Week 2 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over-Under Predictions for Sunday

The Atlanta Falcons defense did not inspire much confidence in Week 1, as it was gashed for 38 points and 383 total yards by the Seattle Seahawks. 

Dan Quinn's side does not get a respite in Week 2 in its matchup with a Dallas Cowboys offense that was supposed to be one of the most explosive in the NFL. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Co. managed just 17 points in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams, but they have high expectations to score in bunches Sunday. 

The largest over/under total for Week 2 has been assigned to the Falcons' visit to AT&T Stadium, and there are signs the matchup could hit a high total. 

The expectations are much lower for the Buffalo Bills, but they could be in line to take advantage of a second straight AFC East contest and produce a sizable amount of points Sunday. 

Week 2 NFL Schedule and Odds

Sunday, September 20

Buffalo (-5.5) at Miami (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 41)

Denver at Pittsburgh (-7) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 40.5)

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 44)

New York Giants at Chicago (-5.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 42)

Atlanta at Dallas (-4.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 53.5)

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-8) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 47.5)

Detroit at Green Bay (-6.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 49.5)

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia (-1.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 45.5)

Minnesota at Indianapolis (-3) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 49)

San Francisco (-7) at New York Jets (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 41.5)

Washington at Arizona (-7) (4:05 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 46.5)

Kansas City (-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 47.5)

Baltimore (-7.5) at Houston (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 50)

New England at Seattle (-4) (8:20 p.m., NBC) (O/U: 45)

Monday, September 21

New Orleans (-5.5) at Las Vegas (8:15 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 48.5)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Projections against the spread in bold.

Over-Under Predictions

Atlanta at Dallas (Over 53.5)

Although the Cowboys put up 17 points in Week 1, they posted 380 total yards and benefited from a steady dose of Elliott on the ground. 

Elliott may be the key factor to push the total over Sunday if he adds a few receptions to his already high workload out of the backfield. 

The Dallas running back caught three of his four targets for 31 yards and a score against the Los Angeles Rams, and he could be used more often across the middle with tight end Blake Jarwin out injured. 

If Elliott keeps a linebacker or safety occupied in the passing game, Prescott could have one-on-one matchups to exploit through Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb against a Falcons passing defense that conceded 299 yards in the Week 1 loss to Seattle. Twenty-five of the 39 passes thrown by Prescott went in the direction of his top three receivers in Week 1. 

Dating back to Week 12 of 2019, the Falcons have allowed over 20 points to all but one of their opponents. 

In the same span, the Matt Ryan-led offense eclipsed the 20-point mark on six occasions in seven games. 

Ryan targeted each of his top three receivers on 12 occasions in Week 1, and he could find some mismatches with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage against a Dallas defense that let Rams quarterback Jared Goff throw for 269 yards. 

If Ryan mixes up his targets again and receives a decent dose of Todd Gurley out of the backfield, the Falcons could have enough firepower to make up for any defensive shortcomings and match Dallas' production.

Buffalo at Miami (Over 41)

Buffalo's 404-yard Week 1 performance flew under the national radar a bit because that total occurred against the New York Jets. The Bills could be in for a similarly high total in Week 2 against another weaker AFC East foe, though. 

In their two games against Miami in 2019, the Bills eclipsed the 30-point mark and produced 729 total yards. Although Miami made defensive improvements in the offseason, it may take some time for the chemistry to come together with no preseason reps. 

Miami showed some defensive lapses in its opening loss to New England, and it could face another tough task on the ground against Buffalo. The Dolphins allowed 217 rushing yards as part of their concession of 357 total yards. 

The Bills have a mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, and the addition of Zack Moss to the backfield led by Devin Singletary makes them a tougher team to defend. If that three-pronged attack opens up the Miami defense and Allen is able to drop a few deep passes in to Stefon Diggs and others, Buffalo could once again have its way with the Dolphins defense. 

For the over to hit, the Dolphins need to score a touchdown or two. That is possible if they drop their turnover count from the three they had in Week 1. If that happens, the Dolphins should provide enough support for the over to hit on one of the smallest totals of Week 2. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.