Josh McDaniels Is Ultimate Risk-Reward Hire for the Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders won 10 games in 2021 and made the postseason for the first time since 2016, but that wasn't enough to save the job of general manager Mike Mayock or earn interim head coach Rich Bisaccia the full-time gig. Instead, the Raiders have decided to try out The Patriot Way.

On Sunday, the Raiders announced that they hired New England Patriots director of player personnel Dave Ziegler as Mayock's replacement. Meanwhile, they are hiring longtime Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their next head coach, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

On one hand, McDaniels is a well-respected offensive mind with head coaching experience who played a role in all six of New England's Super Bowl wins. On the other hand, McDaniels' tenure as head coach of the Denver Broncos was mostly a disaster, and calling his hiring-that-wasn't as head coach of the Indianapolis Colts a debacle doesn't do it justice.

If things work out, this hire could mean big things for Derek Carr and the Raiders offense, which struggled to produce consistently in recent seasons. But given McDaniels' past, this is also a risky move that could just as easily blow up in the Raiders' face.

There's little question that McDaniels is one of the more well-respected young offensive coaches in the league. After Charlie Weis left the Pats following the 2004 season, McDaniels became the team's de facto offensive coordinator before officially earning the title the following season.

After the Patriots missed the Super Bowl for two straight seasons (gasp), McDaniels coordinated their offense during their undefeated 2007 regular season. That New England team sported one of the most prolific offenses of all time, averaging more than 411 yards and almost 37 points per game.

Stew Milne/Associated Press

McDaniels' finest work arguably came the following season. With Tom Brady on the shelf with a torn ACL, his Matt Cassel-led offense finished fifth in the NFL in total yards and eighth in points. It was McDaniels at his absolute best: crafting an offense around what his players do best rather than stubbornly cramming square pegs into round holes in the interest of running "his" scheme.

In November, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick compared McDaniels' approach to Alabama head coach Nick Saban while speaking with reporters:

"It's kind of like Saban when we were in Cleveland. Nick knew what every player on the field was doing. He knew what the guard keys were. He knew what the running back was keying. He knew what the nose guard was doing. He knew what everybody on the field was doing.

"Josh is kind of the same way. He knows what all 11 guys are doing on offense, what their keys are, what their adjustments are and all that. And he knows defensively how the guy is taught to play certain blocks or routes or reads and how to attack them."

McDaniels appears to be enamored with Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, too. 

"For McDaniels, he now inherits a quarterback in Derek Carr that he has always liked," Rapoport said on NFL GameDay. "In fact, the Patriots considered trying to trade for Carr before the season. Now, McDaniels and Ziegler get him."

McDaniels has a quarterback he reportedly likes. A quality running back in Josh Jacobs. One of the league's most dangerous tight ends in Darren Waller. And an excellent slot receiver in Hunter Renfrow.

The Raiders need help on the outside at wideout. And they need to improve an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranked 28th leaguewide this season. But the cupboard McDaniels is inheriting is hardly bare.

That's the good news. Now comes the bad news.

Long story short, McDaniels' first stint as a head coach in the NFL was a hot mess. His Broncos opened the 2009 season by peeling off six straight wins, but they lost eight of their final 10 games and missed the postseason.

McDaniels clashed with some veteran players in Denver from the get-go. Although quarterback Jay Cutler made the Pro Bowl in 2008, McDaniels wanted no part of him. A potential three-team deal that would have landed Cassel in Denver wrecked the relationship, and the Broncos eventually dealt Cutler to Chicago for Kyle "Really?" Orton and a package of picks.

By the final month of the 2010 season, the losses were piling up, both on the field and in the locker room. The Broncos and McDaniels were each fined by the league for illegally taping a practice session by the San Francisco 49ers in London. In early December, with the Broncos at 3-9 and McDaniels 12-16 as the team's head coach, he was fired.

And as bad as that was, things got that much worse in 2018.

It took a while, but another NFL team finally decided to give McDaniels a shot. On Feb. 6, 2018, the Indianapolis Colts announced McDaniels as their new head coach.

The two sides agreed to terms. The Colts scheduled an introductory press conference. Assistants left their teams to join McDaniels in Indy. All that was left was putting pen to paper.

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

And then McDaniels backed out of the job.

In December, McDaniels insisted that he has no regrets about how he handled things in 2018:

"I think every year, I have tried to learn and grow as a coach and as a person. You make decisions in life and in your career that you feel like are the best decisions for you and your family, which is certainly what happened then. You move forward and you do everything you can within your power to make those decisions the right ones. That's what I've tried to do every day. I certainly have no regrets about what has transpired since then."

McDaniels might not regret it, but it was a terrible look. As a result, Raiders players might question the commitment of their new head coach before he ever sets foot in the door. They could question whether his loyalties lie primarily with the Raiders or with himself.

Meanwhile, some Raiders players are "disappointed" that the wildly popular Bisaccia wasn't given the opportunity to continue on without the "interim" tag.

Maybe McDaniels has learned from the mistakes he made in Denver and Indianapolis. He has certainly shown the ability to craft a potent offense. Maybe he'll assemble a quality staff, delegate where appropriate and make the most of this next (and perhaps last) chance to be a head coach. He also presumably doesn't have the level of personnel control in Vegas that he did in Denver.

But this feels an awful lot like yet another team trying to duplicate that which cannot be duplicated: New England's two decades of dominance over the AFC.

And that hasn't come close to working yet.