Ranking Every Projected Game 1 Starting Pitcher for MLB Playoff Contenders

An offense-dependent team is not incapable of winning the World Series, but strong starting pitching remains a tried-and-true recipe for postseason success.

In this year's best-of-three Wild Card Series, which will kick off the postseason, winning Game 1 will be paramount. Otherwise, teams will be forced to win back-to-back elimination games after presumably having burned their best pitcher.

So which players will be tasked with those crucial starts?

Ahead we've predicted the Game 1 starter for each of the 16 teams slotted in postseason spots and ranked them based on their performances this season, postseason track records and outlooks heading into October.

Let's get to it.

16. RHP Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The San Francisco Giants signed Kevin Gausman to a one-year, $9 million contract in an effort to extract some value out of one of the more intriguing bounce-back candidates on the free-agent market.

They ended up finding a staff ace.

Gausman struggled to a 6.19 ERA in 16 starts with the Atlanta Braves last season before he was waived. He closed the season with 29 strikeouts in 22.1 innings while pitching primarily out of the bullpen for the Cincinnati Reds.

That swing-and-miss stuff and his track record of success made him a worthwhile roll of the dice for a team in need of starting pitching.

After making his final regular season start Thursday, he finished 3-3 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 77-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 58.2 innings.

"That'd be awesome," Gausman told reporters of a potential Game 1 start. "Obviously, I wish it was a normal postseason where there'd be 45,000-plus fans and really be the playoff atmosphere that you dream of. It would be an honor to take the ball in Game 1, but we also have a lot of really good pitchers on this team, so you know we'll see the way it lines up. But most importantly, we got to get there first."

The 29-year-old has never started a postseason game, tallying four relief appearances in the playoffs during his time with the Braves and Baltimore Orioles.

15. LHP Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The logical choice to start Game 1 for the Oakland Athletics would have been Chris Bassitt.

The 31-year-old is 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA that ranks third among qualified American League starters, and he has four straight quality starts.

However, the Athletics opted to start him Friday against the Seattle Mariners, which put him in line to start Game 2.

Instead, it looks like it will be Sean Manaea, who allowed three earned runs in six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, or Jesus Luzardo, who pitched three innings of relief Thursday in a tune-up before the playoffs.

"We just wanted to keep [Luzardo] on a regular turn like this would be and keep our options opened in the end," Oakland manager Bob Melvin told reporters.

The 22-year-old pitched his way onto the postseason roster last year after making his MLB debut as a September call-up, and he worked three scoreless innings of relief in the AL Wild Card Game.

The left-hander has the stuff to dominate when everything is clicking, and the stage won't be too big for him after last year's taste of playoff action.

14. RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Sandy Alcantara was an All-Star last season when he posted a 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 151 strikeouts in 197.1 innings while tossing a pair of shutouts.

The 25-year-old has continued his development into a long-term piece of the Miami Marlins rotation this season, and he's thrown the ball particularly well in September.

After allowing six hits and two earned runs in 7.1 innings against the New York Yankees on Friday, he has a 2.30 ERA in 31.1 innings spanning five starts this month.

He will likely be followed by Pablo Lopez and electric rookie Sixto Sanchez in the postseason, giving the Marlins a formidable trio of starters to anchor their playoff push.

"Miami's top three starters—Sixto Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez—are all 25 or younger and totally unproven in this environment. But they have the stuff to give opposing lineups fits," Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com wrote.

After making the Opening Day start back on July 24, Alcantara has earned the right to take the ball in Game 1 of the postseason as well.

13. RHP Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals

Morry Gash/Associated Press

With Adam Wainwright scheduled to make his final regular season start Saturday, there's little debate who will take the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1.

Jack Flaherty put together a second half for the ages in 2019, and he pitched well in two National League Division Series starts last year before running into trouble in the National League Championship Series.

The 24-year-old has had a down year at surface level with a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 innings, but those numbers are inflated by a disastrous start against the Milwaukee Brewers on Sept. 15, when he allowed nine earned runs in three innings.

Outside that implosion, he has a 3.13 ERA in eight starts, and his 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings speak to the quality of his stuff.

The Cardinals could throw a curveball and go with left-hander Kwang Hyun Kim, who has posted a 1.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 39 innings this season, but the smart money is on Flaherty to take the ball in Game 1.

12. LHP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Blake Snell threw a season-high 108 pitches in his final regular season start Tuesday, allowing six hits and three earned runs while striking out nine in 5.2 innings against the New York Mets.

"The pitch count, that's not the worst thing that the pitch count got to where it was," Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters. "He's going to have some extra rest now, and just to be able to get out there for 105-110 pitches, that's not something that we've done too often with him this year."

The 27-year-old did not reach six innings in any of his 11 starts this season, but he pitched well, going 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 63 strikeouts in 50 innings.

