NFL Division-by-Division Rankings After 1st Week of 2022 Free Agency

One week into free agency, the 2022 offseason has already shifted the balance of power in several divisions. 

Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack are among the biggest names who will wear different jerseys next season.

As usual, some divisions have come out of the process looking stronger than others, which means not all paths to the playoffs are created equal.

Let's take a look at how the divisions stack up through the early stages of the offseason. These rankings are based on each team's general strength, using Super Bowl odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, and the number of squads that could make the postseason.

Our order also gives preference to divisions that are balanced with playoff-caliber teams from top to bottom while penalizing divisions that have one or more rebuilding teams.

8. AFC South

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You know things are bad when Carson Wentz leaves the division and the quarterback situation in the group gets considerably worse. The AFC South is a mess with just one potential Super Bowl contender, a fringe playoff team and two franchises in a rebuild.

The Tennessee Titans are still likely to be the division's scariest team. They have the most proven returning quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and found a way to bring back Harold Landry III in free agency. There's also the return of a (hopefully healthy) Derrick Henry following last season's foot surgery. They didn't do anything splashy, but there's something to be said for continuity and development.

Frank Reich's Indianapolis Colts were a fringe playoff team last year, and a meltdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the final week of the season kept them out of the playoffs. The franchise's biggest move was to trade Wentz to the Washington Commanders, but it leaves the Colts in an even murkier quarterback situation.

The rebuilding Jaguars were among the most splashy teams in free agency. They handed out big contracts to receiver Christian Kirk, offensive lineman Brandon Scherff, tight end Evan Engram and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun. That spending spree makes the team more talented, but until we see how the players jell, it's hard to get too excited.

And of course, under new head coach Doug Pederson, everything hinges on the development of 2021 No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence.

The Houston Texans went on a spending spree in last year's free agency. This year, they were much quieter, demonstrating a commitment to rebuilding through the draft. Following the trade of quarterback Deshaun Watson to Cleveland for a package that includes three first-round picks, it's going to be a while before they can be expected to be a threat.

7. NFC North

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Unless the Minnesota Vikings are markedly improved under new head coach Kevin O'Connell, Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields shows he can elevate a franchise or the Detroit Lions stop being, well, the Lions, this division is the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers and not much else.

The Packers have to be considered one of the biggest winners of the offseason. They didn't add much, but they retained Rodgers on offense and De'Vondre Campbell on defense. They traded Davante Adams, but getting a first- and second-round pick out of a player who made it known he didn't want to play in Green Bay on the franchise tag affords them the ability to recoup some of the lost production.

Minnesota is a threat to make the playoffs. The Vikings found a way to retain some flexibility at the cost of committing to quarterback Kirk Cousins for an additional season. With O'Connell replacing Mike Zimmer, they will see if a change in coaching can get more out of a talented roster that includes wide receiver Justin Jefferson and running back Dalvin Cook.

The Bears have been relatively quiet in free agency. New general manager Ryan Poles has done more to tear down the roster for the rebuild than he has actually rebuilt. While he initially signed Larry Ogunjobi before the defensive tackle reportedly failed a physical, Poles also shipped off Khalil Mack to the Chargers and hasn't re-signed Akiem Hicks.

The Fields era brings the franchise hope, but it isn't necessarily built for a quick turnaround.

The Lions are in a similar boat—they just don't have the exciting quarterback prospect. They've been relatively quiet outside signing DJ Chark Jr., but they have plenty of draft capital in which to put their hope, including the No. 2 overall pick and another first-rounder from the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff swap.

6. NFC South

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Had Tom Brady not come out of his brief retirement, it's possible this division would have been at the bottom of the list. It's telling that Watson was considering three of the teams in this group. His choice to spurn the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons to go to Cleveland leaves three of the four franchises in the division with serious quarterback questions.

The group's elite contender is right back in the thick of things, though. Since Brady announced his return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for one more year, they've prepped for another Super Bowl run by retaining wideout Chris Godwin, center Ryan Jensen and cornerback Carlton Davis while adding guard Shaq Mason and receiver Russell Gage to the offense.

