2010 MLB Projections: How Good Is New York Mets' Pitcher Mike Pelfrey?

Mike Pelfrey dazzled the Cubs Tuesday night, allowing no runs on three hits and three walks in seven innings. He also struck out six en route to his third win in as many starts. The 26-year-old now has a 0.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 16:8 K:BB ratio through 21 innings.

The question all fantasy managers are asking now is: How good is Mike Pelfrey ?

Based on his previous two seasons with the Mets, it’d be easy to write him off…but that would be a mistake.

In 2007, Baseball America ranked Pelfrey as the Mets’ No. 1 prospect (ahead of Carlos Gonzalez and Fernando Martinez), claiming the intimidating 6-foot-7 right-hander had “the potential to be a legitimate No. 1 starter.” The only obstacle, they claimed, would be the development of his secondary pitches.

Command has rarely been an issue for Pelfrey (career 3.43 walk rate). His lack of a swing-and-miss pitch, however, has led to a .276 and .289 batting average against in each of the last two seasons.

Pelfrey had everything in his arsenal working Tuesday night, working off of his 91-92 MPH fastball while flashing a nasty splitter (see here ). He also mixed in a slider and a changeup, running his scoreless-inning streak to 19.

Though it may have taken him a while to figure things out, Pelfrey appears primed to justify the Mets selecting him in the first round (ninth overall) in the 2005 draft.

Every season a few players rise to fantasy stardom without warning, and Pelfrey may very well one of those guys in 2010. He won’t rack up high strikeout totals, but there’s reason to believe his early success is legit. The Mets’ No. 2 starter should be owned in all leagues.

FBI Forecast: 200 IP, 16 W, 140 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

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