No. 2 Dominic Thiem and No. 5 Alexander Zverev will face off in the U.S. Open men's singles finals after taking down their respective semifinal opponents on Friday.
Both men won in drastically different fashions. Thiem defeated 2019 U.S. Open finalist Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, although he was challenged in the final two and won both via tiebreakers.
On the flip side, Zverev looked as if he would be heading home after falling behind two sets to none, but he reverse swept No. 20 Pablo Carreno Busta and took the final three sets 6-3, 6-4 and 6-3 for the win.
Thiem and Zverev will battle for the U.S. Open title on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET, with ESPN televising the match. Until then, here's a look at the U.S. Open men's draw from the quarterfinals forward as well as a quick pick for Sunday based on a number of factors.
U.S. Open Men's Bracket Draw: Quarterfinals Through Finals
No. 2 Dominic Thiem def. No. 21 Alex de Minaur: 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
No. 3 Daniil Medvedev def. No. 10 Andrey Rublev: 7-6 (8-6), 6-3, 7-6 (7-5)
No. 5 Alexander Zverev def. No. 27 Borna Colic: 1-6, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (7-1), 6-3
No. 20 Pablo Carreno Busta def. No. 12 Denis Shapovalov: 3-6, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (7-4), 0-6, 6-3
No. 2 Dominic Thiem def. No. 3 Daniil Medvedev: 6-2, 7-6 (9-7), 7-6 (7-5)
No. 5 Alexander Zverev def. No. 20 Pablo Carreno Busta: 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3
No. 2 Dominic Thiem vs. No. 5 Alexander Zverev
Source: U.S. Open official website
Thiem vs. Zverev
Head to Head
The 27-year-old Thiem owns the head-to-head matchup with the 23-year-old Zverev, seven matches to two.
On hard surfaces, Thiem is 3-1, including a four-set victory in the Australian Open semifinals, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (7-4).
Zverev's two wins came at Madrid on the clay in 2018 and in Beijing on a hard court in 2016. Thiem has won the last three matches.
Only two of Thiem's seven wins have come in straight sets, however. Those two occurred in 2019 at the Nitto ATP Finals and 2018 at the French Open quarterfinals.
Thiem has won 17 of the 27 sets he's played against Zverev.
On the DraftKings Sportsbook moneyline, Thiem is a heavy favorite to win at -375 odds ($375 bet to net $100). Per Ace Odds' odds converter, that implies a probability of winning outright at 78.9 percent.
That would seem about accurate considering Thiem's 77.7 percent win rate against Zverev and his 75.0 percent win rate on hard courts.
Thiem isn't an overwhelming favorite by any means, but he holds the clear edge going forward.
2020 U.S. Open Performance and Momentum
Thiem has largely waltzed to the final, save for a fourth-round match where he dropped a set to No. 32 Marin Cilic. He was never in serious danger of losing, though, and ended up victorious 6-2, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.
Overall, Thiem has never found himself down a set or tied at one or two sets apiece throughout the entire tournament, and that's despite facing some stiff competition in Medvedev, who was the toughest competitor he could have faced in this year's field outside No. 1 Novak Djokovic.
Thiem has won five of his six matches via straight sets (his first match ended as a walkover over Jaume Munar after going up 2-0), and only two of them have featured tiebreakers.
Zverev has endured a rougher time, as evidenced by his five-set thriller versus Carreno Busta. Only one of his six matches has ended in a straight-set winner.
The semifinal was the only five-setter, but the other four-set wins were all tied at one set apiece at one point.
He struggled a bit in his first three matches, which were against two unseeded opponents and No. 32 Adrian Mannarino. Kevin Anderson took a second set against Zverev 7-5 before the German bounced back, and then Brandon Nakashima won a second-set tiebreaker that went to 18 total points before Zverev pulled through again.
The Mannarino match proved to be the only time Zverev was down a set before the semifinals after he dropped a tiebreaker, but he took the next three with relative ease, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2.
The bottom line on Zverev is this: He frequently finds himself down (or on the wrong side of momentum midway through matches), but he's never been out just yet.
He's benefitted from the luck of the draw, though, as he didn't face a top-20 seed until the semifinals.
Granted, anyone who makes a U.S. Open field is an excellent, world-class player and athlete, but Zverev has benefitted from a less challenging road than most.
Pick: Thiem Wins in 4 Sets
If we follow the trends, then look for Thiem to win in four sets.
Chances are he'll drop at least one set to the tough Zverev, who has proved impossible to put away for all of his opponents thus far.
Thiem is on a different level than them, though, and he has the experience of making three Grand Slam finals in the past, most recently against Djokovic in the 2020 Australian Open.
This is Zverev's first time advancing this far in a Grand Slam, and while we should expect him back in a final soon, look for Thiem to emerge victorious.