MLB Playoffs 2020: Round-by-Round Picks and Predictions

For now, the only thing that can be said about the 2020 Major League Baseball postseason with 100 percent accuracy is that it will be unlike any other in the league's history.

As for how it will all shake out, that's where we can only hope to be accurate.

The time has indeed come to lay out our predictions for this year's playoffs, which, in case anyone missed it, consist of 16 teams (up from 10) and four series (up from three). The schedule breaks down like so: 

• Sept. 29-Oct. 2: Wild Card (Best of 3)
• Oct. 5-10: Division Series (Best of 5)
• Oct. 11-18: Championship Series (Best of 7)
• Oct. 20-28: World Series (Best of 7)

In making our picks, we considered how well equipped teams are to survive the marathon-like sprint to the finish and how their strengths and weaknesses match up against those of the opposition.

Let's take it away.    

AL Wild Card Round

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Toronto Blue Jays (8) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (1)

After a slow start, the Blue Jays capped 2020 with a 25-17 record down the stretch. Hyun Jin Ryu and Taijuan Walker are a solid rotation duo, and Toronto's youth-laden offense was one of the better ones in MLB during the aforementioned stretch run.

The Rays, though, were the best team in the American League this season. That plus their 21-9 record against winning clubs point to how much depth they have on both sides of the ball and to how well manager Kevin Cash is at using his many weapons. They should handle Toronto.

Rays in 3

Chicago White Sox (7) vs. Oakland Athletics (2)

Speaking of records against winning clubs, the A's played just six games against such teams and won only two of them. It's hard not to be alarmed by that, and then there are the matters of Oakland's relatively weak starting pitching and an offense that wasn't great even before it lost Matt Chapman (hip).

On the heels of their 13-12 run through September, the White Sox aren't without their own red flags. Yet they can count on aces Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel after they teamed up for a 2.79 ERA, and Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson are but two of many threats in a deep and powerful offense.

White Sox in 2

Houston Astros (6) vs. Minnesota Twins (3)

Though the Twins won a second straight AL Central title, they did it in spite of an offense that wasn't nearly as overpowering as it was in 2019. Yet their offense is coming off a strong September, and it's backed by an underrated pitching staff that finished fourth in MLB with a 3.58 ERA.

Despite their 29-31 record, the Astros might have a shot if their offense reverts back to its MLB-best form of the prior three seasons. But there's basically no indication that this is in the offing, and Houston's pitching doesn't look much better sans Justin Verlander (elbow) and Roberto Osuna (elbow).

Twins in 2

New York Yankees (5) vs. Cleveland (4)

If Cleveland wins this series, it will almost certainly be because of Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco and/or Zach Plesac. The three aces combined for a 2.24 ERA and a rate of 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings in the regular season.

But the Yankees boast a lineup capable of giving those three trouble, especially if Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton reassert themselves. Plus, Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ were pretty good (i.e., a 3.22 ERA) in their own right, and they'll face one of baseball's worst offenses in this series.

Yankees in 3    

NL Wild Card Round

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Milwaukee Brewers (8) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

With fully functioning versions of Corbin Burnes and Christian Yelich, the Brewers would have a shot at taking down the Dodgers after the latter's epic 43-win season. Alas, Burnes (oblique) is hurt, and Yelich's struggles have rendered Milwaukee's offense generally punchless.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, used one of baseball's top offenses and arguably its best pitching staff to outscore opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game. A determined team might eventually reveal that the Dodgers weren't especially battle-tested in the regular season, but it probably won't be Milwaukee.

Dodgers in 2

Cincinnati Reds (7) vs. Atlanta (2)

Led by Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta's offense was red-hot in September to the tune of a league-best .887 OPS. Between this and its generally unsung bullpen, Atlanta has two sturdy foundations for a deep playoff run.

Because of aces Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray—who had a 2.80 ERA this season—the Reds would have a shot at upsetting Atlanta in a longer series. But Atlanta's duo of Max Fried and Ian Anderson make for a strong counter (2.14 ERA) in a mere three-game series, and Cincinnati's disappointing offense is outclassed in this matchup.

