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2021 NFL Free Agents: Rumors, Predictions for Potential Offseason Targets

Kristopher KnoxDec 30, 2020

As we head into the final week of the regular season, 18 teams remain alive for the NFL playoffs. Four of those teams will see their seasons ended on Sunday, and another 14 franchises are already just playing out the schedule.

While the 14 teams that make the playoffs will continue on with game-day preparations, you can bet that all 32 franchises have at least one eye on the looming offseason. The 2021 edition of free agency is going to be loaded with notable names and potential team-altering talent.

Here, we'll examine some of the latest free-agency buzz and relevant predictions for the coming offseason.

Let's dig in!

Mitchell Trubisky Could Be Back in Chicago Next Season

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The Chicago Bears declined Mitchell Trubisky's fifth-year option, meaning that the 2017 first-round pick is scheduled to become a free agent in the offseason. When he was benched for Nick Foles early in 2020, his departure felt like a foregone conclusion.

However, since Trubisky was reinserted into the starting lineup in Week 12, that perception has started to shift. The Bears are now on a three-game winning streak, and Trubisky is playing like a franchise quarterback should.

Trubisky has produced a passer rating above 97.0 in each of his last four games. Considering his career rating sits at just 87.4, that's a marked improvement. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, other NFL executives believe that Trubisky's resurgence will force Chicago to at least consider re-signing him.

"In the eyes of some NFL executives, Trubisky recently has played some of the best football of his career, making a case as to why Chicago will need to consider re-signing him," Schefter wrote.

Bringing Trubisky back would make sense for a couple of reasons. For one, it would eliminate the learning curve of another free-agent quarterback like Cam Newton, Philip Rivers or Jacoby Brissett. Secondly, the Bears still have a shot at making the playoffs this year. They're not likely to have a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the 2021 draft.

If Chicago can convince Trubisky to return on a short-term and perhaps incentive-laden deal, it could be a win-win for both parties. Trubisky would get another opportunity to prove that he can be the guy in Chicago, while the Bears would get a chance to build on their late-2020 success.

Prediction: Trubisky signs a two-year deal with the Bears.

Could Carson Wentz Land in Indianapolis?

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Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has lost his starting job to rookie Jalen Hurts, at least for the time being. However, trading him in the offseason seems borderline impossible, as he'll have more than $59 million in dead money remaining on his contract.

Some have suggested that the Indianapolis Colts could be a trade destination, though, which would then impact their free-agency decision on Rivers and other potential quarterbacks.

"I kept watching this game and thinking, 'You know who would really help both these teams? Carson Wentz,'" FS1's Colin Cowherd said of Sunday's Pittsburgh Steelers and Colts game on The Herd.

This fits with the idea some executives have about Rivers' future in Indianapolis. At least one believes that Indy will look for its long-term quarterback this offseason.

"[Rivers] can still play, but mobility is an issue. They've been pretty methodical and waiting for the right time to strike. This could be the time," an unnamed AFC executive said, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.

Financially investing in Wentz and then spending a year or more trying to rebuild him into a franchise quarterback doesn't make a ton of sense for the Colts, though. They're in a position to win sooner than later, and if they're going with a project at quarterback, it would make more sense to look to the draft.

For Indianapolis, targeting a developmental quarterback in the draft and making one more go with Rivers would be the more logical choice.

Prediction: Colts re-sign Rivers to a one-year deal.

Von Miller Could Hit the Free-Agent Market

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While there will be some notable quarterbacks available in free agency, that's not the only deep position we're going to see. Edge-rusher is another spot where multiple quality players will be available. From Shaquil Barrett and Matt Judon to Leonard Williams and Justin Houston, several high-end sack-artists are slated to hit the open market.

There's a chance that Denver Broncos star Von Miller joins them. The Broncos have a club option for Miller in 2021, and The Athletic's Lindsay Jones believes that Denver will choose to let him walk.

"Unless Miller is so determined to remain in Denver that he'd do so at a much-reduced salary, I would expect him to be playing elsewhere next year," Jones wrote.

Miller is slated to earn $17.5 million in base salary if his option is exercised. That's a lot of money for a rebuilding team to swallow when the 31-year-old Miller may not be around for the long-term. Denver isn't a playoff team now and may not be one in 2021. By the time the Broncos are ready to contend, Miller could be well past his prime.

As Jones suggested, bringing back Miller could make sense if he's willing to restructure his contract to a more team-friendly deal. However, Miller's window for signing a significant big-money deal in free agency is closing.

If Miller wants to maximize his earnings, he'll probably refuse a pay cut and try entering the market this offseason. Unless the Broncos believe that they're closer to contention than their 5-10 record might suggest, that's exactly what's likely to happen.

Prediction: Denver doesn't exercise its club option, releasing Miller to the free-agent player pool.

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The Salary Cap May Not Drop as Much as Initially Thought

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One potential problem with having an abundance of attractive free agents is that there may not be enough cap space available for all of them. The NFL is expected to see a sizeable drop in the league-wide cap limit because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, the NFL is also slated to add a 17th regular-season game to the equation, which will boost revenue and, in turn, put some cap dollars back on to the proverbial table.

According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport, the extra game will mean more media money for the NFL:

"The cap is still likely to drop significantly in 2021, per sources, but the 17th game as part of a new media deal could boost it above that $175 million floor. The union's share of all revenue already was set to bump up from 47 percent to 48 percent in 2021, and the move to 17 games with a new media deal triggers a 'media kicker' on top of it that further increases players' share."

Teams will still have to be more budget-conscious than they were in 2020—the Eagles are projected to be more than $64 million over the cap, for example. However, franchises may not have to tighten their belts quite as much as previously feared.

There should still be enough money available for the top players to get paid on the open market, even if they aren't all getting market-setting deals.

Prediction: The cap falls from the 2020 $198.2 million mark but not all the way to the $175 million floor set by the NFL.

*Contract and cap information via Spotrac

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