Fantasy Football Week 16: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

In the majority of fantasy football leagues, this is it.

In Week 16, two teams will enter the fantasy Thunderdome. One will emerge with the title of champion. The other gets coal in their stocking.

That means every lineup decision is especially critical. There's nothing more frustrating than looking at a player sitting on your bench who would have been the difference between victory and defeat. It's enough to turn the jolliest of souls into a Grinch.

Relax, Rudolph. I'm here to save Christmas.

As I have every week in 2020, I have looked through lineup questions on the Bleacher Report app and selected some to answer in an effort to help fantasy managers set the best possible lineup.

Let's deck some halls.

Backfield Blues

From the Bleacher Report App

Plenty of fantasy managers have issues at running back this week, especially after injuries knocked a few starters out in Week 15.

The easiest call among this bunch is the back who did the least in Week 15. Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders didn't even gain three yards per carry in a plus matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers, but he received 26 carries. The Miami Dolphins have been a bottom-10 fantasy matchup for running backs, but Jacobs' unquestioned bellcow status (and the touches that come with it) are too appealing to pass up.

So is the matchup for Giovani Bernard of the Cincinnati Bengals. Prior to last week, Bernard hadn't done much as the lead back in Cincy. But that changed in Monday's stunning win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, when he peeled off 97 total yards and two scores on 26 touches. No team in the AFC has allowed more PPR points to the position than the Houston Texans, and after his big game against the Steelers, the Bengals should heavily feature Bernard this week.

With a DraftKings salary south of $5,000, Bernard is a value play in DFS as well.

We don't yet know if Ezekiel Elliott (calf) of the Dallas Cowboys will play in Week 16. But Myles Gaskin of the Dolphins is back at practice and off the COVID-19 list. Gaskin may not automatically reclaim lead back duties for the Dolphins, but it does add enough doubt to Ahmed's workload to slide Tony Pollard past him and into the No. 3 spot.

In any event, the flex spot belongs to Detroit Lions wideout Marvin Jones Jr. His target share the past month has been equal parts robust and steady. In three of the past four contests, Jones has been targeted a dozen times, and he has averaged 11 looks over that four-game stretch.

The Call: Josh Jacobs (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,600), Giovani Bernard (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,800), Marvin Jones (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,900)

Quarterback Quartet

From the Bleacher Report App

Ah, the joys of rolling into championship week with a pile of blah at quarterback.

These quarterbacks at least come with good Week 16 matchups. All four square off against teams that rank in the top 10 in fantasy points per game allowed under center.

Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions is the first player crossed off here. The 32-year-old isn't anywhere close to 100 percent, and he faces a fierce Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rush this week while playing behind a bad offensive line.

Mitchell Trubisky of the Chicago Bears is out, too. He's been playing well since he reclaimed the starting job, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are horrendous defensively. But in two of his last three games, Trubisky has only one touchdown pass. The fantasy ceiling just isn't there.

That leaves two contenders: Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins and Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams. Tagovailoa has been the more productive option as of late, ranking ninth among fantasy signal-callers since Week 13.

But the play here is Goff, largely because we've already seen what happens when the Rams and Seattle Seahawks play this season. Goff didn't throw a touchdown pass in that Week 10 game, but he topped 300 passing yards in a Rams win.

The Rams are healthier at wide receiver than the Dolphins are, and they're better at throwing the ball overall. Goff offers the best combination of ceiling and floor of this bunch.

The Call: Jared Goff (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)

The Kittle Konundrum

From the Bleacher Report App

We'll start with the back half of this question, because it's quite the pickle.

Fantasy managers who invested an early pick in San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle have been without his services since he broke his foot in Week 8. But the 27-year-old is back on the practice field, and Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan said Kittle will be out there Saturday against the Arizona Cardinals if he's physically able.

"If he's healthy, I just don't see the reason why not (to play him). That's the same with every other player on our roster. We would never ask him to play injured or anything like that, but he had a good week of practice last week. Most of the soreness has gone away and we're definitely going to test it again this week."

