Notre Dame vs. Connecticut Odds & Basketball Prediction: March 3rd 2010

Notre Dame vs. Connecticut
Free Pick: Notre Damme -1.5 (March 3rd 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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The Big East Conference has certainly lived up to its billing this season. The parity has been sensational once again with Syracuse being the only team that has pretty much dominated from start to finish. Five teams are separated by a game and a half in the middle of the pack and two of those teams square off tonight in South Bend. Just a short while ago, Connecticut was on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble but with three straight wins including victories against West Virginia and Villanova, the Huskies have snuck inside the group of 65. However a loss at home against Louisville in their last game has the questions coming up again about whether they should be in or not. As of right now, the projections still have Connecticut in but it is not by much. The home portion of the schedule is done and the Huskies will now have to win out on the road to keep their position and that is not going to be easy. They are 2-6 on the road this season and both of those wins came in their last two home games, including that game against Villanova but consistency remains an issue.

While Connecticut has been up and down, Notre Dame has had the same type of season and it is also making a strong statement to make it into the NCAA Tournament. Three straight losses in the middle of February likely had the Irish destined for the NIT but back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, the latter being a road thrashing on Saturday, has them knocking on the door. Notre Dame is 16-3 at home this season and this is the final home game of the year and for the careers of five seniors including Luke Harangody who is likely out for the remainder of the year. The fact that Notre Dame has held it together while he has been absent shows a lot about this team and it will not be going out without a fight. In this matchup, Notre Dame has advantages in several important statistical categories including offensive efficiency, overall efficiency, offensive shooting, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. That final category is important all the time, but even more so during the tournament and let’s face it, this is an early tournament game. The Irish have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.70 which is easily the best in the country and in home games, that rises to 1.91 which is almost unheard of in the college game. Conversely, the Huskies have a ratio of 0.75 in road games and that disparity is enormous. This is also a revenge game for the Irish who lost in Storrs by 12 points and that one was due to free throw shooting as Connecticut went to the line 15 more times, making 13 more of its attempts.

Don’t be surprised to see a reversal of that here. Play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that have covered the spread in two or more straight games with a line that is between +3 to -3 and now playing a team with a winning record below .600. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1997. 3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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