Mythbusters: There Is NO SUCH THING As a Sure Thing...

As we get closer and closer to the draft, scouts and media pundits find those players they tend to fall in love with.  "This quarterback is the next Peyton Manning!"  "This Running back is the next Hershal Walker."  We all hear these stories, and we all fall in love with these prospects, only to watch these players often not live up to their heightened expectations.  Then, when they don't, we all admit we saw the flaws in this player from the beginning.

This years "Hall of Famer before he steps into an NFL locker room award" goes to Ndamokong Suh, The most heralded defensive tackle to enter the national football league...ever.  He is the first defensive player to win AP National Player of the Year.  He finished fourth in the Heisman trophy voting...and most people thought that was a crime!  Nagurski award winner, Outland trophy winner, and a unanimous all-american selection, Mel Kiper said he was the best defensive tackle he's seen in thirty-two years of NFL scouting.  Skip Bayless from ESPN's First Take said that Suh was better at this stage in his career than Reggie White.  And its well deserved!  Who's ever heard of a defensive tackle leading his team in tackles for two straight seasons?  And his 12.5 tackles and 4.5 sacks against Texas in the Big 12 Title game may go down as one of the greatest defensive individual performances in the history of college football.

Let me stress again that I really do like Suh.  I am not a Suh-hater, I actually think its comical the way Suh destroyed offensive lines this year.  However, I'm hearing a term associated with him this year that I've continuously heard and thinks is very dangerous:  SURE THING.  Way too many times I've heard the term associated with players coming into the draft, and they turn into anything but sure things.  Like I heard one analyst on the NFL network say, "If there was such thing as a sure thing, alot less general managers will be fired."  You never know what could happen with players...injuries, lack of drive, or a failure to adjust to the NFL game cause plenty of top picks to fall short of expectations, and it can happen to any player...at any position.  While its been well documented the failure rate at the quarterback position among first round quarterbacks, first round busts happen at every position.

Suh is probably the most hyped player entering the draft since Reggie Bush.  If anyone remembers the hoopla surrounding Bush when he declared for the draft, ESPN analysts were putting Bush in the Hall of Fame!  Some called him the next Gale Sayers.  The result:  Reggie Bush has had a mediocre to decent NFL career so far, but he hasn't lived up to his major hype.  He hasn't rushed for 1000 yards in a season yet, and has struggled with injuries.  The most heralded lineman to enter the NFL was "the Incredible Bulk," Tony Mandarich.  He was considered the greatest offensive line prospect ever at 6'6 and 315 pounds, running a 4.65 40 yard dash (thats what roids can do for you...).  However, he had an rather forgettable career that caused Sports Illustrated to place his picture on their cover, calling him "the NFL's incredible bust."

While many of us are very aware of the many NFL draft busts concerning the quarterback position, consider the sparse success concerning highly drafted defensive tackles.  Since 1990, eight defensive tackles have been taken in the top five.  Of those eight players, only three made at least one Pro-Bowl.  Of the three defensive tackles taken first overall, only one ever made a Pro-Bowl.  And none of these defensive tackles turned franchises around. 

While you're thinking that none of these Defensive tackles was ever as heralded as Suh, consider the story of Steve Emtman.  After playing three seasons at UCLA, Emtman was a conscensus All-American, the Outland trophy winner, the Lombardi Trophy winner, the Bill Willis Award winner, and the UPI Lineman of the Year.  He even finished FOURTH in the Heisman trophy vote (Sound familiar?).  After going #1 in the 1992 draft to the Indianapolis Colts, injuries destroyed his promising NFL careers.

Am I saying that Suh will be a bust?  Of course not!  I hope Suh all the best, no matter where he goes in the draft.  I wish him all the best, and I'm hoping he ends up being more like one of the 3 pro bowlers and not like the 5 who never made one.  But the only "sure thing" concerning the NFL draft is that we have no idea how any of these prospects will turn out once they enter the league.  There is no such thing as a sure thing...