The Saints once again managed a cap situation that looked grim at the beginning of the offseason to field a strong roster. They lost safety Marcus Williams to Baltimore but will replace some of that production with Marcus Maye, who signed a three-year deal after beginning his career with the Jets.

After the team missed out on Watson, Jameis Winston is expected to be "back in play" for New Orleans, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. Winston makes them a potential playoff team but doesn't raise the ceiling the same way Watson would have.

Failing to acquire Watson is even more dire for Atlanta, as a franchise that should commit to a rebuild is left with an aging quarterback. It also lost Gage to a division rival in Tampa. Now, 36-year-old signal-caller Matt Ryan has one fewer weapon. The best thing the team did in the first week was re-signing kicker Younghoe Koo.

It's also hard to get excited about the Panthers. After going 5-12 last season, their incoming free-agent class is defined by a collection of solid-not-great veterans. The draft isn't likely to give much help either. They have the No. 6 pick but aren't scheduled to get back on the clock until pick No. 137.

5. NFC East

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The NFC East has been one of the weaker divisions for a while. However, the Dallas Cowboys are the only team in the division that didn't get better in 2022.

The reigning division champs were tasked with balancing a small budget and a huge class of free agents. That led to some questionable decisions, including trading Amari Cooper to the Browns. They also watched Randy Gregory sign with the Denver Broncos after originally agreeing to a deal with the Cowboys.

It's hard to feel like they did anything but tread water at best.

The Philadelphia Eagles might not have made a ton of signings, but bringing in linebacker Haason Reddick fills a serious need, they have three first-round draft picks and they are bringing back the young core that went 9-8 and made the playoffs in Nick Sirianni's first year.

Carson Wentz's stock isn't high after he and the Colts couldn't beat the Jaguars in Week 18 to make the playoffs. But there's no denying he's an upgrade at quarterback for the Commanders. His passer rating of 94.6 would be the highest of any Washington quarterback since Kirk Cousins in 2016. That will raise the ceiling for a Commanders team that has won seven games the past two years and still has plenty of young talent on defense.

The Giants have the dimmest outlook, but they at least brought in a coach in Brian Daboll who gives the offense hope. The fifth and seventh picks in the draft should help too. They can bring in two difference-makers with those selections.

4. AFC East

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The AFC East isn't all that different from the NFC East, but it has one key difference: Their Super Bowl contender, the Buffalo Bills, has the best odds to win it all at +650.

Their status has only been improved by free agency. The headliner is obviously edge-rusher Von Miller. He showed how much he could mean to a contender with the Rams last season by posting five sacks in eight games and another four during the postseason run.

But defensive tackle Tim Settle, tight end O.J. Howard and guard Rodger Saffold are all underrated free agents who could thrive in bigger roles. They won't make headlines in March, but they will make a difference in December and January.

The New England Patriots' hopes in 2022 will hinge on the development of quarterback Mac Jones. After their spending spree in 2021, their 2022 offseason has been characterized by departures. With No. 1 corner J.C. Jackson going to the Chargers and the team trading offensive lineman Shaq Mason to the Buccaneers, they won't see a net-positive in free agency after going 10-7.

The Miami Dolphins said they were committed to Tua Tagovailoa going into the offseason and have stuck to their word. They didn't get involved in the Watson sweepstakes and have made moves to give the quarterback the best shot at success. Most notably, they enhanced his protection and weaponry with guard Connor Williams and receiver Cedrick Wilson, both former Cowboys.

Robert Saleh's Jets have a long way to go toward legitimacy in his second season as head coach, but they cut the talent gap in free agency. Cornerback D.J. Reed and safety Jordan Whitehead give them major upgrades in the secondary, while bringing in guard Laken Tomlinson and tight end C.J. Uzomah are moves second-year quarterback Zach Wilson should like.

3. NFC West

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The NFC West supplied both teams in the NFC Championship Game, and the division should be another three-horse race in 2022.

That starts with the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, who'll look to make another run. In the receiving corps, they'll get a healthy Robert Woods back from a torn ACL, but they also added Allen Robinson II and still hope to re-sign Odell Beckham Jr., per Adam Schefter of ESPN.