Atlanta in 3

Miami Marlins (6) vs. Chicago Cubs (3)

Though the Marlins are saddled with a below-average offense, they might not be doomed opposite a Cubs offense that's fresh off a National League-low .645 OPS in September. To boot, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Sixto Sanchez are a dangerous rotation trio.

But in Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks—who posted a 2.46 ERA this year—both of this series' top starters belong to the North Siders. Their bullpen is also coming in hot after mustering a 2.96 ERA in September. So even if their bats keep silent, the Cubs stand a good chance of riding their arms to victory in this one.

Cubs in 3

St. Louis Cardinals (5) vs. San Diego Padres (4)

The Padres offense slowed down in September (.735 OPS) as Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer and others cooled off. Yet said offense was one of baseball's best on the whole, and San Diego's pitching is coming off an MLB-best 3.15 ERA in September despite biceps injuries to Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger.

To be sure, those injuries would loom larger if the Padres were up against a more threatening offensive team. But the Cardinals simply don't match that description. And sans Dakota Hudson (elbow) and with a struggling Jack Flaherty (4.91 ERA), the Cards might not have the goods to out-pitch the Padres.

Padres in 2      

ALDS: New York Yankees (5) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (1)

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

If the Yankees and Rays do indeed meet in the American League Division Series, the Rays would rightfully feel confident in their ability to outlast their high-priced rivals.

The Rays claimed eight of the 10 games that the two clubs played during the regular season. That had much to do with how their pitchers held New York's hitters to just a .683 OPS.

The Rays will, however, be in trouble if the Yankees can force them into more of an offensive series. Tampa Bay's offense was more good than great in the regular season, and it comes with a fatal flaw: Only Detroit Tigers hitters struck out more frequently.

Gerrit Cole can certainly take advantage of that. So can relievers like Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino and Chad Green, who whiffed 12.8 batters per nine innings this season.

Of course, there would still be the question of whether the Yankees offense can improve against Tampa Bay's arms. After conjuring a .793 OPS in September even without much input from Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, that should be doable.     

Yankees in 5   

ALDS: Chicago White Sox (7) vs. Minnesota Twins (3)

Craig Lassig/Associated Press

A matchup between the White Sox and Twins in the ALDS would also have a "been there, done that" vibe to it. They played 10 times this season as part of their AL Central rivalry.

That the two clubs split those 10 contests speaks to how well they match up against one another. At their best, the Twins can beat you with either pitching or offense. At their own best, ditto for the White Sox.

It is noteworthy, though, that the Twins outscored the White Sox by 12 runs despite their eventual push in the win-loss column. White Sox hitters were rendered mortal (.727 OPS) by Twins pitchers, and that could carry over to October because of the specific dynamics of this matchup.

White Sox hitters feasted against fastballs in 2020 and especially against high-velocity fastballs. That's not Minnesota's game, as its pitchers ranked 29th in MLB in both fastball percentage and velocity.

If Twins hurlers were to double down on that approach in the ALDS, the team would only need its Nelson Cruz-, Josh Donaldson- and Byron Buxton-led offense to live up to its billing in order to take the series.

Twins in 5      

NLDS: San Diego Padres (4) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

Ashley Landis/Associated Press

The Dodgers are the de facto favorite to win the World Series, but the Padres will be a threat to them if the two clubs meet in the National League Division Series.

The Padres' 119 OPS+ placed just behind the Dodgers' 121 mark. If Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eric Hosmer snap out of their slumps while Manny Machado, Wil Myers and Trent Grisham stay hot, San Diego would more than be able to hang with the Dodgers offensively.

San Diego's pitching also got better as the year went along, culminating in the previously mentioned MLB-best 3.15 ERA in September. If Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger are fully recovered come the NLDS round, those good times might continue.

Yet it's not a given that Clevinger will be available at all, and the Padres don't know how Lamet's own aching biceps will behave going forward. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have shockingly few things to worry about in their elite and well-balanced moundstaff.

Pitching alone could therefore tip things in Los Angeles' favor, and then there's the reality that its offense can be even better if Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy finally settle into grooves.    

