on
Steve Slaton (if not higher), someone took Marques Colston, DeSean
Jackson or Vincent Jackson. Also factor in these teams could’ve take
Steve Smith (Giants) and Sidney Rice in the later rounds of the draft.
That team had the potential to have Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall,
DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith. That team wins championships. If you
think that’s not better than a team with Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton
and your WR’s being guys like Dwayne Bowe, Lee Evans and Bernard
Berrian – I want to play in your league.
I’m just saying we, in general (me included sometimes), draft RB’s way
to high. My draft strategy over the past couple seasons has been to
take WR’s early and often in my PPR drafts. For your draft this
season, don’t do the conventional RB, RB, WR in your league. Zig when
everyone else is zagging. Consider taking 3 WR's in the fist 4 rounds
of your draft this season. You don’t win fantasy championships
without consistent WR play. Don’t waste high picks on inconsistent
RB’s. Do yourself a favor and take some chances on WR’s during your
draft this season. Take some earlier than you normally would. It
could pay out with a championship trophy.