The San Francisco 49ers improved their secondary by adding cornerback Charvarius Ward. That will be important as they try to beat the loaded Rams offense for division supremacy. The Laken Tomlinson and D.J. Jones departures will hurt them in the offensive and defensive trenches, respectively. None of those losses is enough to predict a large drop-off from the squad that appeared in the conference title game, though.

Still, the quarterback situation is a question. The team is reportedly working with Jimmy Garoppolo to figure out a deal to send him to a new team. Trey Lance certainly raises the ceiling while lowering the floor of the team.

The Arizona Cardinals stumbled late to finish 11-6, but this is still a roster that started the season 9-2. They'll have to deal with the losses of sack artist Chandler Jones and receiver Christian Kirk. Rondale Moore is the likely answer for Kirk, but they need to find another pass-rusher to replace Jones.

The Seattle Seahawks are the only real downer of the bunch. With quarterback Russell Wilson and defensive mainstay Bobby Wagner gone, they have officially moved on from every piece of the 2013 championship team. Still, they acquired the assets to facilitate a quick turnaround.

If—and this is a big if—general manager John Schneider can utilize his new-found draft capital and figure out a solution other than Drew Lock at quarterback, they could be a plucky underdog.

2. AFC North

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The AFC West might have dominated the headlines early in the week, but the AFC North made a strong push late. Deshaun Watson's shocking decision to choose the Cleveland Browns as his next team had a seismic impact.

It saw the Browns rise to the top of the Super Bowl odds (+1400) within the division. It helps that they didn't give up any players in the trade, they dealt for a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Amari Cooper and they kept David Njoku on the franchise tag.

They'll have to contend with the Cincinnati Bengals. Lost in Cincy's Super Bowl run is the fact that they only went 10-7 and were ahead of schedule in terms of building around Joe Burrow. And after watching their quarterback deal with constant pressure, they beefed up the interior of the offensive line with Alex Cappa and Ted Karras.

The Baltimore Ravens shouldn't be discounted, though. Before Lamar Jackson's ankle injury, they were 8-4 and a virtual lock for the playoffs. They ended the season on a six-game losing streak, but that included five losses by three points or fewer. Adding safety Marcus Williams to a secondary that will get healthy versions of corners Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey means they will be scary again in 2022.

Mitchell Trubisky won't significantly shift the Pittsburgh Steelers' overall fortunes, but it's fair to think the quarterback will be an upgrade over the version of Ben Roethlisberger they had last season. Trubisky was just one part of an uncharacteristic spending spree that saw them sign over $80 million in contracts.

1. AFC West

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The Las Vegas Raiders signed Chandler Jones and traded for Davante Adams and still have the worst odds to win the Super Bowl in the division. That really tells the story of the AFC West.

The presence of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has created an arms race in the division that has seen several offseason-defining moves.

The Chiefs are still the favorite in the division. They don't have much financial flexibility to make big offseason moves, but they still found a way to retain Orlando Brown Jr. on the franchise tag and sign Justin Reid to fill safety Tyrann Mathieu's shoes. The most important thing is they are losing no major free agents on a team that has already shown it can win it all.

In terms of Super Bowl odds, the Broncos leapfrogged the Chargers with the acquisition of quarterback Russell Wilson. That wasn't cheap, but they still have the offensive weapons in receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton and running back Javonte Williams to complement a talented defense that now has Randy Gregory.

The Chargers had a ton of salary-cap space to build around quarterback Justin Herbert and his rookie contract. They were aggressive in spending it too. Not only did they retain receiver Mike Williams, but they also acquired three defensive difference-makers in cornerback J.C. Jackson, linebacker Khalil Mack and tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day. In other words, they went all-in on contending with the Broncos and Chiefs.

The Raiders took a team that went 10-7 and switched out edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue and receiver Zay Jones for Chandler Jones and Davante Adams. Yet, there's still an argument to be made that they are the worst team in the division. That's a four-team group with historic levels of depth.

             

All reported signings via NFL.com's free-agency tracker unless otherwise noted.

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