Week 1 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions for Opening Schedule

The Indianapolis Colts have one of the most favorable Week 1 matchups, but they may be difficult to play in spread and moneyline bets because of the expectations placed on them.

The best way to approach betting on the Colts on Sunday is to find a handful of props that could go over against a lackluster Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Frank Reich's offense is expected to have the ball for a large chunk of time, and it could be inclined to run the ball more since the biggest mismatch in its favor comes on the interior.

The Dallas Cowboys are also projected to put up one of Sunday's highest totals in its matchup with the Los Angeles Rams because of the depth they added around quarterback Dak Prescott in the offseason. If Prescott combines well with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup from the start, he could cruise past the over/under set for his touchdown total.

NFL Week 1 Schedule and Odds

Sunday, September 13

Cleveland at Baltimore (-7.5) (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (Over/Under: 47.5)

Indianapolis (-8) at Jacksonville (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 46)

Miami at New England (-7) (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 41.5)

Las Vegas (-3) at Carolina (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 48)

New York Jets at Buffalo (-7) (1 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 39.5)

Chicago at Detroit (-2.5) (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 42.5)

Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5) (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 45)

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Washington (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 42)

Seattle (-1.5) at Atlanta (1 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 49)

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS) (O/U: 42)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5) (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 47.5)

Arizona at San Francisco (-6.5) (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) (O/U: 48)

Dallas (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) (O/U: 51.5)

Monday, September 14

Pittsburgh (-6) at New York Giants (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) (O/U: 46)

Tennessee (-3) at Denver (10:10 p.m. ET, ESPN) (O/U: 41)

Predictions against the spread in bold.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Top Prop Bets

Marlon Mack Rushing Yards (Over 54.5)

It is hard to throw around the guarantee tag for Week 1 bets, so we will just strongly suggest you consider Marlon Mack's rushing yards total as one of your best props.

Mack totaled 186 rushing yards on 29 carries in his two meetings with the Jaguars in 2019.

Jacksonville's defense appears to be susceptible to more yardage concessions in 2020 given it was gutted in the offseason, with the departures list headlined by Yannick Ngakoue's trade to the Minnesota Vikings.

Doug Marrone's team allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in 2019 with Ngakoue in place on one side of the defensive line. Since Jacksonville has opted to go with younger replacements for one of the best defensive ends in the NFL, Indianapolis may have its way in the trenches.

The Quenton Nelson-led offensive line paved the way for 2,130 rushing yards a year ago, which was the seventh-highest total in the NFL. The Colts also scored 17 touchdowns on the ground and averaged 4.5 yards per carry.

The Colts are up to -400 (bet $400 to win $100) on the moneyline and the spread has grown to eight points.

If you do not feel comfortable with betting the large numbers, Mack's rushing-yard total is one of the few props to take advantage of. In fact, Mack's total comes at a better value than that for rookie Jonathan Taylor, whose first rushing-yard prop comes in at 58.5.

If the Colts use their veteran running back while easing the second-round pick into the game, Mack could post a high total before halftime.

Dak Prescott Touchdown Passes (Over 1.5)

Prescott is going to be one of the most popular players in fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy football contests and player prop bets all season.

Dallas returns a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Cooper and Gallup, and it drafted Lamb from a high-scoring offense at Oklahoma.

Mike McCarthy's appointment as head coach should also benefit Prescott throughout the season, as he achieved a wealth of success with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.

A year ago, Prescott thrashed the New York Giants defense for 407 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. The Dallas quarterback produced multiple passing touchdowns in four of his first five games and on 10 total occasions in 2019.

Even though the Rams allowed more than 250 passing yards four times in 2019, they conceded over 20 points in half of their contests.

Prescott could pick apart the Rams secondary with his three receivers, tight end Blake Jarwin and Ezekiel Elliott out of the backfield.

L.A. may be able to shut down one target for a long stretch of the game, but it is hard to envision them silencing the entire Cowboys passing attack for 60 minutes because of their abundance of weapons.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.