Patriots-Bills: How the Bills Can Shape Their Own Fate

Here's why I'd never make it as a coach in the NFL:

If I were running the show for the Buffalo Bills, this week would be Star Trek Week.

Forget bulletin board quotes from opposing linebackers—I'll take a life-size cutout of Captain Kirk, or maybe some quotes from Mr. Spock.

Who knows—I might even fly Mr. Sulu in for a pep talk.

And my point would be this:

The Buffalo Bills will wake up Monday morning in one of two universes.

Universe One looks much like the one we're in right now: The Bills are distant contenders for the playoffs, and they'll most definitely need some help as the season comes to a close.

Universe Two, on the other hand, looks different.

Universe Two looks better.

In Universe Two, Buffalo places its nose squarely in position to sniff a playoff spot. In Universe Two, the Bills are legitimate contenders for the postseason.

What's the difference between these universes?

The outcome of Sunday's game between the Bills and this year's Goliath—the New England Patriots.

If the Bills ever wanted to provide concrete proof of the "Any Given Sunday" rule, here's their chance. Not only do they have a formidable opponent playing in their house—they have a chance to dramatically improve their playoff prospects.

The simulation engine that generates projections for ChanceBot.com, though, is a cold-hearted piece of machinery. It gives the Patriots an 84 percent chance of winning the game.

But the truth is that the Bills have nothing to lose.

In a certain sense, every projection ChanceBot makes about the AFC playoff picture assumes the Patriots leave Buffalo with a win. A win by the Pats drops the Bills' projected playoff chances by a negligible margin—down to about 6 percent from the current 8 percent.

But say the Bills pull off the upset. What happens then?

While the exact impact will depend on what happens in other games, this much is clear: A win by the Bills on Sunday would at least double their chances of making the playoffs—and might even cause those chances to roughly triple, from the current 8 percent to about 22 percent.

With upcoming games against Jacksonville and Cleveland, the Bills would be in a great position to climb the ladder toward the playoffs.

So reanimate Scotty and dust off those warp drives, Buffalo. It's time to boldly go...

(Cue theme music.)