T.J. Hockenson of the Detroit Lions ranks fourth in PPR points among tight ends this year. But over the first seven weeks of the 2020 campaign, no tight end averaged more fantasy points per game than Kittle.

If he's active, you have to start him.

At quarterback, Tom Brady's matchup is tempting. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face a Detroit Lions team that has allowed the fifth-most points per game to quarterbacks this season. But over the past two weeks, Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens is the only quarterback with more fantasy points than Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Hurts has a lower fantasy floor than Brady. But the rookie's ability to run the ball (and the upside that comes with it) is worth the dice-roll in a must-win week.

The Call: Jalen Hurts (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,000), George Kittle (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000) 

Go Big or Go Home

From the Bleacher Report App

I can empathize with this app user's dilemma. I will be vying for a championship in two leagues this week as the No. 6 playoff seed, including a dynasty league where I made the postseason with a 6-7 record and am a yuge underdog.

However, there's something liberating about the underdog status. There's nothing to lose. If you get beat, you were supposed to. But if you win...

At quarterback, we've already addressed the choice between Jalen Hurts of the Eagles and Tom Brady of the Buccaneers. But adding Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans to the mix changes things. Watson lit up the Indianapolis Colts last week for 404 total yards, and he faces a Cincinnati Bengals team in Week 16 that isn't exactly on Indy's level defensively.

It's close between Watson and Hurts, but the former's track record wins out.

The running back call is an easy one. Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts faces a tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, but only two running backs have more PPR points per game than him over the past month.

In the flex spot, the wide receivers are out if Salvon Ahmed or Tony Pollard get another week of featured back duties. Rashard Higgins of the Cleveland Browns is the only one of the trio with a decent matchup. If Ezekiel Elliott and Myles Gaskin both play in Week 16, then T.Y. Hilton's ceiling wins out, but Pittsburgh isn't a much better matchup for wideouts than for running backs.

Of the two backs, Pollard gets the nod with Myles Gaskin back for the Dolphins.

On defense, both the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals have top-10 fantasy matchups in Week 16. The Saints are the superior defense, though, so they get the call against the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day.

The Call: Deshaun Watson (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,600), Jonathan Taylor (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,300), Tony Pollard (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,500), New Orleans Saints (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,200)

Making the Bold Call

From the Bleacher Report App

Having these kinds of options in a two-QB league goes a long way toward explaining why this team is in the championship game. There's no wrong answer here, but winning a title means making a bold call.

In this case, that means sitting Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.

Jalen Hurts of the Eagles has produced at an elite level over the past two weeks and draws the best matchup of the group. Kyler Murray vs. Allen is essentially a toss-up, but the Arizona Cardinals have a better matchup this week than the Bills.

Against the New England Patriots (who are allowing the third-fewest points per game to quarterbacks) in Week 8, Allen had a rushing score. But he managed only 154 passing yards and didn't throw a touchdown.

At wide receiver, the "decision" isn't one. Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers is nursing a hamstring injury and clearly wasn't 100 percent last week against the Raiders. But if Allen is active, he plays. It's that simple.

The running back call is a matter of matchup. Darrell Henderson Jr. of the Rams is facing a Seahawks team that has surrendered the 10th-most PPR points to running backs. But Leonard Fournette and the Buccaneers face a tissue-soft Detroit Lions defense that leads the league in points allowed to the position.

That's the sort of gravy that makes Christmas all the merrier.

The Call: Jalen Hurts (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,000), Kyler Murray (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,500), Keenan Allen (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,500), Leonard Fournette (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500)

Here's to You, Mr. Robinson

From the Bleacher Report App

Over the summer, Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys was a top-five overall pick. James Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars wasn't even in the conversation.

Robinson being the surest thing of this group in Week 16 is 2020 in a nutshell.

Robinson is nursing an ankle injury, and he has a bad Week 16 matchup against the Chicago Bears. But Jags head coach Doug Marrone indicated Wednesday that Robinson is expected to play, and he might be able to vulture a cheap touchdown if the Jaguars can get close to the goal line.

