Australian Open Quarterfinal Predictions: Too Easy For Serena Williams

While seven of the world’s top 10 men will battle it out for a place in the semifinals at the Australian Open, things are a lot more diverse in the women’s draw.

The highest seed in the bottom half of the draw is No. 19 Nadia Petrova and there is a guarantee that at least one unseeded woman will make the final four.

The fourth round at Melbourne Park wasn’t kind to the top-ranked females this weekend.

No. 2 seed Dinara Safina was forced to pull out of her matchup with Russian Maria Kirilenko with a back injury in the closing moments of the opening set. No. 3 Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Nadia Petrova in three sets. No. 4 Caroline Wozniacki lost 6-4, 6-3 to Na Li. No. 9 Vera Zvonareva lost to Victoria Azarenka.

The only match that really went as expected was Serena Williams’ victory over Sam Stosur, although with the home crowd behind the Aussie, there was always a chance the world’s No. 13 could prevail.

With the second week of action well underway, let’s take a look at the women’s quarterfinal matchups.

Serena Williams against Victoria Azarenka

Williams will be taking part in her 11th Australian Open as she looks to win the first slam of the calendar year for the fifth time overall and for the third time in four years. She is as good at Melbourne Park as anywhere else on the planet and she holds a lifetime 48-6 record at the event.

Williams’ prowess on the faster hard courts of Melbourne is well documented.  In 2009 she reached the semifinal in all five of the hard court tournaments she participated in until the start of the European clay court season.

Last year, she ended with five straight wins at the end-of-season Tour Championship and her 2010 has started with a trip to the finals in Sydney. Things are looking auspicious for Williams, and there is no reason to believe she won’t be in the finals here too.

Williams has dropped just 15 games in her first four matches and she has rarely faced the threat of dropping a set. In fact, she’s not dropped her serve down under this year.

After comfortable victories in the first two rounds, Williams had little trouble dispatching No. 32 seed Carla Suarez Navarro in round three or Sam Stosur in round four. The defending champion dropped just seven points on serve against Stosur, hit 10 aces, had a 30-to-14 winners-to-unforced errors ratio, and won 12 of 13 points at the net.

I made Williams my choice for the title before the tournament and I’ve seen nothing to think anyone will be able to beat her. She’s the only seed inside the top five still left and one of only three players from the top 16. A semifinal with her sister Venus is still very much on the cards.

Azarenka finished 2009 inside the top-10 for the first time, and her No. 7 ranking is well deserved, especially considering how quickly she is improving on the hard surfaces.

Last year she won her first three singles titles, all on hard courts, including Brisbane, Memphis, and Miami, where she claimed her first scalp over a reigning No. 1 player by defeating Williams.

She has a nice touch around the net and above-average court coverage. Her backhand is one of the best on the tour but she needs pinpoint control on a less-than-dominating first serve if she is to really challenge Williams.

She defeated all four of the current top seeds at some point last season, so know that she has the game to get into the final four. Azarenka cruised into the fourth round with straight sets victories over Stephanie Cohen-Aloro, Stefanie Voegele, and Tathiana Garbin.

Her first real test was always going to come against Zvonareva, who she had never taken a set off in four attempts. After a wobbly start where she blew five break points and hit 22 unforced errors, Azarenka grew as the match progressed, resulting in a 4-6, 6-4, 6-0 victory in just under two-and-a-half hours.

Azarenka is no pushover and she defeated Williams last summer in Miami, but the American is playing too well right now. Expect Williams to knock the Belarusian out of the Australian Open for the third consecutive year.

Prediction: Williams in straight sets.

Na Li against Venus Williams

Na Li is following up her strong end to 2009 with back-to-back appearances in Grand Slam quarterfinals for the first time in her career.

The 27-year-old had her first top-20 finish in 2009, buoyed by a fourth-round exit at Roland Garros and quarterfinal at the US Open, and she was rewarded handsomely with a top 16 rank here in Melbourne.

While 2010 started on the wrong note for Li (a first round loss in Auckland to Estonian Kaia Kanepi and second round loss in Sydney to Flavia Pennetta) Li has led a quiet, if sometimes charmed, life at the Australian Open.

After a comfortable win over No. 252 Marina Erakovic, Li had to save match points against unseeded Agnes Szavay in round two. She then needed three sets and more than two hours to edge past world No. 22 Daniela Hantuchova before creeping past an out-of-sorts Caroline Wozniacki—who hit just three winners—6-4, 6-3.

Venus Williams on the other hand entered the tournament without a competitive match under her belt and has looked shaky in patches in each of her last three contests. Still, things have been relatively smooth overall.

After a comfortable opener against Lucie Safarova, Williams was able to get by Sybille Bammer and Aussie favourite Casey Dellacqua without ever really moving into top gear.