A terrific relief corps that ranks fourth in the majors in ERA (3.50) and third in innings (254.1) was a big reason for the consistently early hooks, and that approach will no doubt continue into October.

Snell started Game 2 of an American League Division Series against the Houston Astros last year, allowing four hits and one earned run in 3.1 innings. He then picked up the final two outs to record a save in Game 4 before throwing 1.1 scoreless innings of relief in Game 5.

11. LHP Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

John Amis/Associated Press

Is Max Fried going to be 100 percent for his Game 1 start?

If the answer to that question were a definitive "yes," then he would rank several spots higher on this list after going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 56 innings in a breakout season atop the Atlanta Braves rotation.

However, he landed on the 10-day injured list earlier this month with back spasms and in his final start of the regular season Wednesday lasted just one inning after tweaking his left ankle while fielding a bunt.

He stayed in the game and gave up back-to-back home runs and a double before getting out of the inning. It was the first two long balls he allowed all season.

Despite the shaky conclusion to the regular season, he's penciled in for the Game 1 start.

"For the most part, he's going to be fine," Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos told MLB Network. "The fact we had a week before Game 1 of the playoffs, just give him some rest, rehabilitation, we'll come up with some kind of bullpen [session] or [simulated] game for him before Game 1. He'll be good to go."

Given all the issues the Braves have had with their starting rotation, there's not a better option.

10. RHP Zack Greinke, Houston Astros

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

On the surface, it was a down year for Zack Greinke.

Thrust into the role of staff ace for the Houston Astros with Justin Verlander on the shelf and Gerrit Cole wearing pinstripes, Greinke finished 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 12 starts.

However, a 2.80 FIP that ranks second among qualified AL starters paints a better picture of his effectiveness.

He has once again demonstrated pinpoint command with just nine walks in 67 innings, and his 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings actually represent a significant uptick from the 8.1 K/9 he posted last season while splitting the year between Houston and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The 36-year-old also has a wealth of postseason experience with a 4.21 ERA in 92 career playoff innings, including a 2.95 ERA over four starts in the American League Championship Series and World Series last year.

9. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Toronto Blue Jays gave Hyun-Jin Ryu a four-year, $80 million contract during the offseason to serve as the ace of the staff for a team on the rise.

That's exactly what he's done.

The 33-year-old went 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 72 strikeouts in 67 innings, putting the finishing touches on an impressive regular season with seven shutout innings against the New York Yankees on Thursday to help Toronto clinch a playoff berth.

His past postseason performance is a mixed bag: a 4.05 ERA in eight career starts. He earned the win in Game 3 of an NLDS last year, though, allowing four hits and two earned runs in five innings against the Washington Nationals.

The Blue Jays will ask him to shoulder a significant load if they make a push this October.

8. RHP Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Yu Darvish has had an excellent season for the Chicago Cubs and threw seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox on Friday, so he is certainly a candidate to take the ball in Game 1.

Kyle Hendricks, however, has once again put together a strong season of his own, and few players can match his postseason track record.

The 30-year-old leads the National League with 81.1 innings, which has helped take some pressure off a Chicago Cubs bullpen that has endured ups and downs this year.

He has walked just eight batters for an NL-best 0.9 walks per nine innings, and he also ranks among the top 10 in ERA (2.88, ninth) and WHIP (1.00, fourth).

On top of those strong numbers, he also has a 2.98 ERA in 51.1 career playoff innings, and he had a 1.42 ERA in five starts during the 2016 postseason to help lead the Cubs to the World Series title.

There's not much that could rattle a pitcher who has started Game 7 of a Fall Classic, and that's why he's the leading candidate to start Game 1 over NL Cy Young Award candidate Darvish.

7. RHP Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

Jim Mone/Associated Press

After a breakout 2019 season in which he finished sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting, Lucas Giolito has continued his ascension as one of the sport's bona fide aces.

The 26-year-old went 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 97 strikeouts in 72.1 innings, whiffing at least nine batters in six of his 12 starts.

He threw the first no-hitter of the season Aug. 25 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he struck out 11 against the Cleveland Indians in his final regular-season outing Wednesday.

His rise, coupled with the offseason addition of Dallas Keuchel, gives the Chicago White Sox a one-two punch in October that stacks up to any in baseball as they embark on a title chase.

"It's going to take us playing loose, playing relaxed, playing to have fun," Giolito told reporters. "That's what we were doing all year, and we were winning a lot of games. We know how good we are. And so we just need to kind of maintain that mentality going forward. I think we'll be in a good spot."

6. RHP Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins

Jim Mone/Associated Press

What a pickup Kenta Maeda has been for the Minnesota Twins.

Unhappy with his role on the Los Angeles Dodgers, Maeda was traded during the offseason for the hard-throwing Brusdar Graterol, outfielder Luke Raley and future considerations.

