Deep Breath, Everyone: Too Early To Take Halladay Mega-Deal for Granted

The baseball world is abuzz tonight with talk of the apparently imminent blockbuster trade between the Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners. Reportedly, the deal is all but done, and it will include Toronto ace Roy Halladay, as well as Phillies star left-handed pitcher Cliff Lee, who will go to Seattle in the deal.

If and when it happens, the three-team swap will be both momentous and fascinating. It could dramatically alter the power structure of, especially, the American League West division, and possibly the National league East as well. It does seem likely to eventually happen, too, so one can hardly fault the national media, as well as local fans of each team, for racing to quantify the impact of the exchange.

However understandable, though, the furor is undeniably premature. No two sources seem to agree on the non-principals in the deal, and in fact, some sources even continue to change their own estimates of what each team will or will not receive in terms of prospects and throw-in talent.

Among the names most commonly tossed about, Seattle's Phillippe Aumont seems a sure bet to move, though conflicting reports have him landing in Philadelphia and Toronto. Philadelphia catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud also seems to be a locked-in part of the deal.

For the Phillies, Dominic Brown, J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek have all been mentioned as possible movers, which should raise red flags for those who remember the list of GM Ruben Amaro's "untouchables" in a Halladay deal during the summer. All three young Philadelphia players appeared on that list. Both Brandon Morrow and Carlos Triunfel, two of Seattle's top prospects, are reportedly involved, though in what capacity, it is not yet clear. 

With so much uncertainty still swirling, it is too early to say with any sort of confidence that it will ever come to full fruition. Deals much closer to completion have fallen apart, as the Boston Red Sox can attest (see Lowell, Mike; Rodriguez, Alex).

In the end, most expect the deal will come together, and this reporter has no reason to dispute those much better-informed opinions. In the interim, though, it would be wise for all involved to exercise a certain cautious optimism, at least until the identities of the trade's spare parts begin to crystallize. If there is one thing everyone would be wise to learn from Boston, after all, it is that a media firestorm is the surest way to throw a wrench into viable trade proceedings.