She faced strong tests in the second sets of both match, but you always expected she would have enough power and experience to get through should the match have gone the distance.

Her first real test came in the fourth round against Francesca Schiavone. Williams fell a set behind before really turning things up a notch. She cut down on her errors and found her groove in the second set when Schiavone’s game went off the boil.

It was always going to be hard for the Italian to maintain her high level of play and Williams grew as the match wore on.

Li and Williams have only met once before—in the quarterfinal of the 2008 Olympic Games in China where Li, then ranked 42nd, won 7-5, 7-5.

Both women are pretty evenly matched in terms of style. Li is most comfortable playing from the back of the court where she likes to explode with her double-handed backhand. She hits shots hard and flat from both wings and her doubles’ history makes her capable at the net, much like Williams.

Expect Williams to play with more variety in her game and to venture forward more when given the chance. Li will need to eliminate her unforced errors if she wants to stay in the match, and she will need to do a much better job holding serve if she even expects the match to go into a third set.

Williams too will have to play to a high ability to advance to the semifinals. She can’t afford to fizzle out like she has done in the second and third round, and she will have to hope that her continuing involvement in the doubles tournament doesn’t tire her out in the Aussie heat.

Prediction: Williams in straight sets.

Justine Henin against Nadia Petrova

Things certainly haven’t come easy to Henin in Melbourne, so nobody can begrudge her spot in the quarterfinals. She has defeated three top 32 players in her last three matches, including No. 5 seed Elena Dementieva.

Because of Henin’s wildcard entry to the competition, nobody knew where she would end up in the draw. While it was clear she was always going to be one of the two most dangerous floaters in the draw, it was also apparent that she could meet a top seed early on.

And that’s how it went. After defeating compatriot Kirsten Flipkens in round one, Henin surprised a lot of people with a hard-fought straight sets win over Dementieva in round two.

Henin then fought from a set down in her third round encounter with No. 27 seed Alisa Kleybanova before winning another tight three setter against world No. 15 Yanina Wickmayer on Sunday.

A spot against an unseeded semifinalist awaits Henin if she can beat No. 19 Petrova. Henin leads their head-to-head 12-2, including a 7-5, 7-5 win in Brisbane three weeks ago.

But don’t count Petrova out—she has played some of her best tennis in her last two matches and she has shown just how dangerous she can be. If you need reminding, it was Petrova who embarrassed Kim Clijsters in the third round 6-0, 6-1 in just 52 minutes.

Petrova also knocked off No. 3 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova in the fourth round, so she is definitely peaking at the right time after a so-so start to the year. She will need to be more patient against Henin, especially when balls keep coming back at her, but I believe that if she does she will head to her first Grand Slam final.

Prediction: Petrova in three.

Jie Zheng against Maria Kirilenko

Zheng has reached the quarterfinal of a Major for the first time in her life and, looking at the draw, she may never have a better opportunity to get to a final.

The unseeded Russian stands in her way but, like Kirilenko, she has had to beat a string of top players to even make it this far.

After an early scare against Shuai Peng in round one, Zheng defeated No. 24 Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez in round two, No. 11 Marion Bartoli in the round three, and No. 31 Alona Bondarenko in round four. She lost the opening set in each of her first three matches, and her victory over Bondarenko was the only one that didn’t go the distance.

Zheng doesn’t have a great number of weapons, but nobody has apparently told her that. Her backhand is still her strongest shot and what she lacks in raw power she makes up for in court coverage and foot speed. She is 4-1 lifetime against Kirilenko and she’s won their last three meetings.

In much the same way as Zheng, nobody predicted that Kirilenko would be fighting for a spot in the semifinals when the draw was released.

Her first round match against Maria Sharapova was highlighted more for the allure of two of the sport’s glamour girls clashing than for its potential for an upset. But an upset there was as Kirilenko won in three sets.

A favourable draw meant that Kirilenko would not have to meet another seed until round four. That seed was world No. 2 Dinara Safina. Again, Kirilenko entered the contest as the underdog, but she started off strongly in the first set and was awarded the victory when Safina was unable to continue because of back pains.

No longer a top-32 player, the 22-year-old Russian currently sits at No. 63 in the world. She was a finalist in Barcelona last year as well as a semifinalist in Seoul, and she improved in Grand Slams throughout the season, making it to the third round of the US Open last September.

Kirilenko’s game is suited to the harder courts and she has a fair chance at making it into the semis. She will need to continue to serve well and to remain focused, but if she comes out of the gates like she did against Safina there’s no reason she can’t go one more round.

Carla Suarez Navarro was the surprise package 12 months ago—it appears Zheng has taken up the charge in 2010.

Prediction: Zheng in three.