2020-21 NFL MVP: Updated Predictions and Odds Entering Divisional Round

While teams battled it out to advance to the divisional round over Wild Card Weekend, the likely NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a week off. 

The 2020 season saw Derrick Henry rush for 2,000 yards, Josh Allen become a star and Russell Wilson cook (for half a season anyway). Yet, the most up-to-date odds reflect a runaway MVP race that will almost certainly go to the Packers quarterback. 

Wilson was the favorite over the first half of the season. Henry put forth as compelling a case as a running back has in recent memory, and Josh Allen elevated his play to MVP-caliber in most years. But Rodgers' efficiency and precision in leading the Packers to the No. 1 seed in the NFC has given him a commanding lead in the eyes of oddsmakers. 

Here's a look at the latest odds and a breakdown of the race, including why Rodgers is the prohibitive favorite. 

2020-21 NFL MVP Odds

Aaron Rodgers -2000

Patrick Mahomes +1600

Josh Allen +2500

Derrick Henry +5000

Odds via Oddschecker

Breakdown

Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press

The MVP really comes down to two things: individual stats and team success. Rodgers emphatically checks off both boxes. 

After an offseason in which the Packers didn't seem to utilize their draft picks to build around their 37-year-old quarterback and instead drafted his heir apparent in Jordan Love, Rodgers has posted the best season of his storied career. 

Rodgers posted numbers that you'd be hard-pressed to duplicate in madden, leading the league in touchdowns (48), passer rating (121.5) and completion percentage (70.7 percent) all while throwing just five interceptions. That's the lowest total in the league among qualified passers. 

The completion percentage and touchdown numbers are both career-highs for Rodgers, which includes MVP campaigns in 2011 and 2014. 

Should Rodgers win the award, it would be his third and tie him with fellow Packers legend Brett Favre as well as Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas and Tom Brady. Only Peyton Manning has won the award more as a five-time winner. 

Rodgers recently spoke on what it would mean to join that elite group. 

"To be able to join that group would be really special. And a lot of times people will talk about, like, 'I don't want to talk about awards,' or whatnot. I just don't really subscribe to that," he told Brett Favre on SiriusXM NFL Radio. "We're more competitors first, and getting recognition for what we do is special, and it feels good."

That means Mahomes will likely have to wait his turn to join the ranks of multiple winners. The 25-year-old made a strong case with 38 touchdowns to six interceptions while spearheading the offense for a team that went 14-1 in his 15 starts. 

Mahomes isn't going anywhere, and showed he will be a constant threat for the award he won in 2018 for the foreseeable future. 

Josh Allen, however, is a newcomer in the race. He set franchise records for passing yards (4,544) and passing touchdowns (45) while chipping in an additional 421 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. His running prowess and ability to punch it in on the goal-line offered something to his team that Rodgers doesn't. 

As a team, the Bills won the AFC East for the first time since 1995. If he can continue playing at this level, there will be some fun MVP races between him and Mahomes in the near future. 

It's been eight years since a non-quarterback has won the MVP award. Adrian Peterson won in 2012 while Shaun Alexander (2005) and LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) won it in back-to-back years. 

Derrick Henry put on a season that would have put him in the conversation in some years. He finished with over 2,000 rushing yards, which was just the eighth time in history a running back has surpassed the milestone. Neither Alexander or Tomlinson did it in their MVP seasons. 

Henry's rushing was the cornerstone of the Titans offense that won the AFC South despite a defense that ranked 25th in defensive efficiency. 

While Rodgers winning seems to be inevitable, there will be some intrigue in the order of the vote. Allen's emergence was one of the biggest stories of the season, so it might give him an edge in being the official runner-up, while it will be interesting to see how much consideration Henry got. 

Predicted MVP Voting

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Josh Allen

3. Patrick Mahomes

4. Derrick Henry