The 32-year-old has not allowed more than three earned runs in an outing, logging eight quality starts in 11 games.

He has walked just 10 batters in 66.2 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .168 batting average en route to an MLB-leading 0.75 WHIP. He has also struck out 80 batters to rank fifth in the AL among qualified starters with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

He has spent the last three postseasons pitching out of the bullpen, posting a 1.64 ERA and 11.0 K/9 with a 2-0 record and four holds in 21 appearances spanning 22 innings.

With Jose Berrios settling in after a rocky start to the year and Michael Pineda and Rich Hill pitching well down the stretch, the Minnesota rotation is lined up nicely for the playoffs.

5. RHP Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Note: Dinelson Lamet left Friday's start with biceps tightness. Manager Jayce Tingler told reporters the team is "pretty optimistic right now" regarding his status for Wednesday. If he can't go, Zach Davies will likely get the Game 1 start.

The San Diego Padres swung a blockbuster deal to acquire Mike Clevinger at the trade deadline, with the logic being that he would step into the role of staff ace for a young starting rotation on the rise.

But he left his Wednesday start after just one inning, and he has been diagnosed with a right elbow impingement, which leaves his status for the Wild Card Series in doubt.

That means the Game 1 start will likely fall to Dinelson Lamet.

The 28-year-old may not have the track record to justify such a high spot in these rankings, but he has been nothing short of dominant during a breakout season.

He ranks among the NL leaders in ERA (2.09, third), WHIP (0.86, third), strikeouts (93, tied for third) and opponents' batting average (.161, second), and he remains a relative unknown outside of the NL West given his limited experience prior to this season and the inter-division focus of 2020.

He'll likely be followed by Zach Davies and Chris Paddack in the Wild Card Series, and the Padres will hope Clevinger can be ready if they advance to the NLDS.

4. LHP Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The Los Angeles Dodgers have already announced Clayton Kershaw will start Game 1, and he'll be followed by Walker Buehler in Game 2, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

Shocker.

After a delayed start to the season because of back stiffness, Kershaw has returned to elite form.

The 32-year-old finished 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 58.1 innings, and he has featured a surprising uptick in his fastball velocity from 90.5 mph last year to 91.8 mph this season. That, in turn, has made his slider more effective, as David Adler of MLB.com explained.

The elephant in the room is Kershaw's postseason track record.

He has a 4.43 ERA in 158.1 career playoff innings, including a 7.27 ERA in his last four appearances (dating to the 2018 World Series).

Still, he's the best pitcher of his generation and enjoying a resurgence in his stuff, and there are plenty of October gems on his resume as well.

3. RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

Gerrit Cole ended the regular season on a high note, pitching to a 1.00 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with 34 strikeouts in 27 innings over his final four starts.

Will that momentum carry over into October?

In the first season of his nine-year, $324 million contract, Cole went 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 94 strikeouts in 73 innings, throwing a pair of complete games and a shutout.

He did give up an AL-leading 14 home runs, which represented an uptick from 1.2 to 1.7 long balls per nine innings, but he pitched around those mistakes to record eight quality starts in 12 appearances.

The 30-year-old was brilliant in the postseason last year, going at least seven innings in each of his five starts and posting a 1.72 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 36.2 innings.

No longer part of a rotation with Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, he will be asked to take on an ever more significant role if the New York Yankees make a World Series run.

2. RHP Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Doster/Associated Press

Trevor Bauer has been pitching like a man on a mission all season.

After allowing just four hits and one earned run in eight innings Wednesday while striking out 12 on three days' rest, here's where he ranks on the NL leaderboard:

• ERA: 1.73, 1st
• WHIP: 0.79, 1st
• K: 100, 1st
• BAA: .159, 1st

Not bad.

There's a chance he could pitch again on short rest Sunday if the Cincinnati Reds are still battling for a playoff spot, which would obviously take him out of the running for the Game 1 start.

For now, he earns the No. 2 spot on our list, trailing only a pitcher who has simply been on another level throughout the season.

1. RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Who else?

Shane Bieber will be making his postseason debut, so he doesn't bring the playoff experience to the table of many of the pitchers on this list.

However, it's impossible to put anyone else at No. 1 after the phenomenal regular season the Cleveland Indians ace put together.

The 25-year-old allowed two hits and one unearned run while striking out 10 in five innings in a tune-up Wednesday, marking the eighth time in 12 starts he recorded double-digit punchouts.

He leads the majors in ERA (1.63) and strikeouts (122), and Cleveland is 10-2 in games he started—compared to 23-22 when anyone else takes the ball.

He will likely win AL Cy Young Award honors unanimously and remains an MVP candidate in a year in which he has been asked to carry the starting rotation after Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger were all traded.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.