In the other spot, the two most likely candidates in September (Elliott and James Conner of the Pittsburgh Steelers) are both out. Neither played in Week 15. Both have been significant disappointments for fantasy managers. The odds of them disappointing yet again (if they play) are just too great in a week with stakes this high.

As to Sony Michel of the Patriots, he has 304 rushing yards and one score for the season. No thanks. The play in the backfield is Darrell Henderson Jr. of the Los Angeles Rams, who should see a solid workload in a top-10 fantasy matchup against the Seahawks with Cam Akers sidelined.

Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns is third among quarterbacks in fantasy points since Week 13. He also faces a New York Jets team that ranks third in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks this season.

As great as Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers has been as a rookie, he's 21st among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring over the past three weeks.

The Call: James Robinson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800), Darrell Henderson Jr. (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,500), Baker Mayfield (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100)

A Double Order of Blah

From the Bleacher Report App

Not long ago, this quarterback "decision" would have been obvious. Matthew Stafford of the Lions and Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers are proven veterans with multiple productive fantasy seasons. Six weeks ago, Mitchell Trubisky of the Bears wasn't even a starter.

Now here we are, with Trubisky as arguably the best fantasy option of the trio.

Trubisky isn't a sure thing, and his fantasy ceiling isn't great. But Stafford has a rib injury and clearly isn't 100 percent. Roethlisberger (and the Steelers offense as a whole) have looked terrible as of late.

Add in that Trubisky faces a Jaguars team giving up the most fantasy points in the AFC to quarterbacks, and he's in.

So is Stafford, injury or not. There's just no way you can count on Roethlisberger in Week 16. The 38-year-old has thrown for less than 200 yards in each of the last two games, and Pittsburgh is facing a stout Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 21st in fantasy points given up under center.

The flex spot offers similarly unappealing options. Mecole Hardman of the Kansas City Chiefs has a high fantasy ceiling but no floor. Allen Lazard of the Green Bay Packers is a low-upside play even in a favorable matchup. Colts running back Nyheim Hines has a brutal matchup with the Steelers this week.

The best play here (and "best" is a relative term) is Lynn Bowden Jr. of the Miami Dolphins. The hybrid RB/WR is averaging eight targets per game over the last two weeks and gets a soft Las Vegas defense on Saturday.

The Call: Matthew Stafford (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,600), Mitchell Trubisky (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700), Lynn Bowden (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,900)

What Can Brown Do for You?

From the Bleacher Report App

Nothing says Christmas quite like crushing dreams.

The wide receiver call here is a tough one, but it's tough for a good reason. Both A.J. Brown of the Tennessee Titans and Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings have been excellent in 2020. They each rank inside the top 10 at the position in PPR points.

Given that the pair are separated by less than 10 points for the season, the tiebreaker here is the matchup. Browns and the Titans are on the road against a Green Bay Packers team allowing the eighth-fewest PPR points to wide receivers this year. Thielen and the Vikings are on the road on Christmas Day against a Saints team giving up the 10th-fewest points per game to wideouts.

Add in that Thielen leads the pair (slightly) in targets and points, and he gets the nod.

For the flex spot, I've long been a proponent of deferring to running backs in these situations. Touches equal opportunity, and running backs get more touches. Chris Carson of the Seattle Seahawks has also had 15 or more touches in three straight games and more than 95 total yards in two of the last three weeks.

But in Week 16, Carson faces a Los Angeles Rams defense that ranks second in the NFL against the run. The Rams have also given up the sixth-fewest PPR points to running backs in 2020.

Given that, the wiser call is sitting Carson and slotting Brown as the flex.

The Call: Adam Thielen (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,100), A.J. Brown (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,600)

DraftKings DFS Question of the Week

From the Bleacher Report App

It's a good week for matchup plays at quarterback. There are several viable options available to fantasy managers in Week 16.

That Baker Mayfield of the Browns is the priciest quarterback of this quartet speaks to just how scorching-hot the third-year pro has been as of late. But in DraftKings scoring, the Jets have been just a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season. There are other options available with similar upside and a lower price point.

Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons will likely be forced to the air early and often Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed the sixth-most DK points to the position. But Ryan and the Atlanta offense have been inconsistent, and the Falcons will likely be without Julio Jones.

Mitchell Trubisky of the Bears has strengthened his case to stick around in Chicago with his play over the past few weeks. He also gets a primo matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. But winning a million bucks requires a big score, and Trubisky hasn't hit even 275 passing yards in a game this season.

No, the play here is Jared Goff of the Rams. Last week's gaffe against the New York Jets has left the Rams in desperation mode this week against a Seattle team that has allowed the second-most DK points to quarterbacks.

In fact, it isn't a bad idea to stack Goff and Robert Woods and/or Cooper Kupp this week.

The Call: Jared Goff (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)

Rapid Fire

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Now it's time to load up the sleigh, hitch up the reindeer and bang out some more Bleacher Report App questions in rapid-fire style.

Have more Week 16 lineup questions? Leave them in the comments. I try to spend at least a few hours there every Friday or Saturday to assist readers in setting their lineups.

It's how I channel my inner Santa.

yankeesfan1213 is looking for some running back help. "Pick 2, PPR. Jonathan Taylor, David Johnson, D'Andre Swift or Myles Gaskin?"

Gaskin is back at practice, but there's no telling how many touches he will see this week. D'Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions has played better as of late, but he faces Tampa's league-leading run defense in Week 16. David Johnson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100) of the Houston Texans gets a much weaker Bengals defense on Sunday, while Jonathan Taylor (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,300) of the Indianapolis Colts has earned every-week start status at this point after blowing up over the last month.

It's the wide receiver spot for matthew_allan. "Rashard Higgins or CeeDee Lamb? Standard league."

Were this PPR, it might be a closer call. But without that point per catch, the wide receiver with the better touchdown upside has the edge. That's CeeDee Lamb (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300) of the Dallas Cowboys, who faces a Philadelphia Eagles secondary that has struggled at times this season.

Back to running backs with maxpenach1011. "Pollard, DJ, (Le'Veon Bell) or Wilson? Pick one."

Tony Pollard of the Cowboys, David Johnson of the Texans and Jeff Wilson Jr. of the San Francisco 49ers all have at least a measure of fantasy upside in Week 16. But with Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the shelf, Le'Veon Bell (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800) of the Kansas City Chiefs will get a full workload against an Atlanta Falcons team that is hardly a defensive powerhouse.

m­_coil has a quarterback controversy. "For the league championship. (Russell) Wilson or (Justin) Herbert?"

In his first meeting with the Los Angeles Rams this year, Russell Wilson (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,300) of the Seattle Seahawks finished with only 248 passing yards, no touchdown passes and two interceptions. But Justin Herbert's numbers have slipped as of late, and Wilson is a weekly threat to post the kind of line that can win you a title.

nyk has a flex question. "(Leonard) Fournette, Mike Davis (if CMC out) or Brandin Cooks?"

Houston Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks is an easy pass because of a lack of touches. Mike Davis of the Panthers has posted pedestrian yardage numbers the last several weeks and gets a tough fantasy matchup for running backs with Washington. That leaves Tampa Bay's Leonard Fournette (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500) against Detroit's non-existent run defense.

It's running backs again with boaz_greenfield. "JK Dobbins or Myles Gaskin?"

Myles Gaskin of the Dolphins gets a choice matchup with the Raiders, but there's no telling how his workload will shake out in his first game back. Baltimore's J.K. Dobbins (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200) has double-digit touches and a touchdown in four straight games ahead of a top-10 fantasy matchup this week against the New York Giants.

Finally, aig14 has a defense question. "Bills or Bears defense?"

Buffalo's Week 16 opponent (the New England Patriots) has allowed slightly more fantasy points to defenses this year than the Jaguars squad that hosts the Bears. But Chicago is the better defensive team, and Jacksonville looked atrocious last week against the Ravens. The Chicago Bears (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,600) may well be the No. 1 defensive play overall in Week 16.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!

DFS player salaries courtesy of DraftKings. Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday. Fantasy points per game against data courtesy of My Fantasy League.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year.

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