Dodgers in 4

NLDS: Chicago Cubs (3) vs. Atlanta (2)

John Amis/Associated Press

Whereas Atlanta can hope to ride Max Fried and Ian Anderson through the first round of the playoffs, the later rounds hypothetically pose more of a challenge for its starting rotation.

Again, those two hurlers had an ERA barely north of 2.00 in the regular season. On the whole, though, Atlanta's rotation nonetheless finished with a 5.51 ERA. So it went in September, in which Atlanta starters had a 5.57 ERA.

But would the Cubs be able to exploit Atlanta's starting-pitching deficiency in the NLDS?

Maybe if their offense were as good as it should be, but that hasn't been the case all year and especially not lately. From August 14 through the end of the year, Chicago's offense was one of the worst in MLB.

Atlanta's offense has been trending in the opposite direction, and it's not as if the Cubs are well-stocked with pitching depth. Indeed, there isn't enough in between aces Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks and closer Jeremy Jeffress for Chicago to have a hope of completely silencing Atlanta's bats.

Atlanta in 3       

ALCS: New York Yankees (5) vs. Minnesota Twins (3)

Craig Lassig/Associated Press

The notion of a Yankees-Twins matchup in the American League Championship Series might have fans of the former grinning and fans of the latter going, "Oh no..."

New York and Minnesota have met six times in the playoffs since 2003. All six of those series went to the Yankees and how. They've won 16 out of 18 games, including each of the last 13 since Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS.

This time around, however, the Twins could hope to beat the Yankees in the same manner they would have beaten the White Sox. The Yankees offense likewise does the bulk of its damage against fastballs, which, to reiterate, Twins pitchers generally don't throw that often.

In that scenario, Minnesota's offense would simply need to keep from going into a slump of its own. That's where the Yankees' relative shortage of quality starting pitchers could be a deciding factor. Jordan Montgomery and Deivi Garcia, who had a 5.06 ERA in the regular season, round out New York's rotation.

Bottom line: If ever there was a year for the Twins to get revenge on the Yankees, it's 2020.

Twins in 6            

NLCS: Atlanta (2) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

Ashley Landis/Associated Press

Albeit to a lesser extent than the Twins, Atlanta would also be out for revenge if it found itself matched against the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

The two clubs met in the NLDS in 2013 and again in 2018. Both series went to the Dodgers, with Atlanta winning only one game in each of them.

Atlanta's best hope of beating the Dodgers this October would reside in its offense. It's arguably the best in baseball right now, and its star trio of Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuna Jr. (1.058 OPS) is better than the Dodgers' trio of Mookie Betts, Corey Seager and Justin Turner (.916 OPS).

Yet there's little question that Atlanta would be at a disadvantage on the pitching side. The Dodgers' front five starters each made at least eight starts and bested a 120 ERA+, whereas only Max Fried did so for Atlanta. And as good as Atlanta's pen was in the regular season (3.50 ERA), Los Angeles' was better with a 2.74 ERA.

In all likelihood, the Dodgers' huge pitching edge would overrule Atlanta's relatively slight offensive edge.

Dodgers in 5    

World Series: Minnesota Twins (3) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The one and only time the Twins and Dodgers met in the World Series was in 1965, which famously ended with Sandy Koufax pitching a three-hit shutout in Game 7.

For the Twins to settle the score, their offense would have to rise to Los Angeles' level, and their pitching would have to carry over the form that led the team past Chicago and New York. Given the level of talent that the Twins have on both sides, neither would be a long shot.

However, a fastball-light model probably wouldn't work as well against the Dodgers. Their offense is one of the best at hitting breaking and offspeed pitches, especially in context of its expected production. Were the Twins to dial up the heaters, well, the Dodgers hit those too.

What could turn the series is if Clayton Kershaw reacquaints himself with his October demons. But that's not something to take for granted. The southpaw has been in vintage form this year. And contrary to previous Octobers, this year's shortened schedule should leave some gas in his tank for the World Series.

Ultimately, the Dodgers could simply be too much for the Twins. After L.A.'s failed efforts in 2017 and '18, the result would be the Boys in Blue finally snapping a championship drought that dates back to 1988.

Dodgers in 7

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.